SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Gotcha. Thanks!No problem, I'm by no means an expert, but any questions, feel free to ask. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Can someone start an Obs thread for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 worth noting that a robust ofb is evident along the SE flank of the line. This means that tail end spin ups along the line are unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: 15 UTC HRRR is breaking out a line of supercells ahead of the QLCS in the volatile part of the warm sector.... then reloads for AL again late evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Tornado after tornado after tornado with the morning QLCS across Louisiana... don’t recall many (Any?) people addressing this potential over the last few days. 10 hours ago, Quincy said: Every run of the HRRR since 22z has gradually been backing off. Right now, there’s very little convection at all. FWIW, the HRRR also shows gradually less convective blobbing along the warm front tomorrow morning. My guess is the tornado action could start as early as late morning on the SW/S flank of early day storms, probably in Louisiana, but possibly as far west as extreme eastern Texas. Arkansas (possibly eastern Oklahoma?) is interesting with funky wind profiles that could result in hybrid tornadic supercells. MS/W AL is still a wildcard area with many possible scenarios. Overnight tomorrow still really concerns me across a broad area from MS to GA, whether it be a broken line of supercells or a massive squall line with numerous QLCS tornadoes Overall, given the background environment, any convection near or south of the warm front needs to be watched as early as 16-17z. Even with messy storm modes, you can get strong tornadoes with so much low-level shear. Granted the storms started a bit earlier than 11 a.m., but I think most of us were/are more focused on the warm sector, where long-lived, intense/violent tornadoes will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Can someone start an Obs thread for this event? No need. This thread will be the catch all for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Will the junky convection over parts of AL and MS do anything to hinder instability it that region..seems pretty widespread. Edit: Actually SVR storm near Jackson, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: 15 UTC HRRR is breaking out a line of supercells ahead of the QLCS in the volatile part of the warm sector.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Jackson VWP 1606z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Will the junky convection over parts of AL and MS do anything to hinder instability it that region..seems pretty widespread. That’s effectively the warm front. As that surges north, so does the moist, unstable air mass. So, I don’t think it will play much of a deleterious role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said: Jackson VWP 1606z Wow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Quincy said: Could spacing be a limiting factor with those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Lots of clearing now over southern MS and parts of southern AL. Moving north pretty fast and it's only 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Quincy said: Wow...if spacing isn’t an issue then this could be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: Could spacing be a limiting factor with those? It’s one potential limiting factor. All it takes is one lone storm in the open warm sector away from other convection to go on to produce an intense long-lived supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Something to consider is the placement of the qlcs right now vs where there 15z hrrr pegged it in its 2 hour forecast -- real obs would suggest this line is moving much faster than the HRRR forecast, limiting warm sector opportunity for open sector supercells. jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Will the junky convection over parts of AL and MS do anything to hinder instability it that region..seems pretty widespread. Edit: Actually SVR storm near Jackson, MS. I am in South Mississippi and currently looking at the sun. I really don't believe instability will be an issue for the MDT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Tornado after tornado after tornado with the morning QLCS across Louisiana... don’t recall many (Any?) people addressing this potential over the last few days. And it is somewhat surprising to see tornadoes this intense in the QLCS. Usually I expect rather modest spin ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said: Something to consider is the placement of the qlcs right now vs where there 15z hrrr pegged it in its 2 hour forecast -- real obs would suggest this line is moving much faster than the HRRR forecast, limiting warm sector opportunity for open sector supercells. jmo This is a very good point. The 15 UTC HRRR is a little too far north, a little slow, and seems to be a little too discrete with this QLCS convection. Hard to tell what downstream impacts this might have, but it make me a bit skeptical of that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I don't know if my eyes are playing games on me, but it looks like a cell is trying to emerge from the line near Monroe --> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 SPC maintained Moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Still moderate risk, but it was expanded NE a bit into parts of Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Moderate risk remains intact for the 1630z outlook. Concerns about convection surging ahead of the surface-based instability precludes a high risk upgrade. MDT extension into TN is for a 45% hatched wind risk; the 15% hatched tornado risk stays south of the TN/AL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Probably good call on Mod...way too much uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Suppose given CAM solutions/uncertainties the only way we were going to get a high risk was if we were in the midst of numerous discrete cells... perhaps at 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormySquares Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Couplet in Monroe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, jojo762 said: Suppose given CAM solutions/uncertainties the only way we were going to get a high risk was if we were in the midst of numerous discrete cells... perhaps at 20z. Sorta like 4/28/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Did the mod risk include Atlanta already? Seems significant that it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, StormySquares said: Couplet in Monroe yeah this could get bad Monroe pretty sizable town..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 CC drop over the south side of Monroe. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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