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April 12 Severe Event

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somewhat discrete cells forming from those one mentioned before near JAN SSW to the gulf coast

may be a convergent line where SSE wind meet SSW

this MAY be what models where picking up yesterday and the question was will it crapvection or not

 

 

 

 

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Just now, SmokeEater said:

Severe warning for the discrete cell NW of Jackson, let's see where we go from here.

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Interested to see if it starts to turn right sometime soon’ish... otherwise it seems that it would crash into the blob of rain.

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SPC really needed a narrow high risk area from Monroe- Chattanooga. You can see the HRRR and NAM3km  shows a semidiscrete line training over that area for the next 8-10 hrs!!!!!

\

  Likely to be a parade of tornadic cells along that line, while they remain scattered everywhere else.

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Given the incredible degree of 0-1km SRH, I’m surprised we aren’t seeing more “bird wing” looking mini cells as is typical with days like this.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1242 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
LAC035-MSC055-125-121815-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200412T1815Z/  
EAST CARROLL LA-ISSAQUENA MS-SHARKEY MS-  
1242 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR EAST  
CARROLL PARISH...ISSAQUENA AND SHARKEY COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1241 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TRANSYLVANIA,  
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

SPC really needed a narrow high risk area from Monroe- Chattanooga. You can see the HRRR and NAM3km  shows a semidiscrete line training over that area for the next 8-10 hrs!!!!!

\

  Likely to be a parade of tornadic cells along that line, while they remain scattered everywhere else.

I saw something on Twitter that the SPC may be considering a High Risk. Not sure how good the source is though.

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Given the incredible degree of 0-1km SRH, I’m surprised we aren’t seeing more “bird wing” looking mini cells as is typical with days like this.

Last check, low-level lapse rates and 0-3km instability are still fairly marginal. I think the most intense discrete action won’t be until 21-00z.

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I saw something on Twitter that the SPC may be considering a High Risk. Not sure how good the source is though.
I'm glued to NWS chat all day, nothing as of yet. But I agree, I would have went high, but it's a moot point now, the only ones who care are people like us tracking it, lol. The seriousness of this event has been well conveyed by multiple WFO's and news media.

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26 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

somewhat discrete cells forming from those one mentioned before near JAN SSW to the gulf coast

may be a convergent line where SSE wind meet SSW

this MAY be what models where picking up yesterday and the question was will it crapvection or not

 

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0353  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE   
  
VALID 121802Z - 122000Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL,  
DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES, MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE  
THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.  
  
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE  
AND INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL  
CONFLUENCE AXIS. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF  
THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DOES RESIDE OVER  
THIS AREA PER RECENT VWP ESTIMATES FROM KLIX. A VERY MOIST AND  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LA, WITH SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN  
THE LOW 70S. RESULTANT MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF  
STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT  
SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS  
COULD OCCUR IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED. A COUPLE  
TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300-350  
M2/S2. AT THIS POINT, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING  
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MODEST LOW-LEVEL  
INVERSION. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED.  

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Nice TDS out of Gary/Rolling Fork
Crazy, rotation looks like crap, hit CC and there's a big TDS. 7c34277298942815a1a64dd52a96ed8c.jpg

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Numerous thunderstorms firing in the Acadiana region of Louisiana, with a couple severe warned cells over Lafayette that need to be watched with the perfect environment in front of them.

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29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I saw something on Twitter that the SPC may be considering a High Risk. Not sure how good the source is though.

Yes, I have also seen that text considering an upgrade. After the confection clears and the warm front moves through, I guess they want to see how quickly the area.

Here is their wording: 

SPC:

THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION OUTPACING
STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY (ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHEAST
EXTENT), AS WELL AS THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE, TO PRECLUDE AN
UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK.

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don forget about the areas more west

clearing out nicely

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0110 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE   
  
VALID 121810Z - 121945Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A  
WATCH IS POSSIBLE.  
  
DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN  
OKLAHOMA HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A  
MORNING MCS. MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 750 TO 1250 J/KG PER SPC  
MESOANALYSIS. SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE  
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE STORM COVERAGE QUICKLY EXPANDS IN THE NEXT 1  
TO 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STORM INTENSITY  
WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MUTED DUE TO AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FROM THE  
EARLIER CONVECTION, BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.   
  
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAY BE  
THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW STORMS, BUT THE FAST SPEED MAY CUT OFF  
UPDRAFTS FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS BEFORE THEY CAN BECOME  
BETTER ROOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, THE BETTER THREAT FOR  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WITH STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD  
OF THIS FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. BOUNDARY  
LAYER CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO FORM IN THIS AREA AND SPC MESOANALYSIS  
INDICATES CINH IS MOSTLY ERODED INDICATING STORM DEVELOPMENT IS  
LIKELY IMMINENT.   
  
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE LARGE HAIL  
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THE  
TLX VWP, BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK (LESS THAN 20 KTS) WHICH  
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE THAN A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO.  
HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35-40 KNOTS  
AFTER 22Z IN SOUTHEAST OK/NE TX WHICH MAY LEAD TO A GREATER TORNADO  
THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING IN THAT REGION.   
  
A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF STORM INTENSITY WILL BE  
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THE INCREASING  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  

 

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The more dangerous portion of the QLCS will pass relatively close to Yazoo City.  The hail-producing

storm over Carthage is beginning to show an aloft circulation on the Columbus radar.

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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

That actually isn't a debris signature here. It is over clear air and any CC drop not correlated with a circulation and dbz<40, so that specifically isn't debris.

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