amt5626

Holding out hope out here near Toledo. I really like what the GFS is showing last couple runs. Euro probably too strong with the low. Will be interesting to see the 12z EPS. I was surprised to see the Euro double down at 12z. This winter has been pretty boring so far, but I am at least thankful to be tracking again. It's so hard to get the right track with enough cold air in place. At least the lake effect should be great on the backend of the storm for those in the snow belt.

Liking where I'm at in Perrysburg for the mid-week storm. Feel comfortable saying we get 5-8" here. Seems like good consensus on timing in the guidance. Amounts a bit more variable but seems good enough for WSWs to eventually go out.

Can't say an Enhanced Outlook over Ohio was on my Winter Bingo Card this season.

Eh, it's time to give up on winter and move on to the start of severe weather season tomorrow.

Thinking I ride this out in Toledo tonight. Might head back to CLE if it looks like best parameters favor a bit further east. First real severe threat I've been in for quite some time. Storms over Indiana now. CAMs failed there in the short range.

I would just head that way to visit my parents if the trends continue, but my roommate tested positive for Covid yesterday. So out of caution will be staying in Toledo for a bit. I have a hard time believing the super far south solutions. We can afford a bit more eastern movement/pressing of the high before we start to lose out on the second round Thursday. Seems to be a case of Euro/CMC vs. GFS/NAM/UK. Either way, still going to get WSW criteria snows it looks like.

Back at my apartment in Toledo for this one. Should be a great event here. Depending on how Thursday's snow shapes up, could be really something special. 12" looks to be a lock for now.

HRRR completely missing the band over us right now. With that said, it still manages to give decent snows up this way. Feeling pretty good!!

Love to see the HREF giving 6+ here. Feeling comfortable for a solid 6-8". And too funny that you used to be in HKT! I plan on moving out that way sometime in the spring/summer to start more of a hybrid work environment. Will miss the virtual work and Ohio life some, but always open to new exploring new places.

Greetings everyone. Haven't posted in some time due to a combination of starting a new job in the Fall working as the lead meteorologist for Mars Inc. (a very sweet job you could say), as well as there not being too much local weather to talk about so far this winter. It finally looks like there is some excitement going around in the sub leading up to this storm. No matter what happens, definitely happy to at least be able to track something again. With that said, 18z Euro looks great for us with over an inch of QPF for downtown CLE, but I am still concerned that we will be just a touch too far west here in Cuyahoga county. Nonetheless, I do think at least Winter Weather Advisories are now needed here based on all the guidance I've seen today. I would argue winter storm warnings may be in order too. But there is time to see what the 0z guidance shows tonight. Would want headlines out by tomorrow afternoon before the snow starts falling. Hoping everyone is able to cash in with this storm. Worried that once we get to February, assuming dynamical models are to be trusted and La Nina continues to dominate, we may torch rest of met winter. Was surprised by the icy roads last night. Saw a tow truck sliding backwards down a hill on the way back home from the gym. Yikes!

NWS CLE sitting nicely at 0 SVR/TOR warnings this year so far with no sign of any major storm threats through the end of next week. This has honestly been one of the least exciting stretches of spring I can recall. At least it is finally starting to warm up to more seasonable levels.

NWS point forecast has me at 3–5". Really impressive if we hit toward the upper end of that. But I want no part in any of this late season snow. So long as those Alaskan and Greenland ridges remain through the rest of month, there won't be any major warmups. Things look to turn warm again as we head into the first week of May as both those features give way. I feel pretty confident that this should be our last accumulating snow and most likely the last flakes of the year for most/all here in N OH.

Recently got an apartment over in Perrysburg, OH to complete the rest of the "work from home" phase this year while living with one of my old high school friends. Seems like this storm trended a bit NW here to follow me back west . Feeling pretty good about 10–12" here across much of NW Ohio. Will easily be some local totals over a foot. Excited to see how the ratios pan out. Only 16° at TDZ right now, 20 at CLE. I wouldn't be worried about the HRRR showing mixing that far north back in NE Ohio.

I am beyond thankful for our two big December storms. This current system was never promising, but I'll admit I spent a fair amount of time tracking it (not much else to track this past month). I much prefer warmth over cold to be honest, and am always anxious for hints of spring weather by the time mid-to-late February arrives. However, this looks to be my last year up north before moving to Atlanta early next year (was going to do that last year but decided to wait until Covid settled down). I had actually already said "goodbye" to winter as I knew it last year when I spent what I thought was my last full cold season experience in Albany, NY, where I was finishing up my M.S. degree requirements/thesis. We only received one noteworthy storm that year (recorded just under 2' over a couple days to start off December; the snow intensity over the entire duration was remarkable). Found it rather funny they ended up beating that storm's total in less than a day this winter. If the December storms are all we get, I'll liken them to my final storm in Albany in that I'll have great, last winter memories of living full time up north for the foreseeable future.

I've enjoyed the light coating of snow that has managed to stick around the last few days. I am not surprised at all with how the early week system trended (north, warm, and dry) and with how the following storm is going to pan out (sheared out and south). Things are likely to continue looking not good as we head deeper into February and the SE ridge eventually sets into place. CPC favors warmth for the entire Midwest and East during the 6–10 and 10–14 day periods, and I would have to agree with that at this point. Euro weeklies also show these warm anomalies for the next few weeks. With Lake Erie still being mostly ice free, I could see a decent lake effect event for the secondary snow belt at some point before winter "ends," but I am starting to think we used up all our winter magic last month. It really is a shame that with so much blocking, the Pacific side continues to fail to cooperate. Recent GEFS runs paint the picture for what the remainder of meteorological winter may look like.

Flipped to all snow here in Strongsville. Already accumulating in the mulch and on the cars. Temp got down to 29 before rain switched to a brief mix. All surfaces are quite icy out there. Looking at about 6–8" here. Excited for the first white Christmas in white seems like forever.

I was at around 15" at 6 pm. Had about 4.5" fall between noon and 6 pm. Definitely one of the best events of my 15 years of tracking weather here.

Measured about 11" at noon. Surely over a foot now. With those lake bands dropping south, could even tack on another couple or few inches. Branches are really weighed down. Surprised we have not lost power. 20201201.heic

Finally changed over to all snow in Strongsville. Snow accumulating on all surfaces here including the roads. Looks like places north and east closer to downtown and the coast are still struggling to fully change over.

Still awaiting any change over to the frozen stuff here in N OH. That is expected to commence around sunset and be completely snow by 10 pm. Freezing layer appears to be just above the surface now with lowest correlation coefficients coinciding with a radar beam height of ~400 feet. it was up at around 1000 feet earlier today, so we are making progress.

0z NAM looks like a great run for N OH and the CLE suburbs. The surface low comes in notably stronger and hangs around a bit longer over Lake Ontario. Wind speeds over the lake seem optimal (~15 knots) for lake enhancement during the NW flow regime Monday night into Tuesday. 0-1 km shear should stay fairly unidirectional then. Getting excited here to kick off meteorological winter with a solid storm. Hoping the Nina pattern allows for more of these kind of interior low tracks through DJF. Worried things get too warm though majority of the time, especially after December.

Glad to be tracking winter storms again after what felt like an endless spring, summer, and fall. This upcoming system could be pretty interesting if some of the recent GFS solutions pan out. Our southern stream of energy is already over Arizona and should be fairly well sampled at this point. The northern stream has yet to come inland over British Columbia but should do so later tonight. I expect things will be much clearer after seeing all of tomorrow's model runs with that piece better sampled. That said, the GFS has been trending toward the southern stream outrunning the northern stream, thus leading to a less potent, warmer, and quicker system over the last couple model cycles. Very small details in this interaction change everything for us, as is always the case with this kind of setup so early in the season. We will still see backend snow with lake enhancement, but I am increasingly doubtful of any of the major impact solutions we have been seeing. Hopefully can at least get moderate accumulations. My Siberian puppy was in heaven playing in the last bit of snow we received. He would not come back inside the house .

Hi all, Been an infrequent poster here. Finally just finished my long journey of earning my B.S. and M.S. in meteorology and getting a job in the field! Looking forward to trying to post here more, as I will be starting work remotely here in Cleveland for my new job through what looks to be most of the summer. As for today's event, certainly looks to be one of the most significant days I've tracked here in my relatively short history of following the local weather. I will be heading out to Delta, OH to meet a friend after work to try chasing before the main show arrives. Will see if the cells can stay discrete ahead of the line. If they do, the ingredients are certainly there for short lived tornados to form. As most are thinking though, this should primarily be a high wind threat kind of day for the majority of those in the SPC moderate and enhanced regions.

For anyone still up... the deformation band is about to deliver big time.

I have about 7.5-8 inches in the grass right now. So storm total around 6-6.5 at the moment. It's really dumping right now, and wind continues to pick up. Level 3 snow emergency out in Huron, Erie, and Ottowa counties. Incredible! Hopefully everyone is staying indoors.