Severe Weather for 4/19-4/23

[TexMexWx]

Short video but wow, this person is really close, no real condensation funnel but the damage is there occurring just down the street.

[mob1]

1 minute ago, VOLtage said:

There is a neighborhood and RV park according to Google Maps.

There are also a lot of smaller houses scattered about relatively clustered if you draw a line from the current location to just north of Rosepine. 

[Bob's Burgers]

Vrot back up to 65-68 knot range

[Bob's Burgers]

Debris ball is also re-intensifying 

[Witness Protection Program]

 

[Calderon]

It may miss all of that and hit the timber facility between Rosepine & Fort Polk, as well as a tech college.

[Snowstorm920]

Looks like a TDS again

 

[Bob's Burgers]

74 knots

[SmokeEater]

You guys really need to stop saying it's weakening, everytime someone does it goes nuts again, lol. Ridiculous couplet now.

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[Bob's Burgers]

Vrot up to 80.6 knots

[MUWX]

1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

You guys really need to stop saying it's weakening, everytime someone does it goes nuts again, lol. Ridiculous couplet now.

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My bad. It’s a cycling beast 

[Normandy]

New tri state tornado?

[SmokeEater]

My bad. It’s a cycling beast 

It's all good man, that was more so a joke.

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[Calderon]

1 minute ago, Normandy said:

New tri state tornado?

No

[SmokeEater]

Damage on Hwy 87, just across the state line into TX.

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[WestTennWX]

Really tightening up again

[1900hurricane]

 

[Amped]

2 hours ago, VOLtage said:

Tornado Warning
TXC373-455-222330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0015.200422T2245Z-200422T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Trinity County in southeastern Texas...
  Central Polk County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 545 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located near Sebastopol, or 18 miles northwest of Livingston,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Seven Oaks around 610 PM CDT.
  Corrigan around 615 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Moscow
and Leggett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Found the start of this. 2.5 hrs so far probably over 100 miles.

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Normandy said:

New tri state tornado?

Grazulis-like mastery of the historical record on display

[janetjanet998]

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
   
..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR FORT POLK  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 813 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS  
  OBSERVED NEAR ROSEPINE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR FORT POLK. THIS IS A  PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS   
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  

[SmokeEater]

This thing looks like it's JUST going to miss the Ft Polk radar to the south.

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[SmokeEater]

Tornado emergency again.

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[Calderon]

I'm growing more concerned for the main part of Fort Polk with the potential of a northward turn in the track. It's a huge base but the main complex of buildings and all is very dense.

 

[MUWX]

Debris ball going crazy. Again. 

[pbrussell]

I mean it’s not the tri state tornado... but it’s definitely a long track supercell beast.  

[SmokeEater]

My God that debris ball.

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[Moderately Unstable]

It's a cycling supercell in a good environment. I'm racking my brain thinking about what's causing the cycling instead of a sustained long tracker. The winds are backed, low level SRH is quite high, no other storms to interact with. Odd.  Whatever the damage track(s) is/are tomorrow, it will be interesting. There are no spotter reports on this since the Seven Oaks area, yet there have been multiple debris balls, and other signatures, in a good environment. We have learned so much about tornadogenesis and forecasting the last decade, to the point we can use debris heights, to estimate tornadic wind speeds. But I still don't know of any literature that would explain why this supercell is cycling so much and others just "stay down". Not complaining, this would be a heck of a damage path if it was all on the ground. Wonder if the storm base here is higher and it's therefore having more trouble sustaining tornadoes on the ground, even though, say, 1k feet up, we've got a fairly continuous funnel. But earlier videos didn't show a high cloud base so that kinda puts cold water, somewhat literally, on that theory. 

 

Edit: spotter report did just come in suggesting a tornado in Jasper, from a 911 call center. 5 E of Jasper. So, that may have been the start of that particular touchdown. There is another uncorroborated report of the tornado OG in Jasper, of unknown magnitude, also 911 call center. That may have been strong RFD that gave off the appearance of a tornado. Won't know until much, much later. Can you imagine what this would have been like were it actually on the ground for the whole distance? 

[jpeters3]

Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

It's a cycling supercell in a good environment. I'm racking my brain thinking about what's causing the cycling instead of a sustained long tracker. The winds are backed, low level SRH is quite high, no other storms to interact with. Odd.  Whatever the damage track(s) is/are tomorrow, it will be interesting. There are no spotter reports on this since the Seven Oaks area, yet there have been multiple debris balls, and other signatures, in a good environment. We have learned so much about tornadogenesis and forecasting the last decade, to the point we can use debris heights, to estimate tornadic wind speeds. But I still don't know of any literature that would explain why this supercell is cycling so much and others just "stay down". Not complaining, this would be a heck of a damage path if it was all on the ground. Wonder if the storm base here is higher and it's therefore having more trouble sustaining tornadoes on the ground, even though, say, 1k feet up, we've got a fairly continuous funnel. But earlier videos didn't show a high cloud base so that kinda puts cold water, somewhat literally, on that theory. 

 

Edit: spotter report did just come in suggesting a tornado in Jasper, from a 911 call center. 5 E of Jasper. So, that may have been the start of that particular touchdown. There is another uncorroborated report of the tornado OG in Jasper, of unknown magnitude, also 911 call center. That may have been strong RFD that gave off the appearance of a tornado. Won't know until much, much later. Can you imagine what this would have been like were it actually on the ground for the whole distance? 

I think it has been on the ground virtually the whole time.  There haven't been any moments where the meso turned left and shed into the RFD.  Obviously this isn't always how cycling happens, but the debris signature has been so consistent.

[Normandy]

I don't mean tri state intensity. Just crossing three states.  Relax yall

[the ghost of leroy]

Here comes a hard cycle. Let’s see where it reforms.