• Member Statistics

    16,019
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BlckJckKhoWX
    Newest Member
    BlckJckKhoWX
    Joined
wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

Recommended Posts

I really thorought a 2 was a layup by now over that 29c water.

Bust.

I will take my 5 inches of rain and root for a spin up tomorrow and Tuesday.

Looks like 2 very active days coming up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PB-99 said:

I really thorought a 2 was a layup by now over that 29c water.

Bust.

I will take my 5 inches of rain and root for a spin up tomorrow and Tuesday.

Looks like 2 very active days coming up.

It looked like it was

The shear is really taking a big toll on the storm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I really thorought a 2 was a layup by now over that 29c water.

Bust.

I will take my 5 inches of rain and root for a spin up tomorrow and Tuesday.

Looks like 2 very active days coming up.

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

D9FF1840-3206-40E0-AA17-ECD84CAA6F57.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

D9FF1840-3206-40E0-AA17-ECD84CAA6F57.png

Looks intense!   LOL  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

D9FF1840-3206-40E0-AA17-ECD84CAA6F57.png

Thought it was going to be well away from DR and Cuba decent.

That didn't happen.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NJwx85 said:

Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.

heavy rains for sure-maybe some gusty winds, but nothing crazy.   The flooding threat is the big concern for places that get storms tomorrow, the possible PRE and then west of the storm track for the main show...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

D9FF1840-3206-40E0-AA17-ECD84CAA6F57.png

Ehh garbage. May not still be a hurricane. Good news for FL which has enough on its hands already 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models pretty adamant that this gets a burst of energy once it's shooting up the coast, must be that anomalous jet streak. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see it trend stronger as it comes north, even if it's just inland. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Speaking of which, downgraded to TS at 5pm

Nhc expecting to go back to a hurricane

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nhc expecting to go back to a hurricane

For sure it’s going to restructure and become one but once it peaks Orlando latitude it will become more of just a regular storm that drops buckets of rain and small amounts of wind. Storm surge may be a problem for parts of Long Island in the worst spots we already know about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nhc expecting to go back to a hurricane

Goes back to a weak 1.

A half of foot in rain in spots will be wild 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't write it too far off as shear forecasts were a bit more generous this weekend into early next week and again, there's hurricane soup in front of it.  But man it looks bad.  Might just get picked up as a big warm front by Monday.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Goes back to a weak 1.

A half of foot in rain in spots will be wild 

Agree

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There appears to be quite a blow up of thunderstorms near the eye. Apparently these thunderstorms are not vertically aligned but will have to watch to see if that changes.

For anyone interested this is a pretty good hurricane info page. You can scroll down to the satellite view and see what I am talking about with the thunderstorm blow up.         https://spaghettimodels.com/

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, lee59 said:

There appears to be quite a blow up of thunderstorms near the eye. Apparently these thunderstorms are not vertically aligned but will have to watch to see if that changes.

For anyone interested this is a pretty good hurricane info page. You can scroll down to the satellite view and see what I am talking about with the thunderstorm blow up.         https://spaghettimodels.com/

 

Yep, just looked. Definitely a huge burst

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

go with tc climo for this type of system. hugs the coast, best rains from the city west, best winds on central and eastern LI

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

these don't go far inland as they ride north unless a powerful block/phase forces them

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Animal said:

Sorta of alarming with your post regarding tomorrow.

Sorry, been out at family gatherings the past couple of days (distanced).  Yes,  I "think" this is going to be a multi episodic day in our NYC forum Sunday. 

8A-1P n NJ se NYS maybe reaching NYC around Noon.  I expect 1 to 3 SVR's and associated 1" 30 minute drenchers moving ne in  WAA with diffluent 1000-500mb thickness and decent winds aloft. Then ~1 PM Sunday afternoon...ne PA/nw NJ and SE NYS shuts off, with potential for strong convection shifting only into a few spots of CT and central NJ. Thereafter, the  trough approaching from the west , should activate a scattered-broken line of severe thunderstorms in remaining relatively high CAPE between 5P and midnight.  First in e PA 5P-8P then possibly training SVR's or FFW in the I78-I195 corridor 8P-midnight.  This based on a shot of drying midday moving into ne NJ/interior se NYS, then everything rejuicing late in the day-as it's recovered,  and I think primed for release with the trough approaching.  Need other input-guidance assessments but that's the way I see it. HI in PHL should rise to 100 tomorrow which tells me plenty of instability feeding in on the sw flow ahead of the trough. 

I think a PRE is likely Monday night from e PA into se NYS and w CT... i could be too far south on this and/or I could be totally mistaken that it occurs at aLL, but if occurs, 4-8" IN 6-12 HOURS and isolated svr  within a fairly narrow swath. Again input from the experts on PRE sought. 

Isaias as you all see and think per NHC/local offices and AMWX.  

I have seen model guidance over 10" in in a small part of our area by 12z Wednesday.  PRE"s and Tropical storm rains don't necessarily overlap... if they do, that's bad news (significant flooding in  the overlap area which might be w CT?).  The only other thing on Isaias... I'd like this to look more like a TS in its rain bands by the time it gets to NC. I think jet dynamics might straighten this storm out, which has not been very pretty so far- yet it has, as bad as it's looked, it's been fairly powerful.  kind of an oddball storm which may mean it's odd all the way up the coast?

In summary not much change from what I saw on the 00z/1 cycle.  I have to take this one event at a time.  Right now, let's see if SVR reports can be fairly widespread in our area by 1201AM Monday.  Will reassess Sunday morning ~7A.  835P/1

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

these don't go far inland as they ride north unless a powerful block/phase forces them

How much you thinking for our area ? I’m in union county as well . 3-6 inches of rain ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

How much you thinking for our area ? I’m in union county as well . 3-6 inches of rain ?

Nt sure who're asking... but from my standpoint,  FFW likely, even if for only 4 hours.  BUT BUT BUT.. as good as this looks right now and has for several days... something always goes wrong.  If I'm working, I'd probably want to be safely home by Noonish Tuesday and may not have to work on Wednesday  due to the impacts-power outages and/or pockets of leftover flooding.  Your 3-6 for the event sounds good... might end up just near 3? or quite a bit more, Take the near 3 as a good start. Storm goes w of you, then little chance of 3, more like just 1.  WPC has you a good swath and the NAEFS looks big for NJ/NYC Hud Valley/far w CT. Lets see what happens. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.