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Severe Weather for 4/19-4/23

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Just now, MUWX said:

Lake Charles is going to do it one last time. Strong Couplet about to move out of the warning box. 

 

yep.

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north storm

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1013 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN CALDWELL PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
  SOUTHERN JACKSON PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  NORTHERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 1013 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF JONESBORO, MOVING EAST AT 60  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  

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Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

This one is actually Jackson's domain. Everyone's s**ting the bed tonight!

Wait! Could it be Slidell? 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1017 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...  
  
VALID 230317Z - 230445Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL, INCLUDING THE  
THREAT OF A STRONG TORNADO, MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL LA.  
  
DISCUSSION...PAIR OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO NATCHITOCHES  
AND WINN PARISHES IN CENTRAL LA HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF BETTER  
LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH STRONGER INFLOW/OUTFLOW STRUCTURE AND A  
MORE DEFINED ZDR ARC. RECENT VAD PROFILE FROM POE SAMPLED 50 KT NEAR  
1 KM AND OVER 400 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. SOME NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION  
HAS TAKEN PLACE BUT THE VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND ALREADY MATURE  
CHARACTER OF THE STORMS SUGGEST LIMITED INFLUENCE OF THIS  
STABILIZATION THUS FAR. ALL OF THESE FACTOR SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF  
INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL, INCLUDING THE THREAT OF A STRONG  
TORNADO, MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL LA WHERE STP IS 4-6.  

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4 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

No. The actual meso itself is barely in LCH's area.

Oh. Oops. I've got nothing. I feel like this storm is just messing with mets now though. It weakens whenever there's a tor emergency issued. It shoots off some anticyclonics, satellites, and is now threading RIGHT between the warning county line polygons. 

 

Good SPC nowcasting: *sees tornado*: conditions are very appropriate for a tornado! However, that's also me, so, retracted. I wonder if moderate risk would have verified today. Starting with the earlier FOUR concurrent tornadic supercells in OK, today has felt more outbreaky than enhanced. I know we won't know until later. Just getting that sense. 

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Should be at the MS border around midnight or maybe 11:45

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I am very interested to see how many tornadoes come out of today. This storm alone may have produced 15 

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still down

LAC029-MSC001-230400-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-200423T0400Z/  
CONCORDIA LA-ADAMS MS-  
1025 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR WEST  
CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN  
ADAMS COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1025 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER ACME, OR NEAR LARTO, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  

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3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I hope so, but I worry that kinematics will overcome thermodynamics.

Just needs a brief touchdown in MS

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looks like it did hit LSUA (forgot who mentioned it)

  
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1019 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0935 PM     TORNADO          6 S ALEXANDRIA          31.21N 92.46W   
04/22/2020                   RAPIDES            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT   
  
            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AT LSUA.  

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I hope so, but I worry that kinematics will overcome thermodynamics.

I was about to say, no, but, sure enough, the overshooting top has re-emerged on the cell. This storm should have its own wikipedia entry, all by itself. Just incredible how well organized this thing has been for so long. In any case, supercells can persist for awhile in sub-optimal environments, and actually for a cell this organized it's generating its own lift environment....but they're convective weather phenomena at the end of the day. While the cell won't necessarily die off immediately, it does stand to reason, that having been in such a conducive environment for so long, as it leaves that environment, it will weaken. Maybe slowly, maybe quickly. But, this storm won't maintain itself in stable air at the low levels. The southern of the two northern cells, is still in a favorable thermodynamic environment, AND shear environment, so it bears watching the next 30 mins to an hour. It also has the advantage that the long track cell has had--clear and relatively undisturbed air to the south for inflow. 

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