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Severe Weather for 4/19-4/23

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3 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

So to sum this mess up over the last 30 minutes, I think we had a weak, unwarned tornado dissipate, then, a non-traditional occlusion of the original mesocyclone that somehow lead to additional tightening and a tornado with a straight northerly motion that went straight out of the polygon. Then, the second meso intensifies west of Chambers, drops a massive tornado, along with at least 1 anticyclonic satellite. lol

Add another one outside of the warning box.... and while your at it, draft up twins outside of the warning box. 

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Just now, MUWX said:

Add another one outside of the warning box.... and while your at it, draft up twins outside of the warning box. 

at this point, might as well carpetbomb the entire CWA... lol

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Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

at this point, might as well carpetbomb the entire CWA... lol

Hey, they got the new warning out while 1/2 of the tornadoes were still in the old warning box. This is a big win for them. 

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Just now, MUWX said:

Add another one outside of the warning box.... and while your at it, draft up twins outside of the warning box. 

Trying to warn a tornado one football field at a time is challenging.

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Aaaaand the new TOR watch goes into those same southern MS counties... 

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Louisiana
     Southern Mississippi

   * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 945 PM
     until 500 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A long-tracked supercell with a history of tornadoes will
   continue east from central Louisiana, while additional supercells
   upstream will likely grow upscale into a broadening cluster
   overnight.

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This is the most prolific long-tracking supercell I can recall in a LONG time. Closest analog I can think off the top of my head in the past couple of years was the Carbondale EF-4 supercell in 2017. 
 

I missed most of the action earlier because of work, so thanks for these threads everyone. This has been a crazy day. 

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26 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Alright. Wtf Is lake Charles doing. This is mind boggling 

For everyone ragging on LCH, I noticed some problems with warnings not displaying in RadarScope this evening. For instance, the post above questions LCH's lack of warning around 9:25 or 9:30 PM, but there was a warning issued back at 9:04 PM. I thing something screwy was happening with the warning polygons (at least in RadarScope). 

image.png.1d8af0fa80613fafb37888489e846dcb.png

 

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1 minute ago, mgerb said:

For everyone ragging on LCH, I noticed some problems with warnings not displaying in RadarScope this evening. For instance, the post above questions LCH's lack of warning around 9:25 or 9:30 PM, but there was a warning issued back at 9:04 PM. I thing something screwy was happening with the warning polygons (at least in RadarScope). 

image.png.1d8af0fa80613fafb37888489e846dcb.png

 

This could be. I hope this is the case. I only view the warnings in Radarscope 

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1 minute ago, mgerb said:

For everyone ragging on LCH, I noticed some problems with warnings not displaying in RadarScope this evening. For instance, the post above questions LCH's lack of warning around 9:25 or 9:30 PM, but there was a warning issued back at 9:04 PM. I thing something screwy was happening with the warning polygons (at least in RadarScope). 

image.png.1d8af0fa80613fafb37888489e846dcb.png

 

The one over Chambers wasn't issued until 9:28 though, and I think that's the one most people have been griping about since stuff is actually there. 

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Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

The one over Chambers wasn't issued until 9:28 though, and I think that's the one most people have been griping about since stuff is actually there. 

Gotcha. It looks like the storm was continually TOR warned since 9:04, but whether the polygons were inadequate is another issue. 

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A bit late to the game, but chased the Springer, OK tornado from start to finish today. It lasted close to 10 minutes. It was near a wooded area and I think that’s why we didn’t see a lot of streams or close footage. I had to drive a few miles east before I found an acceptable clearing. There were zero roads going north...

Quick note about streaming and bandwidth. I’ve had really bad issues with cell service lately, probably and combination of throttling and heavy usage due to the virus. Anyway, I had a “strong” signal, but had major issues with internet with this storm. Maybe it was all of the chasers around, but it was really frustrating and worse than usual during my chases in Oklahoma. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

The one over Chambers wasn't issued until 9:28 though, and I think that's the one most people have been griping about since stuff is actually there. 

 

2 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Gotcha. It looks like the storm was continually TOR warned since 9:04, but whether the polygons were inadequate is another issue. 

So, I've been following on a few devices because, if I'm going to nerd out, I'm going to go full tilt. They were delayed in issuing at least one polygon box. There WAS a warning in effect; it didn't cover the area in which the tornado WAS, at least, for a time. It could be that both the NWS site and radar scope were both wrong, but I believe that was the issue. The storm outran their warnings. 

 

9 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This is the most prolific long-tracking supercell I can recall in a LONG time. Closest analog I can think off the top of my head in the past couple of years was the Carbondale EF-4 supercell in 2017. 
 

I missed most of the action earlier because of work, so thanks for these threads everyone. This has been a crazy day. 

Yeah, it's definitely been prolific. I'm not sure it's prolific in the sense of, say, a 70 mile long EF5. It's prolific in its longevity, pure overall (not just tornadic) strength, staying discrete through that whole time, the duration of time in which is is potentially tornadic. There are many storms I can think of that are "prolific", it's all relative to your definitions. If prolific means, long lasting, yeah. 

 

To all...I've been watching the echo tops sink a bit the last half hour, from around 55-56k down to 50k. That may mean the storm is starting to outrun the area of maximal CAPE. Still a tall, strong, potentially tornadic storm, but bears watching since that will long run portend when this thing dies. Other storms will obviously be pertinent through the evening as they encounter a favorable environment....but, this storm in particular, that'll spell the end of the most serious concerns. Of course, it could do any number of things and re-cycle, it's done that a couple of times already (here, I don't mean recycling of the meso, I mean cycling of the primary updraft's inflow stream). 

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For everyone ragging on LCH, I noticed some problems with warnings not displaying in RadarScope this evening. For instance, the post above questions LCH's lack of warning around 9:25 or 9:30 PM, but there was a warning issued back at 9:04 PM. I thing something screwy was happening with the warning polygons (at least in RadarScope). 
image.png.1d8af0fa80613fafb37888489e846dcb.png
 

Pretty that specific warning involved the circulation outrunning the polygon itself that didn’t expire for another 6 minutes.

Back in Vernon Parish, KPLC was on-air and at 815pm was still wondering where the next warning was, wound up being the TOR Emergency for Ft. Polk that was stamped 815pm but actually hit at 816pm.


.

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4 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Are the storms to the west elevated? They’re looking REALLY good on velocity and structure on reflectivity. 

i was just looking at those

they seem to be crossing the warm front perhaps...but should move NE of it

if they turn more east they could stay in the higher dews longer

 

dews only around 60 just ahead of them

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9 minutes ago, mgerb said:

For everyone ragging on LCH, I noticed some problems with warnings not displaying in RadarScope this evening. For instance, the post above questions LCH's lack of warning around 9:25 or 9:30 PM, but there was a warning issued back at 9:04 PM. I thing something screwy was happening with the warning polygons (at least in RadarScope). 

I also wondered if there wasn't something screwy with radarscope so I looked elsewhere, specifically at SPC mesoanalysis, but there was no warning box there either. If there was a glitch I think it goes further than just radarscope.

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The mesocyclone exited the first Rapides Parish polygon over Woodworth at 9:21 PM CDT, picked

up a debris signature, and was not warned again until it was over Chambers at 9:28 PM CDT, seven

minutes later.  Other warnings prior were not extended until varying debris balls were about 1 or 2

minutes away from exiting polygons, hence the frustration from many folks regarding LCH.  Almost

as if they are using the original AWIPS system tonight.

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Wow, look at that storm near Jonesboro. Echo tops still collapsing on the West Concordia (aka fort polk/jasper/etc) storm. The Jonesboro one is exploding right now, 57k feet, excellent hook. In a better environment, at this point?

 

Edit: Nvm, fort polk is still collapsing, but that's a nasty circulation. Jonesboro circ is intense too, wonder if/when they'll issue for that. In the interim though clearly a near term threat on both. 

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Lake Charles is going to do it one last time. Strong Couplet about to move out of the warning box. 

 

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