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September 2020 wx discussion

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Temperatures rose into the lower and middle 70s today. Tomorrow will likely be several degrees warmer.

Parts of the Southwest experienced record-tying and record-breaking heat. High temperatures included:

Needles, CA: 112° (old record: 111°, 1924 and 2000)
Phoenix: 109° (tied record set in 1928)
Yuma, AZ: 111° (tied record set in 1922 and 2013)

More record heat covered parts of Europe today. High temperatures in France included:

Belin Beliet: 93°
Chateauvillain: 98°
Chablis: 94°
Cogolin: 93°
Durban-Corbières: 95°
Montignac: 93°

An even cooler air mass than the most recent one could arrive late in the week. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. There is an increasing possibility that September could wind up on the cool side of normal, which would be an uncommon event in recent cases preceding La Niña winters.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +14.09.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.096.

On September 15, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.428 (RMM). The September 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.033.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.3°.

Finally,on September 15, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 3.606 million square kilometers. To date, the summer minimum figure is 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest extent on record.

In contrast, according to NSIDC historical data, the 1920 minimum extent was approximately 8.826 million square kilometers and the 1970 minimum extent was 8.757 million square kilometers.

 

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i'm getting in on the photo game boys

i think i like the shot with the trees more

edit: the downsizing and image artifacts really piss me off but whatever

jus5mzY.jpgso6g7UH.jpg

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The next 8 days are averaging 66degs.     Make it 61degs., or -6.

65*(85%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.         71*(78%RH) by Noon.        74* by  2pm.

The Tropics:   21N 94W(new), 32N 86W(I did my dirty work),  19N 52W,  10N 26W.

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Saturday could be the earliest 50° of the season in NYC since 2013.

New York City...
   Central Park, NY
   Mocldy   Mocldy   Sunny    Sunny    Sunny    Sunny    Sunny
     /78    61/67    50/66    50/66    51/67    52/70    54/76
      /10    30/30    10/00    00/00    00/00    00/10    10/10


 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 05-14 (2017) 09-17 (2013) 113
Mean 05-20 10-03 135
Maximum 06-02 (2015) 10-13 (2018) 146
2019 05-15 (2019) 44 10-04 (2019) 50 141
2018 05-19 (2018) 49 10-13 (2018) 46 146
2017 05-14 (2017) 46 10-01 (2017) 50 139
2016 05-16 (2016) 43 10-10 (2016) 47 146
2015 06-02 (2015) 50 10-02 (2015) 48 121
2014 05-19 (2014) 49 10-05 (2014) 46 138
2013 05-26 (2013) 48 09-17 (2013) 50 113

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Saturday could be the earliest 50° of the season in NYC since 2013.

New York City...
   Central Park, NY
   Mocldy   Mocldy   Sunny    Sunny    Sunny    Sunny    Sunny
     /78    61/67    50/66    50/66    51/67    52/70    54/76
      /10    30/30    10/00    00/00    00/00    00/10    10/10


 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 05-14 (2017) 09-17 (2013) 113
Mean 05-20 10-03 135
Maximum 06-02 (2015) 10-13 (2018) 146
2019 05-15 (2019) 44 10-04 (2019) 50 141
2018 05-19 (2018) 49 10-13 (2018) 46 146
2017 05-14 (2017) 46 10-01 (2017) 50 139
2016 05-16 (2016) 43 10-10 (2016) 47 146
2015 06-02 (2015) 50 10-02 (2015) 48 121
2014 05-19 (2014) 49 10-05 (2014) 46 138
2013 05-26 (2013) 48 09-17 (2013) 50 113

 

Crazy how we go from ones of the latest 50s on record to the earliest 50 within a week

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Morning thoughts...

Clouds have overspread much of the region from southeastern New York State southward. However, there remain breaks in the clouds back in a large part of Pennsylvania. As a result, today will be variably cloudy. It will also be warmer than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°
Newark: 78°
Philadelphia: 77°

An even colder air mass than the the most recent cold shot will likely begin overspreading the region tomorrow. The coming weekend will see the coolest readings so far this season.

Farther south, the heavy rains from Sally are now moving out of the greater Atlanta area after dropping 3.57" rain from yesterday into early this morning. Sally's rains have moved into Greenville and will later be advancing into Charlotte and Fayetteville.

 

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It would be great if they could find a way to install one of these near an open section of Central Park. 

https://www.newswise.com/articles/nys-mesonet-con-edison-partner-to-launch-nyc-micronet-weather-observation-network

Newswise — ALBANY, N.Y. (Sept. 9, 2020) – A new cluster of weather-monitoring stations will offer New York City’s energy provider real-time data to keep service reliable and resilient for its customers.

Con Edison, the energy company that serves New York City and Westchester County, is working with the University at Albany’s New York State Mesonet on the “New York City Micronet,” a new network of 17 weather-monitoring stations that will be located at company properties in the City’s five boroughs.

The NYC Micronet, also supported by UAlbany’s Center of Excellence in Weather and Climate Analytics, will help Con Edison monitor high-impact weather events and track long-term climatic changes. Con Edison is investing $3 million in the network. That includes a $1.6 million contract with the University.

Installation started this month. The network is expected to be completed by the end of October.

“This partnership with Con Edison is the latest example of NYS Mesonet providing a service to make our state more resilient to increases in weather extremes and to better inform weather risk-management decisions,” said Chris Thorncroft, director of UAlbany’s Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, the NYS Mesonet and Center of Excellence. “UAlbany has direct access to the largest concentration of atmospheric, climate and environmental researchers in New York. We are continuing to create smart business solutions to empower industry partners statewide.”

“Climate change makes smart infrastructure planning and design essential,” said Charles Viemeister, Con Edison’s project manager. “We’ll use data from the Micronet to gain additional insight into the local short-term and longer-term impacts of climate change. We are always looking for technologies that can help us maintain the resilient, reliable service our customers need.”

The NYS Mesonet is the most advanced and largest early warning weather detection network in the nation. Its standard 126 weather stations, located across the state and in every county, offer real-time data on a number of weather variables including temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, pressure, precipitation, snow depth and soil moisture. Each station is also equipped with a camera for real-time photos.

UAlbany’s Center of Excellence in Weather & Climate Analytics is New York’s entrepreneurial hub for a network of more than 120 weather and climate faculty, researchers and research staff. Together, these experts are deeply engaged in advancing innovative weather and climate research applications for a variety of industries including utilities, agriculture, renewable energy, emergency management, transportation and Unmanned Aerial Systems. During the COVID-19 crisis, they have supported all New York utilities by providing a sophisticated weather dashboard to enhance situational awareness.

The NYC Micronet is a customized version of NYS Mesonet’s standard network and will undergo the same regular maintenance, data quality control, sensor calibrations, and visualization, performed daily at UAlbany’s Mesonet Operations Center and by technicians in the field.

This project adds to an already established relationship between UAlbany and Con Edison. In 2019, the two partners, along with MESO, Inc. created the Wind Extremes Forecast System (WEFS). It uses a combination of regional NYS Mesonet data and machine learning techniques to produce forecasts of threshold wind speeds and gusts that could lead to power outages at county and sub-county levels in New York State. 

“The goal, with both the Micronet and WEFS, is to provide NYC’s primary utility provider with valuable environmental data that can help improve resiliency for its services and mobilize resources more efficiently when severe weather strikes,” said Jerry Brotzge, NYS Mesonet program manager. “Our weather stations are quietly driving decision-making in a variety of sectors.”

NYS Mesonet data and visualizations are available for viewing at www.nysmesonet.org


https://qns.com/2020/09/con-edison-to-install-eight-weather-stations-in-queens-to-better-track-climate-trends/

In order to better understand climate trends and protect its power systems, Con Edison has partnered with the State University of New York at Albany and invested $3 million to install eight weather stations across Queens and nine more across New York, the power company announced this week.

The New York City Micronet project will see weather stations installed in Flushing, Long Island City, Astoria, Howard Beach, South Ozone Park and Maspeth. The data from the stations will help Con Edison guide its investments towards protecting its energy-delivery systems from severe weather events, according to the company.

A record number of Con Edison customers in the New York City area lost power during Tropical Storm Isaias in early August, including 73,000 customers in Queens. However, the installation of the weather stations is unrelated to the damage caused by Isaias, according Con Edison. The power stations were in progress prior to Isaias and are instead a response to all of the severe weather New York City has experienced in the past decade, a representative for the company said.

“Climate change makes smart infrastructure planning and design essential,” said Charles Viemeister, Con Edison’s project manager. “We’ll use data from the Micronet to gain additional insight into the local short-term and longer-term impacts of climate change. We are always looking for technologies that can help us maintain the resilient, reliable service our customers need.”

The weather stations will monitor temperature, air pressure, wind speeds and direction, precipitation and other weather variables. Six of the stations will be installed on the roofs of Con Edison buildings and the other 11 will be installed at ground level on Con Edison property.

The data collected by the weather stations will be sent to the university, which will in turn give the data to Con Edison and be made available to the public, the company said.

Con Edison expects the weather stations to be installed and fully operational by the end of 2020.

In addition to the weather stations, Con Edison has begun to make upgrades to its energy delivering system in Westchester County, which was heavily affected by Tropical Storm Isaias. The power company also recently commissioned a weather study, which suggested the company make an investment between $1.8 billion and $5.2 billion by 2050 on targeted programs to protect its systems against severe weather events.

 

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On 9/16/2020 at 8:24 AM, SnoSki14 said:

40s this morning, probably the coolest weather since May or about 4 months. 

Looks really cool this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised to see lows undercutting guidance by several degrees so upper 30s maybe? 

Interesting that forecast discussion points out smoke will keep temps down several degrees today. Likely had an impact yesterday as well. 

the TCs in the Atlantic are sucking in the smoke from the west

 

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On 9/16/2020 at 8:35 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Today will be sunny and somewhat milder. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 73°

Tomorrow will be milder, but an even colder air mass than the most recent cold shot could arrive late in the week.  

Hurricane Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, AL with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. So far, Sally has brought 24.80" rain to Escambia, FL and 24.81" to Pensacola Naval Air Station. The ASOS at Pensacola Region Airport was knocked out yesterday evening. A storm report stated, "Landscape and architectural debris found lining the streets of downtown Mobile, AL."

 

121 mph wind gust reported on AL barrier island and rainfall of 30" + near Pensacola

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I knew that massive high to our northeast would come into play sooner or later.

This may not be the last time this year either.

 

That storm looks like it will hit Nova Scotia.

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23 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like ISP made it down to 50°. Getting closer to the average first 40s date of the season since 2010.

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 05-13 (2011) 09-02 (2017) 85
Mean 05-29 09-20 113
Maximum 06-12 (2018) 10-12 (2018) 131
2019 06-04 (2019) 46 09-19 (2019) 46 106
2018 06-12 (2018) 48 10-12 (2018) 49 121
2017 06-08 (2017) 47 09-02 (2017) 49 85
2016 05-23 (2016) 49 09-25 (2016) 48 124
2015 05-23 (2015) 48 10-02 (2015) 49 131
2014 06-01 (2014) 49 09-23 (2014) 45 113
2013 05-28 (2013) 48 09-09 (2013) 49 103
2012 06-06 (2012) 49 09-17 (2012) 49 102
2011 05-13 (2011) 47 09-19 (2011) 49 128
2010 05-20 (2010) 49 09-16 (2010) 47 118

It looks like there was a 49 low on 9-2-2017?

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

121 mph wind gust reported on AL barrier island and rainfall of 30" + near Pensacola

 

There was additional rainfall. However, it seems that unlike a few years ago, WPC no longer provides precipitation amounts for ongoing events. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Most likely scenario. A bit too early to see a big phased in trough, but October could be interesting. 

But we saw it in early August with Isaias.

Either way, I think we aren't done with EC TC.  The next one we get will most likely be from the Greek alphabet lol.

 

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Today saw temperatures top out in the middle and upper 70s. However, this warmth will be short-lived. The coldest air mass so far this season will begin to overspread the region tomorrow. The coming weekend will be unseasonably chilly. Even Central Park could see the temperature drop below 50° for the first time in September since September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°.

Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. There is an increasing possibility that September could wind up on the cool side of normal, which would be an uncommon event in recent cases preceding La Niña winters.

Elsewhere, Phoenix reached 109° today, which tied the daily record set in 1962. Today was also the 120th time this year that Phoenix reached 100° or above. 2020 is just the 7th year on record with 120 or more 100° readings. The last such year was 2018 with 128 days. The 30-year moving average is now 110.5 days. The 30-year moving average in 2010 was 109.6 days. Records go back to August 1895.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +17.89.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.292.

On September 16, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.620 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.428.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.1°.

Finally,on September 16, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 3.630 million square kilometers. To date, the summer minimum figure is 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest extent on record.

In contrast, according to NSIDC historical data, the 1920 minimum extent was approximately 8.826 million square kilometers and the 1970 minimum extent was 8.757 million square kilometers.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 67degs.      Make it 62degs,  or -5.0.

This GFS run again looks unbridled starting the 23rd.----with 7 80's, 1 90, and 3 more lows in the 70's!

The Tropics:    36.5N 76.0W-Sally leftovers entering the Atlantic,   22.5N. 94.0W-the Wanderer,   21.5N 55.0W-Oh the games I played with Sally that u did not read about, finally 12N 31W.

64*(82%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.     68* by 1pm.      71* by 5pm.       84* by 9pm

 

 

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Looks like we here in Wantage NJ are in the midst of at least a 14 dry spell having started early on the 11th with the xext chance of measurable rain here around the 24th-25th and per the NAEFS, nothing significant through Oct 2.  Good thing days are shorter and overall it's much cooler, so remaining flowers not nipped by frost here in the I84 corridor valleys (Sat-Tue mornings), won't need as much watering. Might??? become interesting for small scale fires around here if this keeps up...especially se NYS  (added graphic qpf % departure last 2 weeks and then am mentally projecting ahead next 1-3 weeks). 

West Coast smoke overhead along I95 corridor through the I84 corridor today sinks southward so that by tonight we should be pretty much cleaned out as it sinks into the southeast USA. 

Finally, while the NAEFS was indeed too far too north for early today, it and the UKMET (past two cycles) especially picked up on a secondary area of relatively heavy qpf that occurred this morning on the north shore of LI (Suffolk County especially) with 0.5 to .85" amounts are noted in WU data and on the digital radar precip estimates.  Overall however, I think the GFS did best on northern extent of qpf throughout the prior week of forecast cycles. 656A/18

Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 6.48.15 AM.png

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Morning thoughts...

A strong cold front is moving across the area. Clouds will gradually give way to partly sunny skies. Temperatures will rise mainly into the upper 60s to around 70° across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°
Newark: 70°
Philadelphia: 70°

This weekend will see the coolest readings so far this season.

 

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