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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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19 hours ago, canderson said:

F winter, you’ve been out of work for 7-8 months so I hope you get cleared regardless of what snow we (won’t) get. 

Gut tells me it’ll be a pretty boring winter. 

Thanks. It's been a rough bunch of months I tell ya. I can't wait to be able to earn a paycheck and feel like a valuable member of society again. 

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12 hours ago, Voyager said:

Thanks. It's been a rough bunch of months I tell ya. I can't wait to be able to earn a paycheck and feel like a valuable member of society again. 

I really hope things work out for you soon Steve. I've been extremely fortunate, appreciate it, and really feel for those that haven't been as fortunate as I've been. 

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The upcoming pattern to start December looks to be full of potential for Winter storm chances.

The positive PNA could pay off with this southern storm track that is advertised on the GEFS & EPS from December 4th to the 9th. 

This pattern has been showing on the ensembles consistently over the last few days. If this look holds, there should be some fun Op model runs showing up soon.

There is a chance that we could be actively tracking out first legit winter storm threat by the end of the first week of December.

 

1E1B573E-8532-426C-BA9A-0F67B39A8F8B.png

EBF94F08-EE35-4000-A1D3-E9C2C20F1A9F.png

6F888313-C02D-4870-88BC-5ABCAC37524E.png

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Fortunately its the GFS and if one loops back through the last few runs, loopy is a fitting descriptor.  

At the minimum, we may be close to something for late weekend and could have a period to play in first couple weeks of Dec.  I sure hope so, as I'll be at the cabin in search of a nice 10pt that is hanging around my place.  Just gotta find him after the bear hunters scoured the woods and pushed em all around.  

Wont be on much after today, so in advance I wish you all a happy Turkey day.  Make the best of it in these F'd up times, as we still have many things to be thankful for...  

Nut

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If the GFS/GGEM and Euro are to be believed. I think some folks in this subforum are going to see their first legit accumulating snow in the next 10 to 17 days. I would put money on it being N&W of I-81 for now.

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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If the GFS/GGEM and Euro are to be believed. I think some folks in this subforum are going to see their first legit accumulating snow in the next 10 to 17 days. I would put money on it being N&W of I-81 for now.

I rather strongly agree with you. I think those south and east of the ridges have a chance as we get into the 2nd week of December. 

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26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The 3 worst scenarios for you and me during any given winter:

1.) A Miller B that intensifies off the NJ coast. 

2.) An Alberta Clipper that runs west to east across the turnpike 

3.) Expecting wraparound snow, from well...anything 

Exactly a pipe dream but I'm trying to track something. :D

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Fortunately its the GFS and if one loops back through the last few runs, loopy is a fitting descriptor.  

At the minimum, we may be close to something for late weekend and could have a period to play in first couple weeks of Dec.  I sure hope so, as I'll be at the cabin in search of a nice 10pt that is hanging around my place.  Just gotta find him after the bear hunters scoured the woods and pushed em all around.  

Wont be on much after today, so in advance I wish you all a happy Turkey day.  Make the best of it in these F'd up times, as we still have many things to be thankful for...  

Nut

Happy Thanksgiving Broski, Good luck for a safe, successful hunt. Cheers 

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Happy thanksgiving, all. Please during the holiday stay safe - I am sure some of you aren’t a proponent of wearing masks and I am not looking for a fight whatsoever but do remember those in hospitals. My Health department director friend says they expect icu beds in the state to basically be unavailable by Dec 15. 
 

But above all - enjoy beer, food and relaxation. And decent weather it looks l8e after some rain Wednesday and early Thursday!

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On 11/21/2020 at 2:28 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

What are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern as we roll into December?

 

 

On 11/22/2020 at 12:54 PM, 2001kx said:

Joe Murgo's Wintercast (WTAJ) was doom and gloom if you like snow.

Trying to catch up here, I have been wanting to make a fuller post on the state of things and some of my thoughts on what this winter might do. @Blizzard of 93, I think this upcoming pattern presents a window of opportunity to get on the board with a more widespread event at some point during the front half of the month. Models seem to be zeroing a bit timing wise on the next major system around Mon/Tues. Really this is the first big storm of the fall/winter on the progs for the eastern half of the US that wasn't tropical or tropical influenced. Likely heading to the lakes as I don't feel we're established quite yet with the pattern/cold air regime that we need. Additionally, models (Euro/GFS) seem to be supporting early phasing of shortwaves as well, so the business end of this storm system up front is likely a pretty good rain event (which also isn't a bad thing in terms of drought relief). Now the 12z Canadian was interesting as it seemed to to be a bit east with the positioning of features, allowing a phase and deep low up into eastern PA and then NY State. That would put the western half of PA in the game.  Lots of high heights up top keep the system from just shooting out and all guidance closes off the system, which depending on positioning of the features (surface low/500 low/etc) could dictate where some backlash snows and/or lake effect and upslope occurs. Somewhat more progressive could get us in a better position but I lean more towards this system being the one that could set the pattern up for the next one to have a much better shot. 12z Euro hints at that somewhat with a follow up wave late next week.  Overall, that would be something I would keep an eye on as this week rolls along.. could be a bigger surface wave as depicted with that or perhaps a weaker wave that presents a lighter, but widespread event. We should hold in at least seasonable cold beyond Tues/Wed. It doesn't look like an in and out type deal like our cold shots have been to this point. Teleconnections show a nice +PNA to develop with NAO/AO at least neutralizing after a bit of a surge positive the next few days. Perhaps of almost as big of importance as the +PNA is the MJO progged to stay in the circle.. with esp the ECMWF forecast variations keeping it buried there for awhile.

So trying to blend this post into the bigger picture part of the equation..

@2001kx, I was looking into his 2020 wintercast online since I didn't see it the day it was on TV. Generally I agree with his numbers and he's got the standard boilerplate Nina type influences (lots of storms cut west/mixing systems, changeable temps, etc). The last winter post I made awhile back I mentioned that I felt snow totals would be perhaps 75%-ish for pretty much all of us with the Laurels region perhaps seeing the best shot at an average season. So yea, agreed there.. but I def don't agree or understand how he's coming to that conclusion from an analog standpoint. Says his top analog is 2015-2016. What? That winter was a record breaking NINO when we're coming into this winter at a solid NINA. I don't know if he's referencing some other factor when it comes to using that as a top analog but ENSO is one of the biggest influences (especially when they're moderate/strong).. so I def wouldn't be using that. 

Even though the Nina is somewhat less than the current one, 2005-2006 should probably get a look as an analog. The hyperactive tropical season that also lasted late is the obvious similarity with the lead in to winter. That winter was a quick starter at the end of Nov/December that then pretty much disappeared until the Feb 2006 coastal.  I think what happens in December is going to be pretty important whether or not we can achieve what I think will be a 75% type snowfall winter. I'm banking on a more wintry December than we've had the last couple years (perhaps 2017ish), and I've seen enough to have fairly good confidence with that. With the above remarks about the MJO forecast into the circle in mind check out what happened in 2005:

200510.phase.90days.thumb.gif.5fa2741a37b4fc9373802b866c547775.gif

And then thereafter Jan-Mar 2006:

200601.phase.90days.thumb.gif.53bf251ef89434ab1f86ad96e8c0ad80.gif

 

So one can see the 4-5-6 run that took a large chunk of January and then the Feb 11th nor'easter was smack in the middle of an 8-1-2 run. Overall, this particular winter wasn't really a great one outside of the early cold and snow in December and then the Feb storm. This is something that some forecasters (even JB) are considering as a good possibility of happening deeper into the winter... with the moderate/strong Nina driving a more dominant 4-5-6 regime equating to lots of above average in the east. It's also something I'm mindful of...but it doesn't necessarily have to happen though, especially if the Nina eventually starts to weaken.  At any rate, that 2005-2006 analog isn't perfect by any means. Aside from that one being a weaker La Nina event than currently, SST anomalies in the rest of the Pac and Atlantic basins really don't match up well to what we have now. Both basins have larges swaths of above normal SST's now compared to being much cooler in 2005. 2017-2018 could get a look as an analog as well as the most recent La Nina and additionally one that the current Nina is tracking pretty close to numbers wise. That featured an Atlantic basin similar to now, although the N Pacific had more below normal SST's. That winter had its very warm stretches, esp in February.. but we fared a lot better with snow and also had the big hitter in late March and snow into April. It also had some shots of snow and cold in December (end of December was very cold). But back to the SST anomalies..

2005:

anomnight_11_26_2005.thumb.gif.d0f6efaf5b59936e443a26ea5aa18617.gif

2017:

anomnight_11_23_2017.thumb.gif.4ac3267fa59ff7e23fc8b6671efdc662.gif

Now:

ssta.daily.current.thumb.png.7447e81cf62440670e7eb316cac75207.png

 

So you can see the 2017 map looks a good bit closer to what we have now, with the difference still being the warmer north Pacific (looking more like this time last year there). That much warmer Pac probably will have implications in the positioning of the jet stream in the EPO/WPO realm. So lots of things to consider, this Nina is unique with how warm the northern Pacific is when comparing to any of the other recent Nina's of the past 20 or so years as well (98-99, 99-00, 07-08, 10-11, 11-12). What that might mean for our sensible weather later this winter I'm not quite sure. And even though I'm expecting a somewhat below normal winter this year snow-wise, I still expect it to be much better than last year just simply because I'm betting on the side of statistics that we don't see such an anomalous and long lasting +AO regime and extremely strong polar vortex again this winter. I feel that was what made a bad winter last year historically bad since the overall setup last winter pretty much rendered northern branch events for us nonexistent since the ++AO regime had that northern jet too high while the other systems mostly cut west with the eastern ridge. Even in a bad winter we normally still at least get a decent event or two over the course of the seasonand that one didn't even do that. I do also think we're going to need more help from the NAO realm than usual to help keep the storm track under us more if we're presented with a traditional Nina pattern. 

Well I really went into the rabbit hole with this, I don't usually dive too deep into these long range things but I'm trying to get better at analyzing this stuff. I am looking at this period coming up to start the first half of December with optimism though as like I mentioned, we look to have a period of opportunity. What happens beyond, we shall see. For the record I'm not writing anything off, good or bad. 

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, canderson said:

Happy thanksgiving, all. Please during the holiday stay safe - I am sure some of you aren’t a proponent of wearing masks and I am not looking for a fight whatsoever but do remember those in hospitals. My Health department director friend says they expect icu beds in the state to basically be unavailable by Dec 15. 
 

But above all - enjoy beer, food and relaxation. And decent weather it looks l8e after some rain Wednesday and early Thursday!

Just dropping in...but wanted to respond that this is one of the most respectful Covid-caution pleas I have read on the internet. :) If only more could follow. 

 

I hope you all have a great Thanksgiving! Sadly, I won't be coming back to see any of my family in Central PA for this holiday because of Covid. Christmas is looking iffy too. :( 

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26 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Just dropping in...but wanted to respond that this is one of the most respectful Covid-caution pleas I have read on the internet. :) If only more could follow. 

 

I hope you all have a great Thanksgiving! Sadly, I won't be coming back to see any of my family in Central PA for this holiday because of Covid. Christmas is looking iffy too. :( 

In the same boat - no trips to Texas for the holidays for the first time since moving here in 2006. This too shall pass, hope is on the horizon. 

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20 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The 3 worst scenarios for you and me during any given winter:

1.) A Miller B that intensifies off the NJ coast. 

2.) An Alberta Clipper that runs west to east across the turnpike 

3.) Expecting wraparound snow, from well...anything 

words well stated

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12 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

 

Trying to catch up here, I have been wanting to make a fuller post on the state of things and some of my thoughts on what this winter might do. @Blizzard of 93, I think this upcoming pattern presents a window of opportunity to get on the board with a more widespread event at some point during the front half of the month. Models seem to be zeroing a bit timing wise on the next major system around Mon/Tues. Really this is the first big storm of the fall/winter on the progs for the eastern half of the US that wasn't tropical or tropical influenced. Likely heading to the lakes as I don't feel we're established quite yet with the pattern/cold air regime that we need. Additionally, models (Euro/GFS) seem to be supporting early phasing of shortwaves as well, so the business end of this storm system up front is likely a pretty good rain event (which also isn't a bad thing in terms of drought relief). Now the 12z Canadian was interesting as it seemed to to be a bit east with the positioning of features, allowing a phase and deep low up into eastern PA and then NY State. That would put the western half of PA in the game.  Lots of high heights up top keep the system from just shooting out and all guidance closes off the system, which depending on positioning of the features (surface low/500 low/etc) could dictate where some backlash snows and/or lake effect and upslope occurs. Somewhat more progressive could get us in a better position but I lean more towards this system being the one that could set the pattern up for the next one to have a much better shot. 12z Euro hints at that somewhat with a follow up wave late next week.  Overall, that would be something I would keep an eye on as this week rolls along.. could be a bigger surface wave as depicted with that or perhaps a weaker wave that presents a lighter, but widespread event. We should hold in at least seasonable cold beyond Tues/Wed. It doesn't look like an in and out type deal like our cold shots have been to this point. Teleconnections show a nice +PNA to develop with NAO/AO at least neutralizing after a bit of a surge positive the next few days. Perhaps of almost as big of importance as the +PNA is the MJO progged to stay in the circle.. with esp the ECMWF forecast variations keeping it buried there for awhile.

So trying to blend this post into the bigger picture part of the equation..

@2001kx, I was looking into his 2020 wintercast online since I didn't see it the day it was on TV. Generally I agree with his numbers and he's got the standard boilerplate Nina type influences (lots of storms cut west/mixing systems, changeable temps, etc). The last winter post I made awhile back I mentioned that I felt snow totals would be perhaps 75%-ish for pretty much all of us with the Laurels region perhaps seeing the best shot at an average season. So yea, agreed there.. but I def don't agree or understand how he's coming to that conclusion from an analog standpoint. Says his top analog is 2015-2016. What? That winter was a record breaking NINO when we're coming into this winter at a solid NINA. I don't know if he's referencing some other factor when it comes to using that as a top analog but ENSO is one of the biggest influences (especially when they're moderate/strong).. so I def wouldn't be using that. 

Even though the Nina is somewhat less than the current one, 2005-2006 should probably get a look as an analog. The hyperactive tropical season that also lasted late is the obvious similarity with the lead in to winter. That winter was a quick starter at the end of Nov/December that then pretty much disappeared until the Feb 2006 coastal.  I think what happens in December is going to be pretty important whether or not we can achieve what I think will be a 75% type snowfall winter. I'm banking on a more wintry December than we've had the last couple years (perhaps 2017ish), and I've seen enough to have fairly good confidence with that. With the above remarks about the MJO forecast into the circle in mind check out what happened in 2005:

200510.phase.90days.thumb.gif.5fa2741a37b4fc9373802b866c547775.gif

And then thereafter Jan-Mar 2006:

200601.phase.90days.thumb.gif.53bf251ef89434ab1f86ad96e8c0ad80.gif

 

So one can see the 4-5-6 run that took a large chunk of January and then the Feb 11th nor'easter was smack in the middle of an 8-1-2 run. Overall, this particular winter wasn't really a great one outside of the early cold and snow in December and then the Feb storm. This is something that some forecasters (even JB) are considering as a good possibility of happening deeper into the winter... with the moderate/strong Nina driving a more dominant 4-5-6 regime equating to lots of above average in the east. It's also something I'm mindful of...but it doesn't necessarily have to happen though, especially if the Nina eventually starts to weaken.  At any rate, that 2005-2006 analog isn't perfect by any means. Aside from that one being a weaker La Nina event than currently, SST anomalies in the rest of the Pac and Atlantic basins really don't match up well to what we have now. Both basins have larges swaths of above normal SST's now compared to being much cooler in 2005. 2017-2018 could get a look as an analog as well as the most recent La Nina and additionally one that the current Nina is tracking pretty close to numbers wise. That featured an Atlantic basin similar to now, although the N Pacific had more below normal SST's. That winter had its very warm stretches, esp in February.. but we fared a lot better with snow and also had the big hitter in late March and snow into April. It also had some shots of snow and cold in December (end of December was very cold). But back to the SST anomalies..

2005:

anomnight_11_26_2005.thumb.gif.d0f6efaf5b59936e443a26ea5aa18617.gif

2017:

anomnight_11_23_2017.thumb.gif.4ac3267fa59ff7e23fc8b6671efdc662.gif

Now:

ssta.daily.current.thumb.png.7447e81cf62440670e7eb316cac75207.png

 

So you can see the 2017 map looks a good bit closer to what we have now, with the difference still being the warmer north Pacific (looking more like this time last year there). That much warmer Pac probably will have implications in the positioning of the jet stream in the EPO/WPO realm. So lots of things to consider, this Nina is unique with how warm the northern Pacific is when comparing to any of the other recent Nina's of the past 20 or so years as well (98-99, 99-00, 07-08, 10-11, 11-12). What that might mean for our sensible weather later this winter I'm not quite sure. And even though I'm expecting a somewhat below normal winter this year snow-wise, I still expect it to be much better than last year just simply because I'm betting on the side of statistics that we don't see such an anomalous and long lasting +AO regime and extremely strong polar vortex again this winter. I feel that was what made a bad winter last year historically bad since the overall setup last winter pretty much rendered northern branch events for us nonexistent since the ++AO regime had that northern jet too high while the other systems mostly cut west with the eastern ridge. Even in a bad winter we normally still at least get a decent event or two over the course of the seasonand that one didn't even do that. I do also think we're going to need more help from the NAO realm than usual to help keep the storm track under us more if we're presented with a traditional Nina pattern. 

Well I really went into the rabbit hole with this, I don't usually dive too deep into these long range things but I'm trying to get better at analyzing this stuff. I am looking at this period coming up to start the first half of December with optimism though as like I mentioned, we look to have a period of opportunity. What happens beyond, we shall see. For the record I'm not writing anything off, good or bad. 

 

 

 

Thanks so much for the update, Mag. It does look wet next week for sure in our parts per the 12z GFS this morning. This pattern seems active with colder air in place so as you said maybe something end of next week or before we get into mid-December. 

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12z runs seem to be one step closer to trackin something here in the state.  Not sure I'm ready to put any chips on the retrograde/pinwheel options that the GFS and Canook models are spitting out.....

 

but it IS 2020.

 

 

That said, I'm out.  Happy Turk Day.  Put a bag over your heads and hug your parents.  They need it (and so do you).  Or just send more virtual hugs....however ya'll roll, just make the best of it.

Nut

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21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

12z runs seem to be one step closer to trackin something here in the state.  Not sure I'm ready to put any chips on the retrograde/pinwheel options that the GFS and Canook models are spitting out.....

 

but it IS 2020.

 

 

That said, I'm out.  Happy Turk Day.  Put a bag over your heads and hug your parents.  They need it (and so do you).  Or just send more virtual hugs....however ya'll roll, just make the best of it.

Nut

Like I mentioned yesterday, I think the potential in this is going to be behind this Mon-Tuesday system toward the Dec 5th timeframe. GFS wasn't too interested today at 12z in that possible followup system as it actually appears to completely bury the shortwave that would cause this system in the SW. After ending at D10 with a big hitter last night at 0z, the 12z Euro has it but it's stuffed well south of PA. Canadian has it and is pretty close to being something. Way too soon and too much uncertainty to pin anything down on that, there's a lot of amplification and moving parts in this upcoming pattern. We have to see how the lead system evolves. This post Thanksgiving system looks like a doozy as we phase energy and with ample high heights over Canada it will likely cut off for a time next week. The phase is just going to happen a bit too early for us it appears, and even the 12z GFS which actually takes the low mostly under us today doesn't get the cold air tapped in. I don't think we're well positioned with the lead system and I think we're going to want the deeper and longer cutoff solutions to set the table pattern-wise for late next week. You go more progressive and maybe get closer to snow with the lead in C-PA but probably not close enough for most of us and then you probably miss the chance for a better shot late in the week if the trough levels off.  The longer cutoff/carved out trough allows the opportunity to run another system while the storm track is suppressed and has ample blocking over top of us in Canada. I like our chances with that potential if we can materialize the follow-up storm late next week. The pattern would appear to favor more amplified and less progressive solutions. 

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Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

I am thankful that I will get to track Winter Storms with all of you soon!

Here is the Euro from last night for the sacred date of December the 5th. The storm is right where we want it 9 days out...

 

62A17979-2368-46C5-8C03-0D4B87747FA7.png

B0130DA6-22A9-4CC9-B5C0-C2D9364B7A90.png

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32 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

I guess the 12/2 system is gone.... :thumbsdown:

The storm early next week is snow for parts of Ohio and Indiana.

Our time to track snow for central PA should arrive after that early week storm passes.

We should at least have some chances to track.

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14 hours ago, Voyager said:

How do you clear snow off of a Colorado steam tourist railroad in the Rocky Mountains? With steam of course...

 

 

Would love that job..

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On 11/24/2020 at 11:39 PM, MAG5035 said:

 

Trying to catch up here, I have been wanting to make a fuller post on the state of things and some of my thoughts on what this winter might do. @Blizzard of 93, I think this upcoming pattern presents a window of opportunity to get on the board with a more widespread event at some point during the front half of the month. Models seem to be zeroing a bit timing wise on the next major system around Mon/Tues. Really this is the first big storm of the fall/winter on the progs for the eastern half of the US that wasn't tropical or tropical influenced. Likely heading to the lakes as I don't feel we're established quite yet with the pattern/cold air regime that we need. Additionally, models (Euro/GFS) seem to be supporting early phasing of shortwaves as well, so the business end of this storm system up front is likely a pretty good rain event (which also isn't a bad thing in terms of drought relief). Now the 12z Canadian was interesting as it seemed to to be a bit east with the positioning of features, allowing a phase and deep low up into eastern PA and then NY State. That would put the western half of PA in the game.  Lots of high heights up top keep the system from just shooting out and all guidance closes off the system, which depending on positioning of the features (surface low/500 low/etc) could dictate where some backlash snows and/or lake effect and upslope occurs. Somewhat more progressive could get us in a better position but I lean more towards this system being the one that could set the pattern up for the next one to have a much better shot. 12z Euro hints at that somewhat with a follow up wave late next week.  Overall, that would be something I would keep an eye on as this week rolls along.. could be a bigger surface wave as depicted with that or perhaps a weaker wave that presents a lighter, but widespread event. We should hold in at least seasonable cold beyond Tues/Wed. It doesn't look like an in and out type deal like our cold shots have been to this point. Teleconnections show a nice +PNA to develop with NAO/AO at least neutralizing after a bit of a surge positive the next few days. Perhaps of almost as big of importance as the +PNA is the MJO progged to stay in the circle.. with esp the ECMWF forecast variations keeping it buried there for awhile.

So trying to blend this post into the bigger picture part of the equation..

@2001kx, I was looking into his 2020 wintercast online since I didn't see it the day it was on TV. Generally I agree with his numbers and he's got the standard boilerplate Nina type influences (lots of storms cut west/mixing systems, changeable temps, etc). The last winter post I made awhile back I mentioned that I felt snow totals would be perhaps 75%-ish for pretty much all of us with the Laurels region perhaps seeing the best shot at an average season. So yea, agreed there.. but I def don't agree or understand how he's coming to that conclusion from an analog standpoint. Says his top analog is 2015-2016. What? That winter was a record breaking NINO when we're coming into this winter at a solid NINA. I don't know if he's referencing some other factor when it comes to using that as a top analog but ENSO is one of the biggest influences (especially when they're moderate/strong).. so I def wouldn't be using that. 

Even though the Nina is somewhat less than the current one, 2005-2006 should probably get a look as an analog. The hyperactive tropical season that also lasted late is the obvious similarity with the lead in to winter. That winter was a quick starter at the end of Nov/December that then pretty much disappeared until the Feb 2006 coastal.  I think what happens in December is going to be pretty important whether or not we can achieve what I think will be a 75% type snowfall winter. I'm banking on a more wintry December than we've had the last couple years (perhaps 2017ish), and I've seen enough to have fairly good confidence with that. With the above remarks about the MJO forecast into the circle in mind check out what happened in 2005:

200510.phase.90days.thumb.gif.5fa2741a37b4fc9373802b866c547775.gif

And then thereafter Jan-Mar 2006:

200601.phase.90days.thumb.gif.53bf251ef89434ab1f86ad96e8c0ad80.gif

 

So one can see the 4-5-6 run that took a large chunk of January and then the Feb 11th nor'easter was smack in the middle of an 8-1-2 run. Overall, this particular winter wasn't really a great one outside of the early cold and snow in December and then the Feb storm. This is something that some forecasters (even JB) are considering as a good possibility of happening deeper into the winter... with the moderate/strong Nina driving a more dominant 4-5-6 regime equating to lots of above average in the east. It's also something I'm mindful of...but it doesn't necessarily have to happen though, especially if the Nina eventually starts to weaken.  At any rate, that 2005-2006 analog isn't perfect by any means. Aside from that one being a weaker La Nina event than currently, SST anomalies in the rest of the Pac and Atlantic basins really don't match up well to what we have now. Both basins have larges swaths of above normal SST's now compared to being much cooler in 2005. 2017-2018 could get a look as an analog as well as the most recent La Nina and additionally one that the current Nina is tracking pretty close to numbers wise. That featured an Atlantic basin similar to now, although the N Pacific had more below normal SST's. That winter had its very warm stretches, esp in February.. but we fared a lot better with snow and also had the big hitter in late March and snow into April. It also had some shots of snow and cold in December (end of December was very cold). But back to the SST anomalies..

2005:

anomnight_11_26_2005.thumb.gif.d0f6efaf5b59936e443a26ea5aa18617.gif

2017:

anomnight_11_23_2017.thumb.gif.4ac3267fa59ff7e23fc8b6671efdc662.gif

Now:

ssta.daily.current.thumb.png.7447e81cf62440670e7eb316cac75207.png

 

So you can see the 2017 map looks a good bit closer to what we have now, with the difference still being the warmer north Pacific (looking more like this time last year there). That much warmer Pac probably will have implications in the positioning of the jet stream in the EPO/WPO realm. So lots of things to consider, this Nina is unique with how warm the northern Pacific is when comparing to any of the other recent Nina's of the past 20 or so years as well (98-99, 99-00, 07-08, 10-11, 11-12). What that might mean for our sensible weather later this winter I'm not quite sure. And even though I'm expecting a somewhat below normal winter this year snow-wise, I still expect it to be much better than last year just simply because I'm betting on the side of statistics that we don't see such an anomalous and long lasting +AO regime and extremely strong polar vortex again this winter. I feel that was what made a bad winter last year historically bad since the overall setup last winter pretty much rendered northern branch events for us nonexistent since the ++AO regime had that northern jet too high while the other systems mostly cut west with the eastern ridge. Even in a bad winter we normally still at least get a decent event or two over the course of the seasonand that one didn't even do that. I do also think we're going to need more help from the NAO realm than usual to help keep the storm track under us more if we're presented with a traditional Nina pattern. 

Well I really went into the rabbit hole with this, I don't usually dive too deep into these long range things but I'm trying to get better at analyzing this stuff. I am looking at this period coming up to start the first half of December with optimism though as like I mentioned, we look to have a period of opportunity. What happens beyond, we shall see. For the record I'm not writing anything off, good or bad. 

 

 

 

Nice Write up, thanks MAG.

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2 hours ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

I guess the 12/2 system is gone.... :thumbsdown:

Unfortunately, yes. It sure looked for a while like your area in western PA might finally get something decent, but it seems likely that this next storm cuts and rains on most if not all of PA. 

Hang in there - you good people out there are overdue. Your time is coming!

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The 18z GEFS brought the 3 inch snow line down to Harrisburg. About half of the individual ensemble members look at least decent for CTP. 

The upcoming pattern over the next 2 weeks should give us chances to get on the board.

 

949DF58D-28ED-4D2C-93B8-192DE72162EA.png

586A7EE1-B2A0-4EBE-A061-C4B6D43AF5C3.png

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