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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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11 hours ago, canderson said:

Is November also going down as the hottest ever in Harrisburg? Last I saw we were 10+ degrees above normal. It’s been warm. Lots of days +15 or more. 

The average high temperature for yesterday is still 48 at Harrisburg.

The high yesterday of 57 was 9 degrees above normal.

The record high for the date yesterday was 71 set way back in 1896 !

Don’t worry, the pattern change starts later this week. We should see at least near average temperatures this week after the rain storm passes on Tuesday.

Below normal temps should arrive the following week. Yes, that should mean winter weather opportunities as we begin the second week of December!

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The average high temperature for yesterday is still 48 at Harrisburg.

The high yesterday of 57 was 9 degrees above normal.

The record high for the date yesterday was 71 set way back in 1896 !

Don’t worry, the pattern change starts later this week. We should see at least near average temperatures this week after the rain storm passes on Tuesday.

Below normal temps should arrive the following week. Yes, that should mean winter weather opportunities as we begin the second week of December!

That's what I've been thinking. I know there was talk about later this upcoming week, I thought for our area it was too rushed. Patience...

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just finished my annual "snow mow" - anyone else do this? I cut my yard extra short heading into winter so that my yard is the first in the neighborhood to be completely covered by snow. (no grass showing) It does wonders for my soul. :) 

Sorry, I couldn't resist laughing at your logic, but hey, I get it. When I did love snow, it wasn't a real snow unless the grass was completely covered.

I still mow it low once we get later into the fall, but that's to keep the top growth down to minimize winter damage to the grass.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Sorry, I couldn't resist laughing at your logic, but hey, I get it. When I did love snow, it wasn't a real snow unless the grass was completely covered.

I still mow it low once we get later into the fall, but that's to keep the top growth down to minimize winter damage to the grass.

Oh, you can laugh away! I've had the same neighbor since I bought my house 20 some years ago, and he knows the drill. He asked me a couple of days ago when the annual snow mow was taking place...

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20 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's what I've been thinking. I know there was talk about later this upcoming week, I thought for our area it was too rushed. Patience...

Yes, patience is the key. The upcoming pattern should present chances starting next week. The telleconnections look to be lining up favorably for a good pattern in the east.

Maybe this storm in 2 weeks will be the first widespread winter storm for our region?

Here is the 0z GFS for December 13th.

1B358245-FC60-4D2E-BD08-AB7311859359.png

B1397F0A-DB0E-43BE-BDE1-432FA5513CEC.png

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15 hours ago, paweather said:

It could be starting in the SE:

image.png.c07f16f7f6bdf111b763d3b84351038d.png

We're expecting a smidgen down this way. I'm a few hundred feet higher in elevation than Nashville, and believe it or not, it makes all the difference. I could get an inch at my home while Nashville gets snow showers and no accumulation.

Probably going to squeak out less than an inch, but it's November, and it's Tennessee, so I'll take it. We get six inches of snow on average per year.

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19 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just finished my annual "snow mow" - anyone else do this? I cut my yard extra short heading into winter so that my yard is the first in the neighborhood to be completely covered by snow. (no grass showing) It does wonders for my soul. :) 

Dude, that's the truth. An inch of snow looks more satisfying when you don't have the wild onions and fescue sticking out of the ground.

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23 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just finished my annual "snow mow" - anyone else do this? I cut my yard extra short heading into winter so that my yard is the first in the neighborhood to be completely covered by snow. (no grass showing) It does wonders for my soul. :) 

Bahaha! I can't stand the neighbors who don't do a final mow and their grass sticks up 4 inches from the earth's surface! You need one solid HEAVY snow and ice to smash that CRAP down to the earth. :P 

4 hours ago, anotherman said:

 

Horst is one of my favorites...followed him very closely while growing up in Lancaster. NO hype, loves the community, and an excellent meteorologist/professor.

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24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Bahaha! I can't stand the neighbors who don't do a final mow and their grass sticks up 4 inches from the earth's surface! You need one solid HEAVY snow and ice to smash that CRAP down to the earth. :P 

Horst is one of my favorites...followed him very closely while growing up in Lancaster. NO hype, loves the community, and an excellent meteorologist/professor.

I feel like a true snow weenie looks for competitive advantages when it comes to creating the perfect winter landscape. Being the first to have the yard disappear is step #1.

The other thing that I did, and something that Daxx does, was to prohibit the kids from playing in the backyard when they were younger. A good bit of my yard is shaded, and to help preserve the perfect snowpack, I didn't want my snow trampled, rolled, scooped, etc. An untouched yard was essential! 

Shoveling snow into 2 huge piles is another tradition - I consistently have the last piles of snow to melt in the 'hood. Admittedly, it's getting harder for me to stack it up at the age of 55. 

And of course, I'm always a fan of getting a nice layer of sleet on top of my snowpack. It's the best way to achieve pack preservation. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I feel like a true snow weenie looks for competitive advantages when it comes to creating the perfect winter landscape. Being the first to have the yard disappear is step #1.

The other thing that I did, and something that Daxx does, was to prohibit the kids from playing in the backyard when they were younger. A good bit of my yard is shaded, and to help preserve the perfect snowpack, I didn't want my snow trampled, rolled, scooped, etc. An untouched yard was essential! 

Shoveling snow into 2 huge piles is another tradition - I consistently have the last piles of snow to melt in the 'hood. Admittedly, it's getting harder for me to stack it up at the age of 55. 

And of course, I'm always a fan of getting a nice layer of sleet on top of my snowpack. It's the best way to achieve pack preservation. 

I may not like winter, but I still hate trampled snow. I want it to be pristine after it falls. So much so that I actually hate putting the dog out after a snowfall.

OMG...I think I just admitted that I'm a closet snow weenie...

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I feel like a true snow weenie looks for competitive advantages when it comes to creating the perfect winter landscape. Being the first to have the yard disappear is step #1.

The other thing that I did, and something that Daxx does, was to prohibit the kids from playing in the backyard when they were younger. A good bit of my yard is shaded, and to help preserve the perfect snowpack, I didn't want my snow trampled, rolled, scooped, etc. An untouched yard was essential! 

Shoveling snow into 2 huge piles is another tradition - I consistently have the last piles of snow to melt in the 'hood. Admittedly, it's getting harder for me to stack it up at the age of 55. 

And of course, I'm always a fan of getting a nice layer of sleet on top of my snowpack. It's the best way to achieve pack preservation. 

Yes! Winter of 93-94 was spectacular for that.

I had a roommate when I lived at Wood's Edge off of Centerville Rd....he hated snow. I remember one time I shoveled the driveway and made nice big piles. The next day, it was very sunny, and he took the snow from the piles and spread it all over the driveway to melt. I was ssooooo not amused!

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yes! Winter of 93-94 was spectacular for that.

I had a roommate when I lived at Wood's Edge off of Centerville Rd....he hated snow. I remember one time I shoveled the driveway and made nice big piles. The next day, it was very sunny, and he took the snow from the piles and spread it all over the driveway to melt. I was ssooooo not amused!

If I remember correctly I had 53 consecutive days with snow cover. Nothing even close to that since. That winter was special. 

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On 11/28/2020 at 2:05 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Just finished my annual "snow mow" - anyone else do this? I cut my yard extra short heading into winter so that my yard is the first in the neighborhood to be completely covered by snow. (no grass showing) It does wonders for my soul. :) 

You inspired me today to do my first “snow mow”!

I don’t like when blades of grass show through the snow, so this should help!

Now, it’s just a matter of getting some snow on the ground.

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25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

You inspired me today to do my first “snow mow”!

I don’t like when blades of grass show through the snow, so this should help!

Now, it’s just a matter of getting some snow on the ground.

:)

You my friend, of everyone in here, should be able to stake the claim of having the first yard to be obscured by snow. I'm glad I was able to help you see your long-term omission.  

When I was younger (okay, even today) I always thought it wasn't a real snow until the grass disappeared. For my yard, that's usually about 2". Another rule of thumb for my area, when a storm goes west of my location I can probably count on one hand the number of times I held on to snow long enough to eclipse 2". Just doesn't happen no matter what the models say unless there is some really significant CAD, AND the airmass is exceptionally dry going in. 

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I've been at camp over the weekend and will be back home and having more regular posting later tomorrow. Figured the wintry aspect of this current storm wasn't going to work out for most in here but it did shift enough in the end to give our neighbors in western PA what appears to be a good shot at widespread advisory type event even into Pittsburgh metro tomorrow with some warning totals NW PA/NE OH and also on the higher Laurel's ridges in SW PA. Could be some pretty big upslope totals there. Unfortunately for the central and LSV, the Allegheny Front will act like a brick wall not allowing the remaining precip shield with LES/oragraphic help to get much press off the mountains. As such, measurable totals will not venture much further east... likely staying along and west of I-99 south of UNV and def W and NW of that I-99/US 220/US 15 corridor in the northern part of the state. Some snow shower activity should make it west into the central and LSV though. Would consider 1-2" in play here at the foot of the Laurel's, so will see what happens. 

Models haven't been too hot on the late week system, although there is still some potential there. There's some big differences at 500mb between the models, with the Euro holding a lot of energy and a closed off low in the SW and the GFS ejecting shortwaves out but not producing an amplified enough system for our area. Def nothing set in stone there yet. Temps seasonable the rest of the week with some likely reinforcement of a cooler regime coming after this week. 

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