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George BM

October Discobs 2020

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Euro and, to some extent the ggem, dump the energy out west and don’t progress it through. Gfs and gefs keep things more progressive so we get periodic cold shots.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

If the Euro/EPS is correct, our cool down will be brief, with a return to relatively toasty temps by mid next week.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

Models have been underestimating the WAR at times. 

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

Models have been underestimating the WAR at times. 

It all depends on the phase/amplitude of the longwave pattern. Euro amps the PAC ridge and digs the trough in out west, with +heights building downstream over the east. GFS is more progressive.

Euro led the way back in September with the highly amped pattern, digging the trough into the 4 corners region and giving the Denver area snow. GFS was initially less amped/more progressive with that energy.

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Gfs caves to euro on both Friday’s anafrontal event and the energy getting dumped out west in the mid range.

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7 hours ago, CAPE said:

Looks wet for eastern areas yet again for the end of the week. Some sort of anafrontal deal.

Models are all but bone dry here . I was hoping for a 2 for 2 . When my well dries up I'll be drinking heavily that night .

 

Day 10 Euro has a tropical low lurking off the southeast coast.  That'll save my well.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs caves to euro on both Friday’s anafrontal event and the energy getting dumped out west in the mid range.

giphy.gif

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Models are all but bone dry here . I was hoping for a 2 for 2 . When my well dries up I'll be drinking heavily that night .

 

Day 10 Euro has a tropical low lurking off the southeast coast.  That'll save my well.

Trends are drier here too, which is fine with me. Still looks like a half inch or so.

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Good chance for our first midnight high of the season for tomorrow!

edit...more fully, models other than the euro brought back rain for the metro stress tonight and tomorrow. Also looks like some widespread 30s Saturday morning. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Good chance for our first midnight high of the season for tomorrow!

edit...more fully, models other than the euro brought back rain for the metro stress tonight and tomorrow. Also looks like some widespread 30s Saturday morning. 

I think @CAPE will stress about his rain soaked mosquito bog based on the models.

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I think @CAPE will stress about his rain soaked mosquito bog based on the models.

Up to an inch is acceptable. No water laying around, so they aren't bad, The cold nights will do them in hopefully.

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As the GEFS trended warmer during the past 48 hours, and towards the earlier warmish Euro runs, the overnight EPS trends colder as the month nears an end, which looks very interesting. Possibly some wave breaking and influences from the tropical system. An interesting North Atlantic may be in the cards as well.

 

 

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Non-euro models are back to a moderate rain event tonight and tomorrow. Euro edged west, but still the driest model for the metro areas and suburbs.

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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Patchy frost in the forecast here for Sat night.

Lowest temp so far is 41.

Yup. Probably lots of 30s and maybe a freeze for IAD?

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Non-euro models are back to a moderate rain event tonight and tomorrow. Euro edged west, but still the driest model for the metro areas and suburbs.

What kind of QPF is Euro spitting out?

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20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What kind of QPF is Euro spitting out?

Like 0.1-0.3” for I-95, less northwest and more southeast. Stripe of 1” for southern eastern shore of MD and DE into southeast VA. 
 

Consensus is definitely putting the max east of the metro corridor, but euro is by itself with minimal rain in the metro area.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Non-euro models are back to a moderate rain event tonight and tomorrow. Euro edged west, but still the driest model for the metro areas and suburbs.

And 18z goes back east. Haven’t heard about 18z euro. Good thing this isn’t snow or we’d be going nuts.

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