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Hoosier

May 2020 Discussion

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did something happen to tropicaltidbits?

It's weird for me because on my laptop I can initially go to the site and go to GFS but when I go to change to another model or setting I get a message saying can't reach the page. If I go on my phone and go to the site there is no problems.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Did something happen to tropicaltidbits?

Seems fine to me

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interesting storm complex over PIA

first cells moved NNW over the city and stalled just west as another armed formed SSE from it and moved NNE back over the city

 

T-storm and flash flooding warning

 

 

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ORD was up to 81 as of before 9AM, and probably was on pace for 90...but a large area of clouds has since moved in and will be around for a while. We’ll see if there’s a later day rally.

Yesterday topped out at 88 at ORD and MDW. Early and later clouds might have prevented 90 then as well.


.

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heavy rains of 1 to locally 4 inches fell between PIA north to I-80 yesterday

this has held up the fall on the IL river still at 26.9 at 7am. ...and also slowed/stall the fall at Henry

forecast for 12z Tue issued Saturday was 26.0 , issued Sunday and Monday  for 12z Tuesday was 26.4 

 

the crest was 27.9 on last Friday..record 29.4

 

with only a little rain factored in the next 24 hours ..and none of the weds-thursday rains yet The forecast for June 2nd  now is still 22.4 feet , Moderate Flood stage is 22 ft

 

that is high for going into the summer and potential MCSs moving around the ridge upstream

 

any repeats of yesterday events upstream today wont help

 

 

 

 

 

 

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the jump from winter to mid summer conditions this month has been really incredible even by our already high standards in that department

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9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

the jump from winter to mid summer conditions this month has been really incredible even by our already high standards in that department

I thought it was just me, but it really seems like we went from March to June in a week.

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7 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

I thought it was just me, but it really seems like we went from March to June in a week.

Went from turning the heat off to putting the ac on in about 10 days over here. 

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There are many ways to define "spring" and I'm not saying this is the best way.  But if you look at days with a high of 50-79 degrees between March 1 and May 25, ORD had 61 such days out of a possible 86 days.  That number surprised me as I certainly would have guessed less than that.  I don't know how that compares to average though.  We've certainly had some large ranges in temperatures this month. 

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57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There are many ways to define "spring" and I'm not saying this is the best way.  But if you look at days with a high of 50-79 degrees between March 1 and May 25, ORD had 61 such days out of a possible 86 days.  That number surprised me as I certainly would have guessed less than that.  I don't know how that compares to average though.  We've certainly had some large ranges in temperatures this month. 

My view would be that, in general, Spring is the period for which at least a certain percentage (say 70%) of observed high temps throughout the climate record on each day within the period are between 40F and 70F.  For Chicago, this would probably be March 15 to May 31?  Places in the Midwest away from the lake at a similar latitude might have a shorter Spring based on this methodology, say March 15 - May 15. 

Then, for a particular year, you could probably apply this same technique to see how much shorter or longer Spring is vs. a typical year...but of course there will inherently be more variability in one year vs. a collection of years.  An interesting statistical question.

Also, there was an interesting post on the blog linked below, trying to define seasons.  I believe it used a baseline of the warmest 90 days of the year to be summer, based on prior (cooler) normals...then looked at current (warmer) normals, and determined the new "length of summer" based on the old normals' warmest 90 days.  For Chicago, based on this methodology, summer is now 97 days.

https://us-climate.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-summer-longer.html

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It was snowing across much of the region literally 2 weeks ago. Most of us broke records with consecutive sub-freezing lows. 2 weeks later, we're all sitting in the 80s. Our climate fluctuates so much, it's hilarious. I don't know what to say anymore. 

Models show a pretty decent cool down for this weekend with expected lows in the 40's, for us in Toronto at least. That's a crazy drop in just a few days! 

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Finally got to enjoy a decent thunderstorm here. Saturday Madison was stuck under northward-moving training showers. I vacillated too long on whether or not to chase, by the time it was clear the good stuff was going to miss us to the southeast it was too late.

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ORD shows 92 again. What's with being 4-5 degrees warmer there versus neighboring sites all of a sudden? Happend the other day also.

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Might be another instance of ORD gone wild.  92 there, which is several degrees warmer than surrounding locations.

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

ORD shows 92 again. What's with being 4-5 degrees warmer there versus neighboring sites all of a sudden? Happend the other day also.

Just beat me :P

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Pretty entertaining watching all the thunderheads bubble up and build into storms the past few days.  Was actually under a severe warning a short while ago for a cluster of storms that just missed to the east. 

I caught one of them developing from birth with the gopro.  Watch to the right of the main thunderheads as it takes off in the time lapse.

 

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