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mappy

COVID-19 Talk

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I don’t know that you’re allowing enough time to see the trends.  People will take time to slowly come out, it’s not like everyone in Georgia is going to a restaurant on Monday.  My guess is trends would evident more on the 6-8+ week time frame. 

I think that is kind of factored in in "how much economic activity returns".

 

But you're right.

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Just now, wxtrix said:

the rest of it isn't factual at all.

i wasn't defending his post. just that number, that i too did not believe. until i went searching for it. PD3 would serve himself better if he posts links when he throws out numbers.

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The difference between 0.01 and 0.05 is very significant in epidimololgy.  The percentage of people that are vulnerable is another factor.

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It’s :facepalm:that some are taking a study that pretty much confirms how awful unmitigated spread would be and are somehow manipulating some numbers and ignoring others to twist it into a case for exactly that!  

Bottom line is even if we take the absolute best case pie in the sky estimate for each factor, lowest estimated Mortality, lowest possible herd quotient, we would still get well over a million deaths from a scenario of unmitigated spread. And that’s accepting the best case.  

But this game is getting exhausting.  I’m sure once the efforts to spin the data get old the conversation will return to relativism and utilitarian arguments like,  is a million people really that many in the grand scheme or libertarian ones like “but what about my personal rights”. It’s onviouslt not going to end no matter how much statistical evidence emerges because some people just don’t like it and that’s all that matters. 

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Oh and one last thing...before the “but the economy” arguments start up again. The economy has already been tanked. It’s too late.  There is no way to flip a switch and just undo what’s been done.  And even if we open and go herd immunity the economy will be further damaged by the 200 million sick people and 25 million people that would end up hospitalized in the unmitigated spread scenario (again using best case scenarios) and the 1-2 million deaths.  We are going to suffer economically for a while no matter what we do now.  So that is a really crappy justification for accepting a strategy with  higher projected fatalities. 

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49 minutes ago, mappy said:

he isn't wrong - i had to go look for it myself. 

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-york-may-have-been-infected-study-finds-nj-poised-to-top-100k-cases/2388182/

Up to 2.7 million New Yorkers may have been infected with coronavirus -- more than 10 times the number of confirmed cases, according to preliminary results from the state's first antibody study. 

 

 

He is wrong. He stated NYC. Thats for all of NY state. 

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8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

He is wrong. He stated NYC. Thats for all of NY state. 

ooo good point. thanks

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Just now, mappy said:

ooo good point. thanks

Hes off by roughly 1 million people. Which of course according to him is data noise since .1% of the population dying and .5% arent different. ;)

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh and one last thing...before the “but the economy” arguments start up again. The economy has already been tanked. It’s too late.  There is no way to flip a switch and just undo what’s been done.  And even if we open and go herd immunity the economy will be further damaged by the 200 million sick people and 25 million people that would end up hospitalized in the unmitigated spread scenario (again using best case scenarios) and the 1-2 million deaths.  We are going to suffer economically for a while no matter what we do now.  So that is a really crappy justification for accepting a strategy with  higher projected fatalities. 

Folks forget that even if you get sick, go to the hospital and live, you're likely coming out with some form of medical debt. The more folks with debt, the less they're going to buy.

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Fear is the greatest motivator of people.  Until people feel safe and think we have this under control. You can open up all the shops, restaurants, clubs, ect. But no one is going to go in large #s.   You want to get the economy back open ?   Take care of the health crisis and the economy will gradually recover. Just my opinion .  

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5 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

Fear is the greatest motivator of people.  Until people feel safe and think we have this under control. You can open up all the shops, restaurants, clubs, ect. But no one is going to go in large #s.   You want to get the economy back open ?   Take care of the health crisis and the economy will gradually recover. Just my opinion .  

Agree, you can “open up” all you want but if you do it incorrectly and people turn on the news and see their local hospital flooded with dying covid patients the economy isn’t going to be in great shape. 

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39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks forget that even if you get sick, go to the hospital and live, you're likely coming out with some form of medical debt. The more folks with debt, the less they're going to buy.

Plus people aren’t doing most normal economic activity when they are sick. And the loss of much of entertainment and service industry is going to hurt bad no matter what we do.  

There are a LOT of factors people are failing to accurately incorporate into their theories. And that’s why it’s dangerous to think we know better than the experts. I’m sure there are factors I don’t know or am missing also but I’m not the one suggesting I know better than them. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Plus people aren’t doing most normal economic activity when they are sick. And the loss of much of entertainment and service industry is going to hurt bad no matter what we do.  

There are a LOT of factors people are failing to accurately incorporate into their theories. And that’s why it’s dangerous to think we know better than the experts. I’m sure there are factors I don’t know or am missing also but I’m not the one suggesting I know better than them. 

Yea I don't get why people are having a hard time understanding this.  

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Implications likely for other states soon:

 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Plus people aren’t doing most normal economic activity when they are sick. And the loss of much of entertainment and service industry is going to hurt bad no matter what we do.  

There are a LOT of factors people are failing to accurately incorporate into their theories. And that’s why it’s dangerous to think we know better than the experts. I’m sure there are factors I don’t know or am missing also but I’m not the one suggesting I know better than them. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Seems to contradict the prevailing wisdom among a certain group who think that we are a few weeks away from everyone ignoring stay at home orders.  

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Seems to contradict the prevailing wisdom among a certain group who think that we are a few weeks away from everyone ignoring stay at home orders.  

IMO, so long as state's present sound plans for re-opening with targeted dates or date ranges, you'll see the public support probably stay here.  If things are open-ended then yea obviously support for this will erode.

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8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Seems to contradict the prevailing wisdom among a certain group who think that we are a few weeks away from everyone ignoring stay at home orders.  

While I agree with the thought, I think that when states begin to allow reopening and employers demand employees to go back to work, people won't be left with much of a choice.

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We continue seeing more food processing plants closing up because of covid. At wegmans this morning I found meat supply to be as such....

Chicken - nothing

Ground beef - plentiful

Steak - limited

Pork - plentiful

Ground turkey - plentiful

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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

We continue seeing more food processing plants closing up because of covid. At wegmans this morning I found meat supply to be as such....

Chicken - nothing

Ground beef - plentiful

Steak - limited

Pork - plentiful

Ground turkey - plentiful

Good to see. I haven’t had much struggle getting the items I want from Wegmans via Instacart, I’m not lacking for food at all.

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31 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Seems to contradict the prevailing wisdom among a certain group who think that we are a few weeks away from everyone ignoring stay at home orders.  

Hey DCT ...what certain group? What prevailing wisdom?Exactly Who said (everyone) would ignore stay at home orders in a " few" weeks? 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, snowfan said:

We continue seeing more food processing plants closing up because of covid. At wegmans this morning I found meat supply to be as such....

Chicken - nothing

Ground beef - plentiful

Steak - limited

Pork - plentiful

Ground turkey - plentiful

Its going to get worse before it gets better for meat departments over the next few weeks. 

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hey DCT ...what certain group? What prevailing wisdom?Exactly Who said (everyone) would ignore stay at home orders in a " few" weeks? 

 

 

 

 Well I guess mostly phin lol but IIRC he had a few other supporters that were pretty sure the shelf life on the stay at home orders wasn't very long. 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hey DCT ...what certain group? What prevailing wisdom?Exactly Who said (everyone) would ignore stay at home orders in a " few" weeks? 

 

 

 

I think saying it was a group is exaggerating.  It was really only a couple contrarians like phin and golfsnow who said that.  2 people isn’t really a group. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think saying it was a group is exaggerating.  It was really only a couple contrarians like phin and golfsnow who said that.  2 people isn’t really a group. 

I think Eskimo Joe hit the nail on the head.  If the orders are open ended a few weeks from now support for them with drop significantly.  But if over the next couple weeks there are some concrete plans and dates being rolled out that would go a long way to help people psychologically at least.  Obviously this is happening in some places now. Using VA as a local example, if we still have shelter in place orders in mid May without any concrete plan for reopening, then i think support for the order will be less than 50%.  No need to throw anything at me.  It is just an opinion.

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15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

 Well I guess mostly phin lol but IIRC he had a few other supporters that were pretty sure the shelf life on the stay at home orders wasn't very long. 

Your post was very vague and made wild assumptions . Your reply didn't really help but I'm moving on .

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