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Major Hurricane Delta

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The 12z GFS has backed off on stronger shear over the N. GOM. That doesn't mean it won't come back on the next run. That being said, there is a possibility that an intense Delta might not be rapidly weakening due to shear versus just leveling off and slowly weakening upon landfall. The SSTs around 26-26.5°C several hundered miles south of the coast will definitely halt intensification or start a weakening trend, but if Delta is hauling ass northward and at Cat 3 to 4 intensity, there is a chance it could still be a major at landfall if the weakening trend starts off slowly.

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The 12z GFS has backed off on stronger shear over the N. GOM. That doesn't mean it won't come back on the next run. That being said, there is a possibility that an intense Delta might not be rapidly weakening due to shear versus just leveling off and slowly weakening upon landfall. The SSTs around 26-26.5°C several hundered miles south of the coast will definitely halt intensification or start a weakening trend, but if Delta is hauling ass northward and at Cat 3 to 4 intensity, there is a chance it could still be a major at landfall if the weakening trend starts off slowly.

we seen a few storms where projected shear near landfall never materialized even though the models said it would happen..

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

The Euro has a similar landfall point to Laura as a weak hurricane

Weakens from 968mb to 994mb before it hits.

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Looks like a given that it’ll bomb. Has the look. Can it muster a clean early ERC? Hopefully. If it dawdles a bit before getting on with things we may never get a decent second peak/landfall. 

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986mb extrapolated 55kt sfmr

The center is also at 16.1 N which is south of where most models had it.

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Very impressive pass overall. ~55kts on both sides of the eye and an obvious inner core already present. Eye and max wind radii is very small as well. If you're looking for RI, a configuration like this going into Dmax is probably how to get it.

recon_NOAA3-0126A-DELTA.png?width=610&he

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3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Cat1/2 at landfall seems to be the ceiling, even with quick forward speed:

atlpot.png

 

Hurricane Delta - "Hold my beer and watch this"

A little to early to write her / him / it off with a low intensity forecast.  If Delta gets through a full ERC and accelerates a bit you could easily be dealing with another deteriorating Cat 4 storm similar to a Katrina.  I hate that comparison, but its valid nonetheless.

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Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track

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Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track
This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through.

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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
10 minutes ago, Amped said:
Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track

This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through.

i remember when hurricane gilbert hit that area of mexico a wind gust was recorded at 218 mph...

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13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
19 minutes ago, Amped said:
Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track

This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through.

I dont know if a strike to Cancun or Cozumel weakens it much. That area is completely flat and it will have a quick forward speed at that point spending probably less than 6 hours over land. 

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12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
17 minutes ago, Amped said:
Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track

This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through.

Hard to get in the center of a pinhole eye, but Cancun is in a pretty bad spot.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Hard to get in the center of a pinhole eye, but Cancun is in a pretty bad spot.

Yeah. You have to be an elite member of the penetration club to hit the center of a pinhole. 

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