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Svr potential Monday July 6 2P-10P NY metro


wdrag
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SPC D1 prompts this topic. Have a little concern that todays strongest storms (2-3" rain producers/damaging wind) will be concentrated down in central or s NJ, but some spots in our NY metro from NYC westward should see isolated SVR late today. Think eastern LI is out of it today.  

However,  with the large CAPE axis just s of us, cannot rule out a cluster of drenching thunderstorms forming-developing eastward later tonight and eventually making it to eastern LI. This latter is with considerable uncertainty. 

 

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Outflow generated but all these, wherever they develop should eventually turn south or southeast guided by mid level flow and heading for higher CAPE which appears to me south of I80 (also a boundary apparent in NNJ, per check 14z wind field only).  No cu here yet in Wantage--definitely bothersome especially for 84/68.   Will see what happens. Off line for a while. 1033A/6

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52 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Outflow generated but all these, wherever they develop could eventually turn south or southeast guided by mid level flow and heading for higher CAPE which appears to me south of I80 (also a boundary apparent in NNJ, per check 14z wind field only).  No cu here yet in Wantage--definitely bothersome especially for 84/68.   Will see what happens. Off line for a while. 1033A/6

 

Yeh, you can see the Cape advancing to 78 ish. 

Even the 3k is to the Driscoll too.

Maybe a few sneak into the lower boroughs ? 

 

hrrr_cape_neus_5.png

 

nam3km_cape_neus_4.png

 

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Severe Weather Statement

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

NJC023-025-029-061915-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-200706T1915Z/
Ocean NJ-Monmouth NJ-Middlesex NJ-
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN OCEAN...SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...

At 240 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Marlboro to Adelphia to near Lakewood to Old Halfway,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs,
         siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toms River, Long Branch, Asbury Park, Lakewood, Jackson, Howell,
Manalapan, Tinton Falls, Beachwood, Manasquan, Point Pleasant Beach,
Seaside Heights, Lakehurst, Farmingdale, Mantoloking, Allenwood, East
Freehold, West Freehold, Adelphia and Vista Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 21 and 34.
 Garden State Parkway between mile markers 73 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 7397 4007 7403 3980 7406 3984 7443
      3987 7444 4015 7436 4030 7444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 252DEG 26KT 4032 7424 4022 7422 4007 7425 3987
7442

HAIL...1.00IN
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19 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Came in just to say that.  Never seen outflow so pronounced.

I have seen circular outflow on radars in other parts of the country. But this may be the first that I can recall around this area.

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I have seen circular outflow on radars in other parts of the country. But this may be the first that I can recall around this area.

 

Wow that's a great view.  And then I assume the outflow stops the convergence and chokes the storm out?

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3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Some big CTG bolts dropping no more than 1,000 feet away.  Major rainmaker, plenty of lightning, not much wind and no hail.

And that big storm is missing us by just a few miles here in Piscataway yet again. Just like every storm last week. This is becoming so ridiculous it's comical. It's so dry here that yellow/brown leaves are falling off the trees into my yard, yet just a few miles away there has been plenty of rain in the last week. How does every single storm always miss us?

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1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

The training down near Philly is intense. 

Stormspotter in that is loving it, lol  All these cells missed me so far.  I'm guessing @Allsnow is getting it good.

 

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And that big storm is missing us by just a few miles here in Piscataway yet again. Just like every storm last week. This is becoming so ridiculous it's comical. It's so dry here that yellow/brown leaves are falling off the trees into my yard, yet just a few miles away there has been plenty of rain in the last week. How does every single storm always miss us?

Funny, my sister that is near Lake Nelson said it was pouring, but my mother in law that is by quick check on River Road got nothing.  Your area and mine has been missing out on these the past few weeks.  

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And that big storm is missing us by just a few miles here in Piscataway yet again. Just like every storm last week. This is becoming so ridiculous it's comical. It's so dry here that yellow/brown leaves are falling off the trees into my yard, yet just a few miles away there has been plenty of rain in the last week. How does every single storm always miss us?

lol I am at work in NBR is it seriously dry in Piscataway?  NBR is getting pasted.

4 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The training down near Philly is intense. 

Is training the right word?  Trains move.

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2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Stormspotter in that is loving it, lol  All these cells missed me so far.  I'm guessing @Allsnow is getting it good.

 

Funny, my sister that is near Lake Nelson said it was pouring, but my mother in law that is by quick check on River Road got nothing.  Your area and mine has been missing out on these the past few weeks.  

I need that Edison cell to cut SE 

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10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And that big storm is missing us by just a few miles here in Piscataway yet again. Just like every storm last week. This is becoming so ridiculous it's comical. It's so dry here that yellow/brown leaves are falling off the trees into my yard, yet just a few miles away there has been plenty of rain in the last week. How does every single storm always miss us?

 Looks like it was missing my house by a couple miles. But I'm on the Parkway in Monmouth county getting hit hard 

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