LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 6 hours ago, Rjay said: 49 and rain. Meh Better than 33 and rain though ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: Rain is blossoming pretty well currently, should be wet from this area on east for the next few hours at least. This system overall is affecting everyone just about equally-the back edge of this seems to be about exactly where the first batch today ended. this does seem like one of those winter events.....the back end always does better over Suffolk county in those lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 10 hours ago, Allsnow said: Huh? Your area and LI should do well tonight. Radar looks solid for a rainy night yeah it must have built back in-we ended with about 1.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 43 for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Overnight low actually made it down to 43 here. I should do at least a few degrees colder tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 36 for the low here today, so far...we’ll see if we can beat that this evening before midnight. .49 event total up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Some pretty good training of cells last night from just west of JFK up into SW CT. Station Number: NY-QN-33 Station Name: Howard Beach 0.4 NNW Observation Date 10/17/2020 7:00 AM Submitted 10/17/2020 7:18 AM Total Precip Amount 2.48 in. Station Number: NY-NS-27 Station Name: Port Washington 0.8 N Observation Date 10/17/2020 7:14 AM Submitted 10/17/2020 7:18 AM Total Precip Amount 2.39 in. Station Number: CT-FR-25 Station Name: Norwalk 2.9 NNW Observation Date 10/17/2020 7:00 AM Submitted 10/17/2020 7:04 AM Total Precip Amount 2.27 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Morning thoughts... Following yesterday’s rain, a fair but cool weekend is in store. Temperatures will struggle just to reach 60° in many parts of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 60° Warmer temperatures should return early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks! Final totals around 1.5, Don? Totals through 9 am: Boston: 1.93”; Islip: 0.92”; JFK: 1.66”; LGA: 1.44”; NYC: 1.37”; Newark: 0.98”’; Providence: 1.92” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Only a brief cool down before temperatures warm back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only a brief cool down before temperatures warm back up again. We're going to roast this winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We're going to roast this winter again. From looking at a map for late October ? Its possible but come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We're going to roast this winter again. Another warmer than average winter would not be a surprise. The last 5 winters in NYC have been the warmest 5 year stretch on record. The 1981-2010 average in NYC was 35.1°. The last 5 years that jumped to 38.4°. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 40.5 35.2 39.5 38.4 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Bluewave, is this La Nina favored to be weak or strong? Craig Allen yesterday mentioned that we are looking at a strong LaNina. He disagreed with NOAA's outlook for this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another warmer than average winter would not be a surprise. The last 5 winters in NYC have been the warmest 5 year stretch on record. The 1981-2010 average in NYC was 35.1°. The last 5 years that jumped to 38.4°. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 40.5 35.2 39.5 38.4 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 I think we need a category above the relatively tame "warmer than average" If a season is +3 or more compared to the 30 year average it should be called a historic torch. Also I wouldn't use a 30 year average as that moves, we should use the whole period (or at least 1950 onwards) to compare it against what our climate "used to be." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: From looking at a map for late October ? Its possible but come on. Probably more snow than last winter but still way below normal. I predict an average winter temp around 38.5 with less than 20 inches of total snowfall, probably more like between 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 I dont get why all these people in Minnesota are so excited about snow....it's supposed to snow there. Dont have a coronary because you got 5 inches of snow, that's ho-hum and you should expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I dont get why all these people in Minnesota are so excited about snow....it's supposed to snow there. Dont have a coronary because you got 5 inches of snow, that's ho-hum and you should expect it. My guess, LB, is that their practicing reactions to what will be normal for them by the tricentennial. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Probably more snow than last winter but still way below normal. I predict an average winter temp around 38.5 with less than 20 inches of total snowfall, probably more like between 10-15. Can you share the method behind prediction? I ask because I am always curious how people get to a specific range several months out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 57 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Bluewave, is this La Nina favored to be weak or strong? Craig Allen yesterday mentioned that we are looking at a strong LaNina. He disagreed with NOAA's outlook for this upcoming winter. With what aspect did he disagree? Strength of the La Niña? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Can you share the method behind prediction? I ask because I am always curious how people get to a specific range several months out from reading a list of possible analogs in the main forum's enso state thread, 2007-08 was a big analog being used. On the positive side, they also mentioned an increasing possibility of an el nino after this winter, and this might be the last of the la nina winters for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1973-74 had the strongest la nina for any winter...with the help of some periodic blocking it was a decent winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 minute ago, uncle W said: 1973-74 had the strongest la nina for any winter...with the help of some periodic blocking it was a decent winter... better than 1972-73 at any rate lol- la ninas after el ninos seem to be pretty good....whats the story on el ninos that follow la ninas, are they also good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Totals through 9 am: Boston: 1.93”; Islip: 0.92”; JFK: 1.66”; LGA: 1.44”; NYC: 1.37”; Newark: 0.98”’; Providence: 1.92” 1.60 inches of rain here. Low temperature last night 42° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: From looking at a map for late October ? Its possible but come on. SST temps are way above normal. That will keep us warm through December most likely. Then we'll have to see what the AO, NAO MJO etc want to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: better than 1972-73 at any rate lol- la ninas after el ninos seem to be pretty good....whats the story on el ninos that follow la ninas, are they also good? 2009-10 was great...2006-07 wasn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, uncle W said: 2009-10 was great...2006-07 wasn't... 2 out of 3 aint bad..... 1995-96 and 2010-11 vs 2007-08 wait I thought you meant la ninas after el ninos lol those seem to be somewhat better than el ninos after la ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: SST temps are way above normal. That will keep us warm through December most likely. Then we'll have to see what the AO, NAO MJO etc want to do. SST temp above normal is good for bombing storms, if we get that then those storms can drag down colder air as they bomb out. I've seen plenty of years with cold SST that turned into dud winters (a la 89-90) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said: Bluewave, is this La Nina favored to be weak or strong? Craig Allen yesterday mentioned that we are looking at a strong LaNina. He disagreed with NOAA's outlook for this upcoming winter. La Ninas since 2000 usually end up warmer than average regardless of whether they are weak, moderate, or strong. NYC 00-01...weak.........-1.6 05-06...weak.........+2.2 07-08...strong.......+1.3 08-09..weak...........-0.9 10-11..strong.........-2.3 11-12..moderate...+5.4 16-17..weak...........+4.2 17-18..moderate...+1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: La Ninas since 2000 usually end up warmer and snowier than average regardless of whether they are weak, moderate, or strong. NYC 00-01...weak.........-1.6 05-06...weak.........+2.2 07-08...strong.......+1.3 08-09..weak...........-0.9 10-11..strong.........-2.3 11-12..moderate...+5.4 16-17..weak...........+4.2 17-18..moderate...+1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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