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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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I took these while working recovery in the Pan Handle; we were setting up in the Mexico Beach Public Works yard, 3 blocks from the beach and the water line was 7ft in their garage bays.

0EDCB825-C647-42DE-ADA0-675EEBE7474C.jpeg

C2355ADF-6350-48B2-B487-3A63A0106479.jpeg

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7:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.4°N 92.9°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
 

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

7:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.4°N 92.9°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
 

Cat 5 at landfall may be probability and not a possibility 

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Just now, MarkO said:

Cat 5 at landfall may be a probably and not a possibility 

Whether it gets labeled a Cat 5 or not, One would assume its going to be at a 5 by landfall.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Whether it gets labeled a Cat 5 or not, One would assume its going to be at a 5 by landfall.

Won't matter now, surge is set

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Won't matter now, surge is set

6 mph more wont matter, This is as bad as it can get.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Whether it gets labeled a Cat 5 or not, One would assume its going to be at a 5 by landfall.

Candidate for reanalysis upgrade ex post facto at the very least.

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This rapid intensification makes sense. Good outflow, low shear, decent forward motion and very warm SST's (Harvey mentioned 85F). Even if it's churning up, it's still much warmer than other tropical areas. That shelf is only a couple hundred feet deep. Storm surge is going to go way the hell inland. 25-30 miles.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Won't matter now, surge is set

This is probably the most important point. 

It's probably going to need to do it soon if it's going to reach Cat 5, because the deep core convection is starting to interact with land and shear is increasing on the west side. They've got flights in there until landfall though, so we should know with a fair amount of certainty if it does or not.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is probably the most important point. 

It's probably going to need to do it soon if it's going to reach Cat 5, because the deep core convection is starting to interact with land and shear is increasing on the west side. They've got flights in there until landfall though, so we should know with a fair amount of certainty if it does or not.

 

20200826_201830.jpg

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No thanks.

KLCH 270653Z AUTO 11085G115KT 1/4SM FG VV006 25/ A2831 RMK AO2 PK WND
 100116/0642 RAEMM PRESFR SLP594 P0013 T0250 PWINO $=

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No thanks.

KLCH 270653Z AUTO 11085G115KT 1/4SM FG VV006 25/ A2831 RMK AO2 PK WND
 100116/0642 RAEMM PRESFR SLP594 P0013 T0250 PWINO $=

crave

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23 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

In fairness, the "unsurvivable" is coming directly from the NHC. You can argue whether that's hype or not, but it's not the result of media blowing it out of proportion. 

I would say it's a pretty small list of NWS offices this vulnerable to storm surge. 

Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll.  This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds.

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4 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll.  This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds.

Meh, let's let the verification process play out before it's called a total bust. 15 foot surge a few miles west indeed may have been an entirely different story and death toll, but it looks like it largely hit unpopulated swamp evolved to absorb that kind of surge. But that type of storm surge is indeed nearly impossible to ride out. I'm really not bent out of shape about the wording, I have more issues with how we do surge forecasting.

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13 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Doesn't matter where the word came from, but the fact that it came from a weather office makes it worse. Saying something is "unsurvviable " is dishonest, over the top and indeed hyperbole. ...Unless I misread the death toll.  This is the kind of language Kevin would use (In jest), and people here would be ripping him to shreds.

There was a 17' storm surge recorded to the east. Lake Charles is very lucky. The wording was appropriate. 

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

If only the 6z GFS went out another 24 hours!  :o:weenie::weenie:

With that ridge looks like New England hit, however it is in the GFS fantasy land timeline.

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