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mappy

COVID-19 Talk

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8 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I watched his report yesterday and what his public health expert said was, they take the daily numbers and use it to train the model from the days before.

they take daily national numbers and use that to train a model for local predictions? 

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

Would it be fair for him to look at regional numbers?  Like Tri-State and surrounding NE states

Sure. Its a good visual on spread, but its not complete. How can you put incomplete numbers into a model and expect a reasonable outcome? 

would you put incomplete numbers in one of your water line surveys and tell your work that its all good, that line wont be impacted if someone digs nearby? 

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Getting even closer to home. A friend lost his younger brother last night and my sister likely has it. Was told by two doctors she doesn’t need a test because she’s not in a high risk group and doesn’t have severe enough symptoms. If she does, it’s just a matter of time before I get it. 

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Pretty spot on with the doom porn analogy, sir. There has to be some correlation between people who seem to hope for disastrous weather events to those possibly "rooting" for more deadly viral tolls. People need to chill out on taking offense to opinions with which they may disagree. It is a forum, after all, theoretically.

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5 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

It was showing in the 80,000’s when the 100,000-240,000 number was being thrown out by the task force. It went up to the 90,000’s, dropped down to around 60,000 and now is up to around 68,800. There were articles written about how no one could figure out where the 100,000 to 240,000 range came from. 
 

In any case, the model is not working out on the back side of the peak for Italy and Spain. The model is incapable of showing a gradual descent.

I think some of this might be a function of fatalities from days previous being recorded for that day. So you end up seeing deaths lag longer than the modeling thinks they should. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

OK, so you just made the case for why many localities in the US can start to reopen. Last time I brought that up, your retort was that “thousands are dying every day!”

Thousands are dying every day, I’m not sure how that means many localities can start to reopen right now - many public health officials are making the decisions based on regional information. I trust the public health officials will reopen based on the numbers they have.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Getting even closer to home. A friend lost his younger brother last night and my sister likely has it. Was told by two doctors she doesn’t need a test because she’s not in a high risk group and doesn’t have severe enough symptoms. If she does, it’s just a matter of time before I get it. 

Have you guys been locked down?

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Getting even closer to home. A friend lost his younger brother last night and my sister likely has it. Was told by two doctors she doesn’t need a test because she’s not in a high risk group and doesn’t have severe enough symptoms. If she does, it’s just a matter of time before I get it. 

I’m so sorry... stay strong.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Getting even closer to home. A friend lost his younger brother last night and my sister likely has it. Was told by two doctors she doesn’t need a test because she’s not in a high risk group and doesn’t have severe enough symptoms. If she does, it’s just a matter of time before I get it. 

sorry to hear, friend. Hugs.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Thousands are dying every day, I’m not sure how that means many localities can start to reopen right now - many public health officials are making the decisions based on regional information. I trust the public health officials will reopen based on the numbers they have.

LOL ok back to saying nation wide numbers should drive local decisions. 

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Thousands are dying every day, I’m not sure how that means many localities can start to reopen right now - many public health officials are making the decisions based on regional information. I trust the public health officials will reopen based on the numbers they have.

which is it?

nationwide numbers decide, or local numbers decide? you're kind of flipping back and forth here.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

LOL ok back to saying nation wide numbers should drive local decisions. 

No, what I am saying is, I’m not sure how you can get to the conclusion that many localities can start to open right now when the reality is, most are moving in the other direction.

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Just now, mappy said:

which is it?

nationwide numbers decide, or local numbers decide? you're kind of flipping back and forth here.

No, regional numbers decide and I’m sure public health officials are adequately taking the numbers in to make the decision. I was responding to Phineas assertion that many localities can start to reopen right now (a statement of the at large picture) with my own statement of the at large picture (I’m not sure we are at the level yet where we can say many can start to reopen when we are not seeing anything close to that, and instead seeing extensions).

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Just now, supernovasky said:

No, what I am saying is, I’m not sure how you can get to the conclusion that many localities can start to open right now when the reality is, most are moving in the other direction.

Have you looked at where the majority of those deaths are coming from? NY area and nursing homes. There are some other smaller hotspots around but the majority of the country is at a far lower level. The death hot spots are not at all spread out evenly. Maybe that’s causing the confusion?

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Have you looked at where the majority of those deaths are coming from? NY area and nursing homes. There are some other smaller hotspots around but the majority of the country is at a far lower level. The death hot spots are not at all spread out evenly. Maybe that’s causing the confusion?

Actually the nursing home data is being undercounted, that’s been reported on heavily. 

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Just now, supernovasky said:

No, regional numbers decide and I’m sure public health officials are adequately taking the numbers in to make the decision. I was responding to Phineas assertion that many localities can start to reopen right now (a statement of the at large picture) with my own statement of the at large picture (I’m not sure we are at the level yet where we can say many can start to reopen when we are not seeing anything close to that, and instead seeing extensions).

But even regional numbers shouldn't decide, thats still too big of a scope...in my opinion. 

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Just now, supernovasky said:

No, regional numbers decide and I’m sure public health officials are adequately taking the numbers in to make the decision. I was responding to Phineas assertion that many localities can start to reopen right now (a statement of the at large picture) with my own statement of the at large picture (I’m not sure we are at the level yet where we can say many can start to reopen when we are not seeing anything close to that, and instead seeing extensions).

I don’t think you understand what I am saying. I am not advocating a national reopening. I am saying county by county. In that scheme, nation wide daily death counts are totally unhelpful. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

But even regional numbers shouldn't decide, thats still too big of a scope...in my opinion. 

Depends on how interconnected the areas are. Borders are porous in the US. Unless they somehow start enforcing county checkpoints. Which seems unlikely but who knows.

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17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think some of this might be a function of fatalities from days previous being recorded for that day. So you end up seeing deaths lag longer than the modeling thinks they should. 

But then the total should be ultimately close to correct if it’s just about a lag. In other words, the reality reflecting a lag should have a lower peak (because deaths are going to counted later) than the original model projection. Italy’s already gone over what was the upper bound *final* total of the uncertainty range from the model’s projection a few days ago.
 

Here’s a pretty clear twitter thread about the symmetrical “forcing” in the IHME model and how it’s not working past peak for Italy, Spain, and New York:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009

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At the end of the day, people are going to have to assess their own risk level and act accordingly. And hopefully they will continue to wash hands frequently; practice social distancing; and wear your mask when needed.

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8 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

But then the total should be ultimately close to correct if it’s just about a lag. In other words, the reality reflecting a lag should have a lower peak (because deaths are going to counted later) than the original model projection. Italy’s already gone over what was the upper bound *final* total of the uncertainty range from the model’s projection a few days ago.
 

Here’s a pretty clear twitter thread about the symmetrical “forcing” in the IHME model and how it’s not working past peak for Italy, Spain, and New York:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009

Yeah, it doesn’t seem to follow a normal distribution type of pattern in new cases. The tail seems much longer than expected.

 

I was watching this back in January and this is actually why China used the extreme measures. They could get the cases to stop growing but it was too hard to get the cases back down to zero otherwise.

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12 hours ago, WVclimo said:

 

officially our schools are only closed through this coming Monday.  The governor hasn't made any pronouncements for beyond 4/20.

schools are closed until at least 4/30, if that helps:

https://www.wvpublic.org/post/justice-hopeful-reopen-schools-summer-offers-no-timeline#stream/0

 

 

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Depends on how interconnected the areas are. Borders are porous in the US. Unless they somehow start enforcing county checkpoints. Which seems unlikely but who knows.

if you think the protests in MI are bad, imagine how awful people would riot if we started doing county by county checkpoints

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Just now, mappy said:

if you think the protests in MI are bad, imagine how awful people would riot if we started doing county by county checkpoints

Hence why they have to use regional numbers :(

 

and god those protests in Michigan. Gonna be in history books for sure.

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Hence why they have to use regional numbers :(

 

and god those protests in Michigan. Gonna be in history books for sure.

Sigh. No. Its not an either or type of thing. Just because you shouldn't use regional numbers doesnt mean you go to county by county checkpoints. There are options in the middle. 

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19 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

At the end of the day, people are going to have to assess their own risk level and act accordingly. And hopefully they will continue to wash hands frequently; practice social distancing; and wear your mask when needed.

Precisely

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