powderfreak Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I could see a zone to the north along the actual front itself like on some of the hi res. This won't be strictly a S coast thing at all. But, there may be a Stein zone possible in between. Fairly certain no matter what the set up, Kev will assume no rain regardless of modeling until he actually gets a soaking rain. It’s like late in a snowless winter, no one expects it to happen. Hope that poor guy gets some rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Fairly certain no matter what the set up, Kev will assume no rain regardless of modeling until he actually gets a soaking rain. It’s like late in a snowless winter, no one expects it to happen. Hope that poor guy gets some rain. He's flooding me with texts about this being a S coast deal...lol. I don't agree. NAM jacks NW MA and nrn ORH county through tomorrow aftn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Sun going to come out down the cape today? That fog bank that rolled in yesterday late afternoon was the real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Sun going to come out down the cape today? That fog bank that rolled in yesterday late afternoon was the real deal Might be stubborn HYA east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 I see S coast jacking. And pike region . In between stein rams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Just beaten down by Mother Nature... “everywhere else will rain but me.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Just beaten down by Mother Nature... “everywhere else will rain but me.” At this point, may his house wash away down the hillside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 37 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just beaten down by Mother Nature... “everywhere else will rain but me.” So should I not water the seed today? You feel great about a soaker right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Models had it then lost it and now its back again. New patterns emerging. Persistence is changing does that include nne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: He's flooding me with texts about this being a S coast deal...lol. I don't agree. NAM jacks NW MA and nrn ORH county through tomorrow aftn. That would suck.... we are supposed to do in person meet n greets with our students and their families outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: So should I not water the seed today? You feel great about a soaker right? You water seed every day, but I feel good about at least your seed getting watered naturally, tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That would suck.... we are supposed to do in person meet n greets with our students and their families outside We do remote ones today. I feel like I'm living in The Twilight Zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That would suck.... we are supposed to do in person meet n greets with our students and their families outside I am about to do an outdoor meet and greet right now with our teacher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You water seed every day, but I feel good about at least your seed getting watered naturally, tomorrow. I’m not saying no rain. What I’m saying is I feel as the look of this has much of C and N CT getting web handed by Stein. Like .10-.20 or something. Of course that wets the dust for the day but evaporates by noon the next day . You and Freak may be totally correct with your flood forecasts and jacks here.. I just see it being north and especially south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 0z GFS PARA fantasy land teaser 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: So should I not water the seed today? You feel great about a soaker right? I haven’t looked at anything but know you are forecasting with emotion. Actually, just looked at 12z... the 3km NAM, 12km NAM, GGEM, ICON, UKMET all have 0.50”< for you... 12z GFS is delayed by NCEP. ECM isn’t out yet. We’ll see. But right now from a guidance perspective there would be no reason to think it doesn’t water your lawn unless forecasting based on pessimism. It’s not a flood forecast or whatever you want to spin it, but there’s no reason looking at every single 12z model that it won’t be a decent rain of 1/3-2/3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not saying no rain. What I’m saying is I feel as the look of this has much of C and N CT getting web handed by Stein. Like .10-.20 or something. Of course that wets the dust for the day but evaporates by noon the next day . You and Freak may be totally correct with your flood forecasts and jacks here.. I just see it being north and especially south coast Ha. Who said jacks and floods? You’re a trip. I guess my point is the guidance looks fine but I get how the mind plays into it. It’s happened to all of us when every snow event falls apart for two months, even looking right at one your mind sees how it fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I haven’t looked at anything but know you are forecasting with emotion. Actually, just looked at 12z... the 3km NAM, 12km NAM, GGEM, ICON, UKMET all have 0.50”< for you... 12z GFS is delayed by NCEP. ECM isn’t out yet. We’ll see. But right now from a guidance perspective there would be no reason to think it doesn’t water your lawn unless forecasting based on pessimism. It’s not a flood forecast or whatever you want to spin it, but there’s no reason looking at every single 12z model that it won’t be a decent rain of 1/3-2/3”. GFS gets him decent rain too. If you get 0.30" that is fine with September sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I haven’t looked at anything but know you are forecasting with emotion. Actually, just looked at 12z... the 3km NAM, 12km NAM, GGEM, ICON, UKMET all have 0.50”< for you... 12z GFS is delayed by NCEP. ECM isn’t out yet. We’ll see. But right now from a guidance perspective there would be no reason to think it doesn’t water your lawn unless forecasting based on pessimism. It’s not a flood forecast or whatever you want to spin it, but there’s no reason looking at every single 12z model that it won’t be a decent rain of 1/3-2/3”. You do realize they’ve been showing that each and every event all summer right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 12z UKMET is pretty wet. We’ll see what Euro has later. GGEM ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Ukie shows the Stein shafting perfectly. Crushed north of pike and south coast with little in between . Obviously noones taking qpf totals verbatim in summer convection . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You do realize they’ve been showing that each and every event all summer right? Then what are you basing your ideas off of? Persistence? Fear? Perpetual sinking air that the models can’t see over N.CT that’s like a standing wave of sink since May? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: does that include nne? You get nothing............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 No rain for me up here unless more of a north trend. We just took a 8 mile bike ride. Many small trees have drooping leaves. Not turning color just drooping or even turning brown on some small trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 'Cause youuuuuu could be Steinnnnned Missed by raaaaain, all the tiiiiiime When the rain stops falling And the well is gone The lawn is done I said youuuuu, could be Steinnnnnned 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Then what are you basing your ideas off of? Persistence? Fear? Perpetual sinking air that the models can’t see over N.CT that’s like a standing wave of sink since May? The bolded....it's emotional forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The bolded....it's emotional forecasting. I’ve been there, ha. That’s what I was saying, like when you get 2 months of failed snow events, even if the models show you at 6-12” with 24 hours to go, your mind starts with the defense mechanisms... it’ll go south, banding will go north, you start almost making up reasons why the models are wrong. We’ve all been there but I know it takes a good face slap by you or Scooter to snap out of that unscientific line of thinking, ha. Looking at 12z I’d go like 1/3rd to 2/3rds of an inch for Tolland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: No rain for me up here unless more of a north trend. We just took a 8 mile bike ride. Many small trees have drooping leaves. Not turning color just drooping or even turning brown on some small trees. Yeah looking pretty dry for most of NH on all modeling. I'm doing OK locally with soil moisture after the 1-2" a week or so ago. At least insolation is declining so there isn't as much moisture loss as near the solar peak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 A lot of Fear mongering these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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