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geddyweather

June 10 Severe Threat

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Surprised there isn't more chatter about tomorrow, though it "technically" isn't associated with the Cristobal remnants. Eastern IN/western OH (especially between I-69 and I-75 give or take some miles) seems like it has a decent shot at a TOR or two before things go linear. Winds aren't as backed on soundings as I'd like to see personally, but lots of other ingredients (good CAPE, lapse rates, decent low level SRH) are present. Definitely think it is worth monitoring.

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Would anticipate tomorrow's risk area to be pulled westward on the new update... at least the marginal/slight.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would anticipate tomorrow's risk area to be pulled westward on the new update... at least the marginal/slight.

I could see the enhanced expanded south across the rest of west Ohio.

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10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

I could see the enhanced expanded south across the rest of west Ohio.

Looking a little testy for sure.

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Nearly all convection-allowing models produce helicity tracks through MI, IN, and OH tomorrow.  0-6km shear should be 40kt- 50kt throughout the region of the cold front.

Yidno4I.jpg

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4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Day 1 moderate introduced, wind driven430205320_spccoday1.categorical.latest(1).png.2e8bebacad0859862cee5761da0d49c1.png

Here's the disco.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1242 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2020  
 
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z  

 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER  
MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER MICHIGAN REGION. SEVERE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
ARE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL THREAT ARE  
ALSO POSSIBLE.  
   
..LOWER MICHIGAN/OHIO VALLEY
 
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRONG UPPER LOW  
OVER NORTHEASTERN KS, SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST IN LINE WITH  
LATE-EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT  
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED  
AS STRONGEST 500MB FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO  
THE DOWNSTREAM POSITION OVER CENTRAL IL BY 18Z, THEN SOUTHERN LOWER  
MI BY 11/00Z. AT 0530Z, REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL ARE LIFTING QUICKLY  
NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND IT APPEARS THE WAVELENGTH  
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER  
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS IN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER  
MI BY 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  
INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING  
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THIS REGION ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THERE  
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE  
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 18-20Z. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS  
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, IT APPEARS A MIXED STORM MODE WILL EVOLVE  
WITH SUPERCELLS, SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS, AND CLUSTERS ULTIMATELY  
MATURING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES 12HR  
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 120-150M WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION  
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE AN UPWARD-EVOLVING  
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR. MEAN STORM MOTIONS AROUND 45KT ARE  
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE MLCAPE (2000  
J/KG) WILL ENSURE ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED  
WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD SEVERE,  
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH LINE SEGMENTS. SOME  
TORNADO THREAT ALSO WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  
 
FARTHER EAST, STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL  
AID SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD  
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE STRONGLY FORCED, BUT  
ADEQUATELY SHEARED FOR AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL.  
 
..DARROW/NAUSLAR.. 06/10/2020  

 

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huh yeah this is kinda coming out of nowhere. i was looking at soundings 12 hours ago and thought to myself just maybe. now its coming into fruition. kinda intriguing how its suddenly transpiring like this. the soundings for my area look pretty gnarly for the 8pm time slot. right in prime time. cant show the soundings but heres the link. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sblcl&rh=2020061000&fh=24&r=conus&lon=-83.38&lat=42.28&metar=&st=619c2178a9c0064e747d5e43a6a64e26

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As mentioned in the other thread, this is definitely one of the best setups the Metro Detroit area has seen in a long time

*Steep mid-level lapse rates

*Negative-tilt trough

*Strong tropical moisture advection (via. Cristobal remnants)

*Perfect timing (peak heating)

*Good chance of clear morning skies / no morning convection

The only thing that looks somewhat questionable is the shear (which looks to be undirectional).

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Model dewpoints continuing to look worse than yesterday. RAP shows a decent clearing for eastern Michigan by about 14z. If this verifies should be a good wind event.

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Gonna be another couple rounds in Chicago today the way it looks, in addition to the pre-dawn activity. That line in central IL was fairly poorly modeled and may be the precursor to the main show in IN/MI/OH later. I'd watch the outflow boundary just S/E of Chicago into SW MI for possible spinups.

Plenty of heating for the upper low and jet streak to produce a developing arc midday that will rotate into WI and train on the southeastern third of the Badger State.

1623414716_ScreenShot2020-06-10at7_37_54AM.thumb.png.93898f9617663a49b0031bc0131a6362.png

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I know the winds aren't as backed as would be preferred, but the speed shear is very high. I think there is not only a tornado potential, but strong tornado potential today for the MichIndOh area. Just plenty of moisture (dew is 74 in Toledo), winds aloft, and instability to fuel these storms. 

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boom

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
814 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Will County in northeastern Illinois...
  Kankakee County in northeastern Illinois...
  Southeastern Cook County in northeastern Illinois...
  Northern Lake County in northwestern Indiana...

* Until 930 AM CDT.

* At 813 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles west of Peotone to near Chebanse, moving
  northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chicago, Hammond, Gary, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Calumet
  City, Merrillville, Chicago Heights, East Chicago, Schererville,
  Hobart, Lansing, Kankakee, New Lenox, Highland, Blue Island,
  Munster, Dolton and Park Forest.


 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
 

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If the tornado threat was slightly lower this would be a case where a PDS SVR watch would get issued. It would still be entirely possible given current circumstances, however.

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Hi all,

Been an infrequent poster here. Finally just finished my long journey of earning my B.S. and M.S. in meteorology and getting a job in the field! Looking forward to trying to post here more, as I will be starting work remotely here in Cleveland for my new job through what looks to be most of the summer.

As for today's event, certainly looks to be one of the most significant days I've tracked here in my relatively short history of following the local weather. I will be heading out to Delta, OH to meet a friend after work to try chasing before the main show arrives. Will see if the cells can stay discrete ahead of the line. If they do, the ingredients are certainly there for short lived tornados to form. As most are thinking though, this should primarily be a high wind threat kind of day for the majority of those in the SPC moderate and enhanced regions.

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1 minute ago, amt5626 said:

Hi all,

Been an infrequent poster here. Finally just finished my long journey of earning my B.S. and M.S. in meteorology and getting a job in the field! Looking forward to trying to post here more, as I will be starting work remotely here in Cleveland for my new job through what looks to be most of the summer.

As for today's event, certainly looks to be one of the most significant days I've tracked here in my relatively short history of following the local weather. I will be heading out to Delta, OH to meet a friend after work to try chasing before the main show arrives. Will see if the cells can stay discrete ahead of the line. If they do, the ingredients are certainly there for short lived tornados to form. As most are thinking though, this should primarily be a high wind threat kind of day for the majority of those in the SPC moderate and enhanced regions.

Congrats on the degree! Days like this I wish I were back in NW Ohio, perfect chase territory. I do think the tornado potential is being underplayed a bit, but we will see how high helicity climbs. Often in these extremely dynamic setups it seems we begin by hyping up the wind chances, and then it materializes into a solid tornado event. Reminds me of June 5-6, 2010 honestly, which was hyped up originally as quick transition to a bow echo that was supposed to roll through. In fact many of the MCD's were about the issuance of a T-Storm Watch.

Yet as the storms approached they never really lined up, and we were left with a prolific tornado outbreak. While the low pressure is a bit more removed from the area (center over Lake Superior) I do think the amount of moisture and speed shear will add up to a solid tornado event for both OH and MI here today. 

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image.png.fc6bd1962ae9c3bcb85bc4d944e8c652.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0895
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0844 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...northern IN...southwest and western Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 101344Z - 101515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify this morning and likely
   require a severe thunderstorm watch issuance by 11am-12pm EDT.  Max
   thunderstorm gust potential will initially range 45-60 mph but
   strengthen into the 50-70 mph range towards midday as both the
   magnitude/coverage of damaging gusts increases.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing band of storms from
   east-central IL to the Chicago south side with another cluster of
   storms developing over northwest IN expected to move into southwest
   Lower MI during the next 1-2 hours.  Visible-satellite imagery shows
   cloud streets across northern IN into southern Lower MI, indicative
   of a very moist boundary layer.  Specifically regarding moisture,
   the 6am EDT Detroit, MI observed sounding showed a 16.3 g/kg lowest
   100mb mean mixing ratio, a climatological maximum through June 15th
   during the period of record (since 1949).  

   Pockets of strong heating per cloud breaks will contribute to a
   moderately unstable airmass by mid-late morning with little to any
   remaining convective inhibition as temperatures warm into the
   low-mid 80s.  KIWX and KGRR show 30-40 kt in the 1-2 km AGL layer
   with 50 kt around 3km AGL at KGRR.  As the mid-level migratory
   shortwave trough approaches the Great Lakes from MO today,
   additional storm development/strengthening is expected.  As a
   result, damaging gusts will become more common as bands of storms
   intensify through the late morning and into the early afternoon.  A
   tornado or two cannot be ruled out given the moist boundary layer
   and adequate speed shear in the lowest 1-2 km, but the general
   unidirectional southerly wind profile will tend to favor damaging
   gusts as the primary severe hazard.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41798743 43518643 43958519 43588442 42868424 41178513
               40788600 40858719 41798743 
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Incredible wind and rain with the storm in NW IN. Also quarter sized hail. Branches down outside my office window.

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6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

hoosier getting the goods now

 

Blasted here.  Definitely severe criteria.  

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im hoping this spell breaks. i know soundings last night indicated a pretty good tor chance due to speed shear. went from showing pds tor now to just tor. gonna be a fun day i cant remember the last time we have had this kind of threat. and im surprised stuff already initiated so early west of here. should be a good sign i just hope a line dont go thru too early in the day

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Down in our area, the NAM insists on a linear threat, while several runs of the HRRR wants to spit out some discrete cells forming around FWA and moving into Northwest Ohio before going linear around TOL. It will be interesting to see what verifies.

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Based on reports/pics, it looks like the absolute worst may have gone like a half mile to mile to my west.

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27 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Down in our area, the NAM insists on a linear threat, while several runs of the HRRR wants to spit out some discrete cells forming around FWA and moving into Northwest Ohio before going linear around TOL. It will be interesting to see what verifies.

Indeed. The HRRR seems like it has had that tendency all year, with mixed results. Wind profiles seem rather uni-directional but there is some backing near the surface, so I'm wondering if maybe a hybrid of the two (think QLCS type event) may end up being what we see? It'll be interesting, for sure.

85/76 here in Columbus Grove (north of Lima, OH), southwesterlies have been rolling all morning. SPC just hoisted an MD for IN/OH with 95% chance of a SVR watch being hoisted.  

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mcd0896.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0896
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...southern through northeast IN...west-central and
   northwest OH...southern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 101522Z - 101645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely initiate along the surface
   trough over southwest and west-central IN prior to 12pm EDT.  Storms
   will develop/intensify as they move northeast during the early
   afternoon as they organize into clusters/bands of storms.  Damaging
   gusts primarily in the 55-75 mph range are expected.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus from
   near Evansville north to Greencastle, IN along the wind shift
   boundary.  Surface observations over IN have warmed into the mid 80s
   with dewpoints generally in the 73-74 deg F range (per reliable ASOS
   compared to AWOS showing artificially too high dewpoints 77-79 deg
   F).  These surface conditions input into the 8am EDT Wilmington, OH
   observed sounding, are yielding around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE.  KIND VAD
   shows around 50-55 kt in the 2-3 km AGL layer.  Once storms develop
   and mature, water-loading and momentum transfer will favor damaging
   gusts with maximum wind speeds generally in the 55-75 mph range with
   the stronger downdrafts.  The greatest coverage of severe gusts will
   likely focus in eastern IN/western OH where peak storm maturity, in
   the form of small bowing segments/cluster, is expected this
   afternoon.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   38858725 40608648 42108519 42218432 41808384 41348384
               38928550 38578601 38668679 38858725 

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