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geddyweather

June 10 Severe Threat

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i was outside drinking my coffee and as of 1130 the low level clouds here are breaking up. lots of sun starting to poke thru. i see a line starting to form sw of indianapolis. i wonder if thats the start of the main line that will blow thru northern ohio and southeast michigan later on today.

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NWS GRR warning for Van Buren, Allegan, and Ottawa Counties mentions 85 mph winds.

 

Quote

744 
WWUS53 KGRR 101532
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1132 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

MIC005-139-159-101645-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200610T1645Z/
Allegan MI-Van Buren MI-Ottawa MI-
1132 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM EDT
FOR ALLEGAN...NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...

At 1132 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles west of Holland SP to near Saugatuck to near
Fennville to 8 miles northeast of South Haven, moving northeast at 65
mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...85 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses 
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect 
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Holland...             Grand Haven...         Allegan...
South Haven...         Hudsonville...         Zeeland...
Coopersville...        Ferrysburg...          Spring Lake...
Bangor...              Fennville...           Saugatuck...
Beechwood...           Jenison...             Van Buren SP...
Allendale...           Dorr...                Covert...
Ganges...              Conklin...             

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4246 8625 4270 8620 4298 8622 4312 8627
      4312 8591 4320 8591 4320 8579 4277 8578
      4277 8564 4223 8606 4225 8635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 225DEG 57KT 4281 8632 4271 8618 4262 8613 4247
8614

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...85MPH
 
$$

DUKE


======================================================================

951 
WUUS53 KGRR 101512
SVRGRR
MIC005-139-159-101645-
/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0033.200610T1512Z-200610T1645Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1112 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Allegan County in southwestern Michigan...
  Northwestern Van Buren County in southwestern Michigan...
  Ottawa County in southwestern Michigan...

* Until 1245 PM EDT.

* At 1112 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles 
  northwest of South Haven, moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Holland...             Grand Haven...         Allegan...
  South Haven...         Hudsonville...         Zeeland...
  Coopersville...        Ferrysburg...          Spring Lake...
  Bangor...              Fennville...           Saugatuck...
  Beechwood...           Jenison...             Van Buren SP...
  Allendale...           Dorr...                Covert...
  Ganges...              Conklin...             

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4246 8625 4270 8620 4298 8622 4312 8627
      4312 8591 4320 8591 4320 8579 4277 8578
      4277 8564 4223 8606 4225 8635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1511Z 220DEG 51KT 4249 8649 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CAS


 

 

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holy shit 85 mph winds out west? if thats not a potential sign of things to come idk what is. im curious to see what the nam and hrrr say here in another couple hours. i hope a line don't form too early and use up the available energy

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DTX update...

 

000
FXUS63 KDTX 101559 CCA
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected author
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac
MI 1144 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.UPDATE...

Southwest flow already gusting up to 25-30 kts accompanied by CWA-
wide dewpoints firmly in the 72-74 range by 15z this morning. 12z DTX
sounding indicated 1200 j/kg MLCAPE with a pronounced H7 cap beneath
the resident shortwave ridge axis. Mean lapse rates from the cap to
the EL, which resides around 36kft, averaging a pedestrian but still
adequate 6C/KM or slightly better. Gravity waves within the
disspating morning stratocu field over eastern areas indicative of
the last vestigates of the nocturnal inversion while an increasingly
agitated cu field has begun taking shape to the south and southwest.
Convection remains unlikely in the very near term as capping will
persist until the coincident arrival of cooler temperatures
associated with increasing mid-level height falls and greater deep
layer moisture over over northern Indiana around 17z, at which time
data from a 17z special release will be incoming.

Momentum fields will ramp up considerably in the 18-00z time frame
as the shortwave over northeast Missouri acquires a shaprly negative
tilt and lifts toward Lower MI. Superposition of strong dynamic
forcing (especially south), the strengthening deep layer wind field,
and MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 j/kg will anchor a widespread
severe thunderstorm threat with evolution toward a high end threat
with time and especially with eastward extent. Convective mode will
be largely modulated by SSW bulk shear increasing from 35kts early
this afternoon to 50kts or greater over the eastern half of the CWA
during the peak of the event. SSW shear certainly supportive of a
few supercells especially over central/eastern zones (i.e. away from
the impinging cold front). Otherwise, convection is expected to
organize into linear/bowing structures supported by strong/deep rear
inflow. Regardless of convective mode, ample dry air noted on the
morning sounding and vigorous updraft intensity will support
strong/significant downbursts. Any supercells will also pose a
marginal hail threat, any greater potential likely limited by the
overall warm thermal profile. Strongly veered SSW wind proifle
suggests extremely limited availability of streamwise vorticity to
existing supercells as confirmed by paltry 0-0.5 SRH of 50-100
m2/s2. In any case, the greatest tornado threat will most likely
occur with localized bottom-up type development (i.e. apex of bows,
etc) rather than with supercells.
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GRR update...

000
FXUS63 KGRR 101511
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1111 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

The thunderstorms are moving across the I-94 area, west of Jackson as I write this. The storms will continue to develop into a solid line of storms that will reach the eastern sections by mid afternoon. Strong winds are the greatest threat with these storms. There is strong low level moisture transport, focused on the I-69 area early this afternoon. the low level jet axis by mid afternoon will be just east of US-131 and there will be speed convergence as the core of the low level jet at 4 pm will be south of our CWA. Add to that a strong upper jet crossing the area with unusually strong upper level wave, it`s clear there is a significant severe storm threat today.

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1 hour ago, Solidsting said:

im hoping this spell breaks. i know soundings last night indicated a pretty good tor chance due to speed shear. went from showing pds tor now to just tor. gonna be a fun day i cant remember the last time we have had this kind of threat. and im surprised stuff already initiated so early west of here. should be a good sign i just hope a line dont go thru too early in the day

We've had some early season PDS Watches totally fail over SWMI in the last decade. Even 11-17-13 didn't get the tor's up into MI as was expected. The Tor Watch in May of 2011 which produced the large rotation and tor-like damage swath is the worst I can remember locally. We are kinda overdue tbh. OH had that surprise outbreak back in Aug of '16 or '17, and the after dark EF4 on the NW side of Toledo back in June of 2010 also caused a warning here due to a very brief funnel west of here that took the roof off a church bldg. Way back 100 or more years ago, Marshall took a direct hit from a twister and the city hall bell was later found some miles from it's original location. The bell is now a memorial piece with a history plaque in front our current city hall. Stay safe all you Michiganders!

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IWX update...

000
FXUS63 KIWX 101534
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1134 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
Continued strong confidence in multiple severe weather events,
especially eastern half of CWA this afternoon. Area of concern
developing on leading edge of dryline advancing eastward into
southwest Indiana/KEVV vicinity. Hi-res satellite data showing
rapid transition to convective streets and sheared towering
cumulus field. As this embedded mesoscale vorticity lifts north-
northeast. Effective shear, with speed shear largely attributing,
to 50-55 knots over northern Indiana coincident with moderate to
strong unstable airmass. Pockets of heating with surface
temperatures into middle 80s and dewpoints in middle 70s with
3000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE early this afternoon will continue to
provide upscale growth of linear segments, potential LEWP with an
embedded tornado, though by far the greatest risk is for
widespread damaging wind gusts, significant tree and possible
structural damage in isolated areas.

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mcd0897.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0897
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...parts of central and northern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 101617Z - 101715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe-wind bowing segment near Grand Rapids is
   projected to move into northern Lower MI and beyond severe
   thunderstorm watch 274 by 130pm EDT.  A new severe thunderstorm
   watch will be needed from near Saginaw Bay northward encompassing
   much of northern Lower MI.  A severe thunderstorm watch will also be
   needed for southeast Lower MI and may be issued in coordination with
   the Alpena and Detroit NWS Forecast Offices.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KGRR shows a severe bowing segment
   moving northeast at 60 mph.  The Holland, MI ASOS (KBIV) observed a
   63 kt gust at 1145am EDT with passage of this bow.  The bowing
   segment and a cluster farther east near Lansing are projected to
   move east/north of the severe thunderstorm watch 274 by 130pm EDT. 
   The airmass downstream of these storms over central and northern
   Lower MI has destabilized with surface temperatures in the upper 80s
   with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s deg F.  RAP forecast
   soundings show 2000-2500 J/kg with 45 kt effective shear.  The
   near-storm environment will continue to favor severe clusters
   capable of damaging gusts (55-75 mph), which will result in swaths
   of scattered to widespread wind damage.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42818406 44028464 44198604 45348511 45688431 45678320
               44888253 42818406 

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14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

We've had some early season PDS Watches totally fail over SWMI in the last decade. Even 11-17-13 didn't get the tor's up into MI as was expected. The Tor Watch in May of 2011 which produced the large rotation and tor-like damage swath is the worst I can remember locally. We are kinda overdue tbh. OH had that surprise outbreak back in Aug of '16 or '17, and the after dark EF4 on the NW side of Toledo back in June of 2010 also caused a warning here due to a very brief funnel west of here that took the roof off a church bldg. Way back 100 or more years ago, Marshall took a direct hit from a twister and the city hall bell was later found some miles from it's original location. The bell is now a memorial piece with a history plaque in front our current city hall. Stay safe all you Michiganders!

yeah i remember the one in toledo, that was a good weather day but sad a strong tornado hit structures. yeah your right we have had some pds be complete flukes. im just hoping the cap stays till 3pm so it gives the best chance of strong storms in SELM. if things get spicy i might go out and do some chasing myself later

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Guys the helicity is not bad at all ahead of those storms firing in Indiana. Definitely going to be something to watch here as it approaches the border

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Not much change with the 1630z D1. 30% hatched wind got extended south to between Cincy and Dayton. Lots of development underway in Central Indiana.

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1 hour ago, geddyweather said:

Indeed. The HRRR seems like it has had that tendency all year, with mixed results. Wind profiles seem rather uni-directional but there is some backing near the surface, so I'm wondering if maybe a hybrid of the two (think QLCS type event) may end up being what we see? It'll be interesting, for sure.

85/76 here in Columbus Grove (north of Lima, OH), southwesterlies have been rolling all morning. SPC just hoisted an MD for IN/OH with 95% chance of a SVR watch being hoisted.  

Yep.QLCS is looking likely. The storms near Bunker HIll and Russiaville in IN are already starting to spin. I may not be back on here for awhile. Getting ready to head out.

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mcd0899.gif

   Mesoscale Discussion 0899
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...western and central Ohio into northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101758Z - 101930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW275 will
   likely be issued within the next hour. Severe thunderstorms capable
   of damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two
   will be likely through this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms over central Indiana has
   produced several reports of damaging winds over the last few hours.
   These storms are ongoing in a very moist environment (surface
   dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F) ahead of a pressure trough/wind
   shift emanating from a 983 mb cyclone over southern Ontario.
   1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 35-45 kt of effective shear as sampled
   by SPC mesoanalysis will support robust organized updrafts in the
   form of small bowing segments and supercells. Damaging winds will
   primarily be the main threat with the increase in storm coverage and
   interactions favoring strong downdrafts. However, the magnitude of
   instability/buoyancy will support some risk for isolated large hail
   with the strongest updrafts. Hodographs are expected to be
   relatively long but low-level flow is expected veer with time
   supporting the threat for one or two tornadoes given 0-1 km shear of
   15-20 kt. A new Severe thunderstorm Watch will be needed within the
   next hour.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   38588362 38398438 38378477 38618517 39278531 40988426
               41588381 41648364 41568290 41628214 41738178 41818152
               41758140 39808209 39468230 38828298 38588362 

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If RadarScope is correct all of those storms close to the IWX radar are packing 70-95 mph winds. Almost got a dang Cat 2 Hurricane in these things right now basically.

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3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

If RadarScope is correct all of those storms close to the IWX radar are packing 70-95 mph winds. Almost got a dang Cat 2 Hurricane in these things right now basically.

This storm was warned for 80 MPH winds and even that might have been understated. 

 

On a related note, do I need to update my Radarscope membership to see the actual max on velocity scans or is it a setting? 

Polish_20200610_141346862.png

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5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This storm was warned for 80 MPH winds and even that might have been understated. 

 

On a related note, do I need to update my Radarscope membership to see the actual max on velocity scans or is it a setting? 

Polish_20200610_141346862.png

You might. It's the inspector tool that actually shows true windspeeds and dBZ

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Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
116 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW ASHLEY            43.20N 84.56W
06/10/2020                   GRATIOT            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEMI TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON US 127 NEAR M-57.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

 

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55 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Currently 84/90/73 per the airport unit. Just took my ride down to the public garage in town just in case a hailer does show up

Glad I did. 1" dia hail to my west in BC area.

Yikes..cell warned south of me in NIN:

HAIL...1.25IN

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35 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Kinda surprised it won't be a tornado watch.

Likewise if it’s following development like HRRR these would be more discrete 

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Warning for 85 mph for Calhoun & Jackson Counties in Michigan

Quote

773 
WWUS53 KGRR 101843
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
243 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

MIC025-075-101930-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-200610T1930Z/
Calhoun MI-Jackson MI-
243 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR CALHOUN AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 242 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Marshall,
moving northeast at 65 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...85 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses 
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect 
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Albion...              Marshall...            Battle Creek...
Homer...               Union City...          Burlington...
Brownlee Park...       Marengo...             Concord...
Athens...              Springport...          Parma...
Tekonsha...            Tompkins...            Ceresco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4220 8520 4242 8513 4242 8447 4207 8471
      4207 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 207DEG 58KT 4220 8497 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...85MPH
 
$$

DUKE

 

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