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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted

Wantage (southern part). Max 91.4.  Currently 91/73 at 5PM.  on SVR for Monday...  think SPC did right cutting back on nw extent in our area. No topic at this time.  Think it could go big near I80 south between 2-5P and then out of NYC forum by 8P.  might start up here in nw NJ/se NYS as isolated thundershowers and grow in the more favorable environment I80 south some time around 2 or 3P.  

Meanwhile, leftover severe remnants from the POH Valley NYS/PA  seem destined to die se NYS/extreme nw NJ as showers/iso thunderbetween 2A-5A  Monday. 

Will comment in the morning based on SPCD1 etc. 

Enjoy the heat and cooling breezes!  503P/19

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 7/18/2020 at 6:06 PM, jm1220 said:

I drove down to Long Beach today and the humidity here made it feel even worse despite it being cooler. That’s how it works-it might be cooler down here in these heat waves but the humidity mitigates it and today then some. The water’s plenty warm too because of the onshore flow all this time-no upwelling. 

thats exactly what I'm saying- I heartv  mets say ohh long island has the sea breeze and they get jealous as if it's 75 here or something.  The "sea breeze" here isn't much better than it is in the Louisiana swamps and smells just as bad......

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 7/18/2020 at 6:12 PM, bluewave said:

These ocean temperatures near 80°have become the norm in recent years.
  


NY Harb Entrance 2150               78

 

But those water temps are only near the surface, I think some are under the mistaken impression that we can get Cat 4/5 hurricanes like areas further south can.  The warm water extends to much deeper depths down there and upwelling here means those warm ocean temps dont last very long.  As a matter of fact, a nice hot land breeze actually means more upwelling and cooler sea surface temps and a yucky humid breeze from the SE is what makes the sst warmer and yet the coast cooler.

The strength of oncoming tropical cyclones around here has much more to do with the overall pattern and the speed of the oncoming storm rather than how warm or cool the sst are.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 7/17/2020 at 9:55 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Three warmest 4-Site Averages (JFK-LGA-NYC-EWR) for June-August:

1. 78.3, 2010
2. 77.4, 2016
3. 77.0, 2005

2010 agrees well with my own observations that it was our hottest summer EVER :-)

However I found both 2016 and 2005 to be lackluster because of lack of 100 degree temps on the coast.

I have my own list for the hottest summers and these are them in chronological order:

1991

1993

1999

2010

2011

honorable mention goes to  1983 and 1995 and 2002.

I find the number of 90 degree days and number of 100 degree days to be more important than avg temps when I gauge which summers are the "hottest."

That 10 day streak of 90+ and 3 straight 100+ in July 1993 really stand out to me as the hottest weather I've ever experienced here.

The streak of 3 days out of 4 at 100+ at JFK in 2010 comes close, but that was a drier (nicer) heat.

Overall though 2010 > 1993 and they are both in my short list for hottest summers.

If I had to go back in time I'd say 1966 belongs on this list too, possibly second only to 2010 for its streak of 100+

And 1953 because of that record streak of 90+ and 100+ in late August and September!

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 7/17/2020 at 6:01 AM, wdrag said:

I think the data is not tainted if foliage is similar over the years.  I don't want to get into the weeds on this, but CP has a problem if indeed it has become overgrown like this. Fortunately we have many other sites nearby with period of record beyond 50 years.  I think Blue Hill has handled it thoughtfully well to keep the record relatively intact, as in it's beginnings. 

Yes, it seems like things changed after the 90s, before then NYC was fairly consistent with the rest of the area with its 90+ numbers.

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2010 agrees well with my own observations that it was our hottest summer EVER :-)

However I found both 2016 and 2005 to be lackluster because of lack of 100 degree temps on the coast.

I have my own list for the hottest summers and these are them in chronological order:

1991

1993

1999

2010

2011

honorable mention goes to 1995 and 2002.

I find the number of 90 degree days and number of 100 degree days to be more important than avg temps when I gauge which summers are the "hottest."

That 10 day streak of 90+ and 3 straight 100+ in July 1993 really stand out to me as the hottest weather I've ever experienced here.

The streak of 3 days out of 4 at 100+ at JFK in 2010 comes close, but that was a drier (nicer) heat.

Overall though 2010 > 1993 and they are both in my short list for hottest summers.

If I had to go back in time I'd say 1966 belongs on this list too, possibly second only to 2010 for its streak of 100+

And 1953 because of that record streak of 90+ and 100+ in late August and September!

 

70° minimums have been more impressive than 90° maximums at JFK since the record dew point surge began with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

A9FCE842-F249-4935-B7AF-6C9A928C8FF8.png.96382f1f5827558cc056dec94f388eb4.png

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
1 2016 55 0
2 2015 53 0
3 2010 51 0
4 2018 49 0
5 2012 48 0
- 1983 48 0
6 1980 47 0
- 1971 47 0
7 1984 46 0
8 2013 44 0
- 1999 44 0
9 2005 40 0
- 1995 40 0
- 1981 40 0
- 1970 40 0
10 2011 39 0
- 1969 39 0
11 2019 38 0
- 1961 38 0
Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 32 0
2 1983 26 0
3 2002 21 0
4 1971 18 0
5 2005 17 0
- 1991 17 0
6 2012 16 0
7 2016 15 0
- 1995 15 0
- 1961 15 0
8 1999 14 0
- 1988 14 0
- 1966 14 0
9 2011 13 0
- 1993 13 0
- 1984 13 0
- 1977 13 0
- 1970 13 0
- 1969 13 0
- 1963 13 0
10 2015 12 0
- 2006 12 0
- 2003 12 0
- 1978 12 0
- 1968 12 0
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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

70° minimums have been more impressive than 90° maximums at JFK since the record dew point surge began with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

A9FCE842-F249-4935-B7AF-6C9A928C8FF8.png.96382f1f5827558cc056dec94f388eb4.png

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
1 2016 55 0
2 2015 53 0
3 2010 51 0
4 2018 49 0
5 2012 48 0
- 1983 48 0
6 1980 47 0
- 1971 47 0
7 1984 46 0
8 2013 44 0
- 1999 44 0
9 2005 40 0
- 1995 40 0
- 1981 40 0
- 1970 40 0
10 2011 39 0
- 1969 39 0
11 2019 38 0
- 1961 38 0
Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 32 0
2 1983 26 0
3 2002 21 0
4 1971 18 0
5 2005 17 0
- 1991 17 0
6 2012 16 0
7 2016 15 0
- 1995 15 0
- 1961 15 0
8 1999 14 0
- 1988 14 0
- 1966 14 0
9 2011 13 0
- 1993 13 0
- 1984 13 0
- 1977 13 0
- 1970 13 0
- 1969 13 0
- 1963 13 0
10 2015 12 0
- 2006 12 0
- 2003 12 0
- 1978 12 0
- 1968 12 0

I wonder if we'll get the much needed turnaround next summer?  If any summer can do it, it'll be next year's.

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

In parts of the region, today was the hottest day so far this season. High temperatures included:

Albany: 93°
Baltimore: 100°
Boston: 95°
Burlington: 95°
Harrisburg: 100°
Hartford: 99°
New York City: 94°
Newark: 96°
Philadelphia: 95°
Washington, DC: 99°

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 19):

Albany: 11 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 10 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 25 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 3 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 14 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 15 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 1 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 4 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 14 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 8 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 12 (2019: 27 days)
Philadelphia: 17 (2019: 35 days)
Washington, DC: 27 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 10 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 9 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will again see temperatures reach the middle and upper 90s in parts of the region. Areas running from central Pennsylvania to Washington, DC could again see the temperature reach or even exceed 100° in some locations. Afterward, the excessive heat will ease, but warmer than normal conditions will persist.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was -1.79.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.103.

On July 18, the MJO was in Phase 1at an amplitude of 1.231 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.073.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 49 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5°.

Finally, on July 18, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.551 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was the lowest figure on record for July 18. The previous record was 7.059 million square kilometers, which was set in 2011.

 

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lee59

lee59

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

70° minimums have been more impressive than 90° maximums at JFK since the record dew point surge began with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

A9FCE842-F249-4935-B7AF-6C9A928C8FF8.png.96382f1f5827558cc056dec94f388eb4.png

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
1 2016 55 0
2 2015 53 0
3 2010 51 0
4 2018 49 0
5 2012 48 0
- 1983 48 0
6 1980 47 0
- 1971 47 0
7 1984 46 0
8 2013 44 0
- 1999 44 0
9 2005 40 0
- 1995 40 0
- 1981 40 0
- 1970 40 0
10 2011 39 0
- 1969 39 0
11 2019 38 0
- 1961 38 0
Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 32 0
2 1983 26 0
3 2002 21 0
4 1971 18 0
5 2005 17 0
- 1991 17 0
6 2012 16 0
7 2016 15 0
- 1995 15 0
- 1961 15 0
8 1999 14 0
- 1988 14 0
- 1966 14 0
9 2011 13 0
- 1993 13 0
- 1984 13 0
- 1977 13 0
- 1970 13 0
- 1969 13 0
- 1963 13 0
10 2015 12 0
- 2006 12 0
- 2003 12 0
- 1978 12 0
- 1968 12 0

It may not affect JFK as much but as NYC keeps growing with bigger and higher skyscrapers, I'm sure the maximum night temperatures will be higher. Heat island affect is so prevalent on nights like tonight.

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