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October Discobs 2020

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Mentioned we might get some interesting North Atlantic weather later in October,  and it appears we may indeed get a deep bomb cyclone to form there near the 27 th., however, the exact outcome and lowest pressure are still uncertain. The 00Z GFS looks too extreme.

 

 

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What once looked like a chilly air mass later this month has now turned into more of the same with cold fading and warmth returning. 

Some asked when this new era of less snowy winters and generally warmer weather started here, well this post by bluewave is an eye opener. 

I still feel that 2016 was a turning point. 

from bluewave

<

It has been the only cooler than average part of the US since the Super El Niño in 2016.

7202061F-3EFB-4206-A117-9FAEC68F753C.png.87e54654cd8e378d33eefd74e63489a0.png
0510EC82-7D07-4C50-A3A8-7A2BF84FAFBA.png.e83e11bf7b67be3f19c844418e5b7ae8.png

>

 

 

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On 10/14/2020 at 5:48 AM, CAPE said:

If the Euro/EPS is correct, our cool down will be brief, with a return to relatively toasty temps by mid next week.

 

On 10/14/2020 at 7:27 AM, WxUSAF said:

Euro and, to some extent the ggem, dump the energy out west and don’t progress it through. Gfs and gefs keep things more progressive so we get periodic cold shots.

Euro won. Mid to upper 70s the rest of the week.

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Interesting read from LWX AFD this morning about next week... talks about high temps from upper 40s to 70s depending upon boundary position... and then has an eyebrow raising last sentence

Thereafter, forecast spread and resultant uncertainty increases
substantially within both the GEFS and EPS. The synoptic scale
pattern across North America has reasonably good agreement between
different model solutions, with troughing expected to hold across
the center of the CONUS and ridging remaining in place off the East
Coast. That will place us in southwesterly flow aloft between the
trough and the ridge. The aforementioned frontal boundary will
stall nearby, with a strong thermal contrast existing across that
boundary. Depending on the exact positioning of the boundary, highs
could range anywhere from the 70s to the 50s on Sunday, with
anywhere from the 70s to upper 40s possible on Monday. Chances for
showers will also be dependent on the position of the frontal
boundary, but it currently appears that locations across
northwestern portions of the forecast area will stand the greatest
chance to see precipitation. By later Monday into Monday Night, a
shortwave disturbance will start to descend down the backside of the
trough over the center of the country, before tracking toward the
east. This disturbance could potentially set the stage for a high
impact weather event locally toward the middle portions of next week.

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31 minutes ago, yoda said:

Interesting read from LWX AFD this morning about next week... talks about high temps from upper 40s to 70s depending upon boundary position... and then has an eyebrow raising last sentence

 

 

Its way out there, but this could be a hefty rain producer, with some potential for severe, and maybe some snow on the backside in the western highlands.

gfs_uv250_us_35.png

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3 major globals all got even slower with the boundary moving east this weekend and next week. Now they cutoff or nearly cutoff the trough in the Southwest. Depending where it sets up, we could get a bunch of rain or a lot of warm/cloudy days.

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Out vacationing on Chincoteague this week. Thanks to online schooling we can do a get away in October. And renting a house to stay distanced. After the fog burned off around noon turned into a an absolutely beautiful day for October 20th. Headed out to the beach around 3. Never thought it would be near 70 on Assateague. The Miss J's were wading in the ocean and we took a nice long walk up the beach. Thought we were going to get a nice sunset but the marine layer rolled on in. We are on the bay side up the neck.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

3 major globals all got even slower with the boundary moving east this weekend and next week. Now they cutoff or nearly cutoff the trough in the Southwest. Depending where it sets up, we could get a bunch of rain or a lot of warm/cloudy days.

Afternoon AFD from Mt Holly-

The relatively quiet weather continues into early Saturday before the front finally approaches later Saturday bringing a chance of showers arriving from west to east late Saturday into Saturday night. Beyond this time the forecast grows increasingly uncertain as there are differences between the forecast models and from one model run to the next. But in the big picture, the baroclinic zone looks to set up along the east coast through early to mid next week as the front washes out or stalls over the area. Additional waves look to move north along it bringing chances for showers/rain most days as the pattern becomes more active and wetter.

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And 18z gfs flipped back to more progressive and a much colder look next week. Should be interesting at least. 

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And 18z gfs flipped back to more progressive and a much colder look next week. Should be interesting at least. 

This winter is going to give us stomach ulcers.  I can see it already. Just give me a white Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas and I will be fine.  

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 Just give me a white Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas and I will be fine.  

Seems reasonable :unsure:

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41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This winter is going to give us stomach ulcers.  I can see it already. Just give me a white Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas and I will be fine.  

I wouldn’t mind waking up young, tall and handsome, odds are against reversing reality. I do hope your wish comes true, although I might substitute Valentines Day for Halloween. As always .....

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6 minutes ago, rclab said:

I wouldn’t mind waking up young, tall and handsome, odds are against reversing reality. I do hope your wish comes true, although I might substitute Valentines Day for Halloween. As always .....

I think 89 might have been the last time we had a white thanksgiving and Christmas.  Not sure we have ever had a white Halloween.  But being 2020 you never know.  

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My senior year at Penn State was 2002-03.  We had a white Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, V-day, and Easter.  

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I think 89 might have been the last time we had a white thanksgiving and Christmas.  Not sure we have ever had a white Halloween.  But being 2020 you never know.  

Doubt there’s ever been a winter flip like 89 did

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40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Doubt there’s ever been a winter flip like 89 did

The stretch from Thanksgiving to just before Christmas was pretty great.  Clipper after clipper and snow cover just about the entire time.

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5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The stretch from Thanksgiving to just before Christmas was pretty great.  Clipper after clipper and snow cover just about the entire time.

And then spring starting right around New Years 

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Patchy drizzle before 8am. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.

:lol:

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This is when I miss the fog boobs we used to have under our member names.  Its foggu AF out this morning.  1/4 mile at best

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Patchy drizzle before 8am. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.

:lol:

What are your drizzle totals so far? 

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1 hour ago, H2O said:

This is when I miss the fog boobs we used to have under our member names.  Its foggu AF out this morning.  1/4 mile at best

This is the most H20 comment I could have woken up to. Now you have to change your username to FogBoobz

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

This is the most H20 comment I could have woken up to. Now you have to change your username to FogBoobz

Wish I could.  it was the main reason I joined Eastern.  The current wx symbol attached to your location reporting station.  I miss those days.  i also miss snow traffic snow cams, alpacas, wx stations in mulch, shutters blowing off, heat lightening(Hi @mappy), slant sticks, inflated obs, puking snow, weight lifting bets, HOW MUCH FOR CARBONDALE.

Back to wx.  Still foggu out.

 

No one caught my typo. :(

 

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5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Patchy drizzle before 8am. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.

:lol:

Disgusting out . Feels tropical and gross! Where did Fall go ?  

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4 hours ago, H2O said:

Wish I could.  it was the main reason I joined Eastern.  The current wx symbol attached to your location reporting station.  I miss those days.  i also miss snow traffic snow cams, alpacas, wx stations in mulch, shutters blowing off, heat lightening(Hi @mappy), slant sticks, inflated obs, puking snow, weight lifting bets, HOW MUCH FOR CARBONDALE.

Back to wx.  Still foggu out.

 

No one caught my typo. :(

 

lol @ foggu

also

tenor.gif

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still foggy AF in Parkton

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