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Met1985

2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread

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We'll post the GFS this morning for next week, since the euro was nixed yesterday morning. This is through 7 days. Northern mtns score Monday some, then wed into thurs most all mtn locations score. Both ops show 2 waves next week. Trick as always is to get the cold in here. Hopefully the blocking showing up with staying power throughout December has legs. Never know which way the AO/Nao will swing. 

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

 

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On 12/6/2020 at 9:12 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m at just over 3,000 feet now ;)

I used to live on coxes creek I've seen some wild weather in the grassy creek area. I've seen it pour snow at the golf course pushing five inches get on up the road just a half mile to spruce pine barley anything. The escarpment plays a big role in that area imo. 

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

We'll post the GFS this morning for next week, since the euro was nixed yesterday morning. This is through 7 days. Northern mtns score Monday some, then wed into thurs most all mtn locations score. Both ops show 2 waves next week. Trick as always is to get the cold in here. Hopefully the blocking showing up with staying power throughout December has legs. Never know which way the AO/Nao will swing. 

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

 

Definitely an interesting week coming up. There’s lots of moving pieces, if we can tweak a few little things we’re set for a fun week of tracking.

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Temps all over the place this morning.  Left the house at 5 am and had upper 20’s-30 there, mid-20’s down around Sylva and the Tuckaseegee valley, 38 on 64 at Whiteside Mtn then back to around 30 where I am north of Highlands. 

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12z euro is interesting. Gfs is much different, if something like euro occurs I could see this trending better for climo favored areas in western part of NC. Blocking and hp to the north is classic cad setup 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Going to be an interesting week for sure, especially for northern mountain folks. 

.........December 09 miller b style?

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6 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

.........December 09 miller b style?

I don't think we have enough cold air around for a repeat of that one but that would be awesome. I think this could be more Elevation dependent unless the CAD high trends stronger.

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5 hours ago, WxKnurd said:

Temps all over the place this morning.  Left the house at 5 am and had upper 20’s-30 there, mid-20’s down around Sylva and the Tuckaseegee valley, 38 on 64 at Whiteside Mtn then back to around 30 where I am north of Highlands. 

Its fascinating to see the differences when I drive to work in the mornings. Often at my house near the Catawba its in the 20s or near 30 and by the time I am halfway up Old Fort mountain it will be 45 and then back down in the 30s in Swannanoa. 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Its fascinating to see the differences when I drive to work in the mornings. Often at my house near the Catawba its in the 20s or near 30 and by the time I am halfway up Old Fort mountain it will be 45 and then back down in the 30s in Swannanoa. 

Yea I was thinking inversion this morning from the temps I was seeing depending where I was in elevation but the back down to 30 at nearly the same elevation at 4000’ there me for a loop. Our mountains are unique and I love them.

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9 hours ago, McDowell_Weather said:

I used to live on coxes creek I've seen some wild weather in the grassy creek area. I've seen it pour snow at the golf course pushing five inches get on up the road just a half mile to spruce pine barley anything. The escarpment plays a big role in that area imo. 

Yep you’re right. The wind absolutely howls through here. I’m right on Dula Knob. 

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21 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Big run on the 18Z GFS for the mtn counties. Trended toward the 12Z euro. 

It was a fraction away from being a mountain wide snowstorm. 0.5-1” of precip with temps in the mid 30’s. Higher elevations are still able to cash in good this run. Maybe will see a trend to slightly colder.

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Models are so frustratingly close to a legit storm for the cad region Tuesday night-Wednesday. Cold Canadian hp funneling air down the apps and a storm signal but alas...it’s too weak and quick moving.

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Yea the models have went to big time suckage for both systems next week. The first one now more amped and stronger with 1 to 2 inches of rain area wide and the next one too weak and forms too late for any significant wintry weather. And after that it looks like a pattern change to warm. Afraid we may have to wait until January for our first legit winter storm threat...

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is still no dice for the mid week storm after heavy rain Sunday night/Monday morning. DC gets a nice snow so there's that! 

prateptype_cat.us_ma.png

The 117 hour is icy in Nc on the site I use. It definitely was a trend to wintry here in NC. The ensemble members have definitely been hinting at this for a few runs now. Good to see the OP heading that direction. Should be some good members here in about a hour. 

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I think there is a chance for some light freezing rain for the foothills and maybe light snow for the mountains but I'm not seeing a big system, it looks miller b-ish to me. 

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yeah the trend is pretty clear right now. 

Really interested in 114-126... I am reeled back in. 

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8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Euro looked like a step in the right direction. 

Really close to something big. Need that CAD to trend stronger. Huge run for the MA up I-81

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