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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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The next 8 days are averaging 85degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.3[78.7].        Should be about  +3.7[80.6] by the 28th.

     Hey! even the EURO is hotter than a picnic charcoal for the next 10 days.

80*(92%RH) HeatIndex=87* here at 6am, scattered cirrus.       83*(86%RH) at 9am, Heat Index=93*.      86(72%RH)Heat Index=96* at 10am.          87*(65%RH)Heat Index=96* by Noon.

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Wantage NJ .02 in a brief heavy shower around 215A.  75/74 as of 638A..small patches of blue sky seen through deck of AC.

Updating the outlook from previous mornings. 

Wednesday: Please see SPC D3 marginal risk for our area. Wind fields stronger than those of late yesterday and today, and much more CAPE/KI will be place.

Thursday: Convection still possible. 

Sat night-Sunday strong thunderstorm northwest flow event...may be delayed to Sun night-Monday? Looks potent for a quick moving complex somewhere through the northeast quad of the country. 

Monday-Wednesday: EC is bonkers on heat and usually overdone - subject to large error...but ring of fire convection possible (around the rim of the Great Lakes northward bulging ridge) -in other words, 1 or 2 northwest flow events possible if not mid level thermally capped. Uncertain but interesting.   648A/20

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19 minutes ago, Cfa said:

82/79 here....getting close.

An official 80° DP at ISP would be cool.

Looks like a 79° dew point at ISP now. New July record for 8am. Notice how many new hourly July records in recent years.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&month=jul&var=max_dwpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png

28A5DD9E-CCD0-46C8-B2D7-6B9D8EA381CB.thumb.png.15ab8d7bcd8b31b5aa7b0d3d27f41d2f.png

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a 79° dew point at ISP now. New July record for 8am. Notice how many new hourly July records in recent years.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&month=jul&var=max_dwpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png

28A5DD9E-CCD0-46C8-B2D7-6B9D8EA381CB.thumb.png.15ab8d7bcd8b31b5aa7b0d3d27f41d2f.png

Wow. And it’s interesting how the dates are all similar, generally 7/18-7/21.

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86/76 low clouds , fog has burned away and off to the races temps vs any afternoon storms that form.  Only clouds will hinder 100 at EWR, LGA, JFK, other inland sites, perhaps NYC 97 or 98.  Recent dryness could aid those temps drier since Fay (7/10).   Heat index values steamy today 102 - 109 range.  Looking ahead Tuesday continues the heatwave but winds so Southerly by the evening bringing the truly high dewpoints and widespread storms.  So if enough sun even in the early morning or later afternoon or early evening ould get more 90s to continue the heatwave for day 5 on Wed as the WAR builds south of the area and 850s surge again to >18c.  Thu pending on leftover clouds and storms should get most areas to low 90s.  Friday and Saturday will see a pause in the heat for most, especially Saturday with a stong onshore flow as strong trough moves through the New England. 

Sun (7/26) Next strong heat signal with models indicating strong WAR and SE ridge pushing heights and temps up through the end of Jul  As always need to watch storms chances and any hung up fronts with such a strong Western Atlantic Ridge.

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