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cyclone77

October 2020 General Discussion

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3 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Rain lingered most of the night with over an inch falling and a steady temp of 34.  Changed back to snow up here around daybreak and has snowed hard at times all day.  Everything is far from froze up tho... roads are ick.

Up at my house and down at the Northern in MQT, just a block or so from the lake and a 1000' lower in elevation.

 

IMG_1404.JPG

jxj.jpg

Same look in my area. Wet at the lake, and winter in the hills.

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15 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Rain lingered most of the night with over an inch falling and a steady temp of 34.  Changed back to snow up here around daybreak and has snowed hard at times all day.  Everything is far from froze up tho... roads are ick.

Up at my house and down at the Northern in MQT, just a block or so from the lake and a 1000' lower in elevation.

 

IMG_1404.JPG

jxj.jpg

How much snow have you had so far?

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

How much snow have you had so far?

I'd estimate 15-16".

25 for the low with flurries a good deal of the night but a little steadier snow showers now.

With a few more inches possible sun/sun night, a clear cold Monday night is on tap.  Point has my low at 15 and some single digits in the interior (record low territory).

this looks fun:

The problem is that with the background flow so
weak, this isn`t a case of the typical lake-effect belts seeing snow
showers. Instead, it continues to look like there will be a band of
low-level convergence set up somewhere over the U.P. and Lake
Superior which will become the focus for a band of steady if not
heavy lake-effect snow. The question is where. Better chances right
now are between Big Bay and Munising, and perhaps as far inland as
Gwinn and Chatham. Would not be surprised to see some small part of
this area get 6"+ of snow between Sunday morning and Monday morning,
especially given SLRs will be on the high side for this time of year
as well (around 15:1 to 20:1). There should be enough northerly flow
for light lake-effect snow accumulations (an inch or perhaps two)
over the western half of the LES belts as well, especially around
IWD and the Porkies. Overall this time period should be considered
high risk for a forecast bust.
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24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Looking like a warm open to November. Hopefully this means a cold snowy December for a change

Hopefully it means an end to this highs in the 30s in Oct crap.

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Will be skiing soon enough. Today is our 4th day in a row with snow otg which has to put us in the top spot or two for October. 
 

I’ve lived in Minneapolis for a little less then five years and have already experienced the snowiest February, April and now October on record.

58F378AD-F4B1-4328-BA45-23AFE4EC94E4.jpeg

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Would be nice if the tropical remnants could do something interesting.  Looks like it could be a Louisiana or so landfall with the question afterward being how it interacts with the trough.

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On 10/23/2020 at 5:08 PM, weatherbo said:

Rain lingered most of the night with over an inch falling and a steady temp of 34.  Changed back to snow up here around daybreak and has snowed hard at times all day.  Everything is far from froze up tho... roads are ick.

Up at my house and down at the Northern in MQT, just a block or so from the lake and a 1000' lower in elevation.

 

IMG_1404.JPG

jxj.jpg

11/5/90 I had15" of concrete at my place while just a few miles away at lake level it was just white rain. And that was only about a 400 foot elev difference.

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We may very well be expecting another wet Halloween at this rate. Models are not only hinting tropical remnants this week, but also a cutoff low. This week looks worse than this past one.

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It's looking more and more like we will see snow here in October for the second year in a row. The average for FWA is once every five years with an average snowfall of a laughable 0.3".

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43 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

It's looking more and more like we will see snow here in October for the second year in a row. The average for FWA is once every five years with an average snowfall of a laughable 0.3".

When exactly do you see snow for FWA? Thursday/Friday looks wet, but not white.

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GRR on possible merging/phasing lows for late week..

Quote
Much of the upcoming week will be dry, but could be interesting
around Thursday. The developing tropical system in the Gulf is
progd to move over Louisiana Wednesday as it begins moving north.
At the same time the developing southern Plains low will be
starting to move east. The GFS has been advertising that the two
will move out separately, but the ECMWF suggests that the two may
phase a bit and move northeast. The 00z GFS suggests that the
remnant tropical system will stay south over the Ohio Valley, but
the trailing southern Plains low may be far enough northwest to
spread rain over the CWA as early as Thursday morning. The GFS
paints 1.2-1.5 inches of rain southeast of a Lansing to Kalamazoo
line. ECMWF ensembles hint at some decent rainfall too, perhaps
due to the phasing with the tropical system.

 

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It has snowed all day.  Measured 4.2" on the deck railing which I cleared off yesterday when I shoveled, and looks like another 3-4" before it tapers off by morning.  Impressive snow by October standards.  Average for the month at MQT is 6 inches.

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Not a whole lot of Gulf landfalls this late in the year as far west as Zeta looks to be.  It's even a few days later than Olga in 2019.  Juan in 1985 is one of the other ones.

Still some questions on the details of the interaction with the southern Plains system.  It sort of seems like the stronger model solutions of Zeta tend to keep it eastward and more of a distinct entity after landfall, but not sure if that is a coincidence.

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7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

When exactly do you see snow for FWA? Thursday/Friday looks wet, but not white.

With colder air dumping in early Friday, I thought maybe the departing system would spit a few flakes. In fact, my p-n-c earlier showed a rain and snow mix Friday morning. It has since been removed. Just hoping. :weenie:

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Could see rain/snow or snow showers, tonight into tomorrow morning.

Would be the first snow of the season here and for most of the metro.


.

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Another overcast Sunday. Suicide weather. Three Sundays out of four were like that this month, two with rainfall. Tomorrow will be the third overcast Monday in a row for this month. Wash, rinse, repeat. 

Have also yet to experience the first freeze of the season. The latest first freeze is on November 25, 1931.

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October has been quite warm and wet here. Already 3.23" with another rainy week with warm temps ahead.

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1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

October has been quite warm and wet here. Already 3.23" with another rainy week with warm temps ahead.

Are highs in the 50s to near 60 really that warm for October ?

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5 hours ago, Snownado said:

Are highs in the 50s to near 60 really that warm for October ?

We've been in the 70s for the most part up until this point. This week doesn't look as warm.

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Finished with a very impressive 9.1" for a storm total.  Just southeast of here, the MQT WFO set a daily record yesterday with 8.3" and a storm total of 8.9" (.72 liquid/ 12:1 ratios). The snow depth this morning is a foot up here at my house and the season total sitting at 2 feet... 20" of that falling since the 20th.

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