Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread


Met1985
 Share

Recommended Posts

Cut the totals in half or even a third in some places and you still have WSW criteria. 
It's the NAM even a third might be generous. It wildly overstates upslope precip totals in most events. Did the same thing a couple years ago with a similar system.

The HRRR is probably more on the right track with its total qpf of .6 or so for the favored areas.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said:

It's the NAM even a third might be generous. It wildly overstates upslope precip totals in most events. Did the same thing a couple years ago with a similar system.

The HRRR is probably more on the right track with its total qpf of .6 or so for the favored areas.

The NAM underwent an upgrade a couple years back and since has actually been on the dryer end of quite a few events. Not saying it’s right here but that bias thankfully was almost completely eliminated in that upgrade. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Worth noting the RGEM also keeps the part of the northern escarpment up towards Boone below freezing for the entire event. Changes to snow at the end. 1/2-3/4" of QPF.

I could see that happening.  Around Boone north could just get decimated by ice then upslope behind as the system pulls NE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:
9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:
I could see that happening.  Around Boone north could just get decimated by ice then upslope behind as the system pulls NE.

Yeah looks like both the RGEM and NAM keep the 221 corridor from Newland north in the hot seat. HRRR is colder and would be some great sleet-sledding weather.

Yeah for sure. Eyewall has some thoughts about the latent heating also that could cut things down a lot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

At the 11th hour, euro finally fully onboard now. Actually keeps the east facing areas as all frozen throughout event now as either freezing rain or snow. 

I noticed that it was colder in the upper levels for the mountains too, close to being all snow and sleet for Mitchell County up to Watauga

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah for sure. Eyewall has some thoughts about the latent heating also that could cut things down a lot.

Yeah my only problem with that, for the mountains, is that the Boone area starts off in the upper-20s from what I've seen. Possibly a little cooler than that in the prime CAD areas. Off the mountain the totals definitely won't be as catastrophic as the NAM more than likely but I could see the northern mountain areas raking in a half inch of ice if things play out right.

 

Personally I'm good with a 33 and rain day over any zr.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...