Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm sure as soon as we get widespread +10C 850 temps, we'll be getting a wheel-o-rhea spraying Atlantic ass in our face for a week straight.

LOL, yeah not much good that does when it's Margaritaville at 850. Terrible pattern for quarantining. When the weather is nice, everyone is outside and social distancing is not exactly the first thing on their minds. You could argue this pattern is not helping because once it gets nice...everyone wants to be outside. I heard the public garden yesterday was loaded with people.

[ORH_wxman]

FWIW, CHH raob has only ever had an 850 temp of -10C or colder one time on record after 4/15.

It occurred on 4/23/89...-13C (!!!). They may make -10C at 12z Wednesday....though they could fall just short too.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure which event could do it, but I sort of want to pay attn to the second storm later Sunday and Sunday night for any chance of something white for the hills. I don't see anything definite....hell the storm may not happen...but the overall look with the trough and high to the north, is interesting.  I suppose Friday could do something, but that is starting to look more like some rain in SNE as it stretches out and doesn't amplify.

[ORH_wxman]

Really low freezing heights (around 4200-4500 feet) tomorrow for any convection....probably should see small hail in any type of convective element tomorrow.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not sure which event could do it, but I sort of want to pay attn to the second storm later Sunday and Sunday night for any chance of something white for the hills. I don't see anything definite....hell the storm may not happen...but the overall look with the trough and high to the north, is interesting.  I suppose Friday could do something, but that is starting to look more like some rain in SNE as it stretches out and doesn't amplify.

Yeah the 2nd weekend system seems to have a little more potential to produce snow than the first one...though either could do it if things break right.

[ORH_wxman]

Wednesday looks horrendous....like low/mid 40s with wind for highs despite some sun and no precip.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro gives hills near 1” tomorrow evening. Thinking not 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

My forsythia is just trying to open up this morning. A lot of trees have swelling buds, but the apple is fairly dormant here as well.

Here’s a peach tree question that maybe @tamarack would know...if I chop back the central leader of a peach tree right in half and leave one original branch below it for this season (for photosynthesis), what are the odds I’ll get decent regrowth branching near the top to get a nicely shaped tree? The tree looks hideous so I may take a shot at it anyway. I know this method isn’t preferred, but I have seen a few people on YT try this with younger fruit trees. The diameter of the leader where I plan to cut back is probably an inch and a half diameter. There was some growth out of it last year even without any pruning. 

Nice Forsythia shot I took

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

My forsythia is just trying to open up this morning. A lot of trees have swelling buds, but the apple is fairly dormant here as well.

Here’s a peach tree question that maybe @tamarack would know...if I chop back the central leader of a peach tree right in half and leave one original branch below it for this season (for photosynthesis), what are the odds I’ll get decent regrowth branching near the top to get a nicely shaped tree? The tree looks hideous so I may take a shot at it anyway. I know this method isn’t preferred, but I have seen a few people on YT try this with younger fruit trees. The diameter of the leader where I plan to cut back is probably an inch and a half diameter. There was some growth out of it last year even without any pruning. 

My expertise in pruning of fruit trees is modest (understatement!) and totally absent for anything but apples.  However, peach trees are generally quite vigorous so your plan may work well, though you may need to choose among multiple shoots originating from the cut.  Maybe my experience with our best producing apple tree (Haralred) might be useful.  It had a narrow V-shaped fork about 5 feet from the ground with both sides of equal diameter.  Fearing a future disastrous split, I cut one fork 12-13 years ago when both were about 1.5" diameter.  The scar is grown over and the tree is nicely shaped now.

Edit:  Checked all my Maine data, and if yesterday's 59 holds as April's mildest (models look like that will be the case) it will be the fist time since moving to Maine in January 1973 that April failed to reach 60.  In 1976 and '78 the top was right at 60 - in Fort Kent.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I haven’t looked at a lot so I’d defer to Scoot, but the little I had seen the past couple days made me think maybe after d10-14? Some of the models were looking warmer around my b’day May 4th.

Happy birthday 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro gives hills near 1” tomorrow evening. Thinking not 

May be a few flakes to end. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Happy birthday 

We snow?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We snow?

That would be your first,there indeed might be flakes on the air if EPS is correct 

[Typhoon Tip]

The tenor in here smacks as predisposed over the last couple .. few pages. For whatever reason that bias aside, I stick by my guns that there's reasons for more optimism.  I posted about this in brief two or three pages/days ago.

Granted, we haven't had/seen much evidence in the ground-truth sensible weather, to date, but for spring/warm enthusiasts there are improving synoptic signals and aspects in the guidance wash.

For one, the 850 mb thermal layout clearly does some sort of continental scope and scale modification event that's been in the models for days. No one's said that... "Rather" the grouse tenor switches from miserable winter of failure .. right into a din of no-reason to enjoy the weather misery coming. 

The vast region of the Canadian shield, above 40 N and beneath ~ the 60th parallel significantly rises.  It goes from  ~ -10C to -20C (persistently reloading into those regions), to more in the 0C to -7 range. That's not probably climate unfriendly and is in fact more seasonal for those regions, and given that is our cold source in a pattern than is less steeply loading ( loss of antecedent -EPO), then one needs to include other modulating off-sets typical of spring, and "should" be able to see reasons for less glum. 

Without that higher latitude, -EPO direct cold loading pattern into the hemisphere, we're talkng mid August sun radiance by the end of this week, bathing mid latitudes. That's powdered bust-MOS-just-add-so-much-as-a-wan-sky.  You have to keep that in mind as a perpetual offset to any afternoon that offers a modicum of reason for more insolation. An error that is enhanced by the cold-captive audience's previous, seemingly unending gloomy suffering .. I get it.  We are just not able to lens the pattern through a different look. But the objective look and the subjective look seem to be in a strained marriage right now - lol.

This recent Euro's 00z depiction for Friday is comically different than the other guidance.  Speaking to that ... I mean, it's RH fields show by 3pm on Friday it's clear(ing) across the region, with 850 mb temperatures climbing to +5 to +2 SW to NE, with an ongoing off-shore light component flow, with RH plummetting... It could be 60 under a warm sun at that hour... Yet, look at the GFS!  holy shit...  wow.  That's what's gonna happen, right? Ha, could not be any more nape-angry butting heads to the Euro ... it's consistent too.  I know based on the above sentiment that it is easier to just assume the GFS is suddenly the good-to guy model of all time aplomb accuracy and glory ...but, the Euro is still inside of D5 with that different universal look. It's an interesting model battle.   But in fact, the Euro looks more "climate aware" for Thursday thru Saturday over all...so, it's an interesting model battle.  One has winter persistence look happening under an overal warming 850 mb tapestry... while the other (Euro) looks climate friendly and is a hugely different sensible appeal. Obviously I'm inclined to go with the Euro judging by the tenor of this, but I'll nod in favor of persistence because ...sometimes you just end up in f'ed patterns too. 

In either case though, the 850 mb total thermal layout is much, much different, which appears - to me - to be rooted in a loss of -EPO together with a bono fide seasonal flip in that regard, and it's possible the GFS type solutions are too strong anyway. As an afterthought, when we lose the 850 mb cold source, we also theoretically relax the ambient baroclinic instability ... --> weaker/pallid systems.  I guess we shouldn't consider that as room for optimism, either ?

 

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That would be your first,there indeed might be flakes on the air if EPS is correct 

Closest for me was probably 5/6/96. We had some snow mixing in with the rain that day. And in 2013 we were practically pushing Lisa’s bday in June. lol

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Closest for me was probably 5/6/96. We had some snow mixing in with the rain that day. And in 2013 we were practically pushing Lisa’s bday in June. lol

Lol

[ORH_wxman]

I remember 5/6/96 in ORH....we had snow starting to stick to the mulch and trash can tops....but then it ended before it could really go beyond a trace officially.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember 5/6/96 in ORH....we had snow starting to stick to the mulch and trash can tops....but then it ended before it could really go beyond a trace officially.

96 was such an epic wildly stormy year with extremes all over the place

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I remember as well. Mangled flakes.  It we had that last year on 5/12. Sleet and mangled flakes. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The tenor in here smacks as predisposed over the last couple .. few pages. For whatever reason that bias aside, I stick by my guns that there's reasons for more optimism.  I posted about this in brief two or three pages/days ago.

Granted, we haven't had/seen much evidence in the ground-truth sensible weather, to date, but for spring/warm enthusiasts there are improving synoptic signals and aspects in the guidance wash.

For one, the 850 mb thermal layout clearly does some sort of continental scope and scale modification event that's been in the models for days. No one's said that... "Rather" the grouse tenor switches from miserable winter of failure .. right into a din of no-reason to enjoy the weather misery coming. 

The vast region of the Canadian shield, above 40 N and beneath ~ the 60th parallel significantly rises.  It goes from  ~ -10C to -20C (persistently reloading into those regions), to more in the 0C to -7 range. That's not probably climate unfriendly and is in fact more seasonal for those regions, and given that is our cold source in a pattern than is less steeply loading ( loss of antecedent -EPO), then one needs to include other modulating off-sets typical of spring, and "should" be able to see reasons for less glum. 

Without that higher latitude, -EPO direct cold loading pattern into the hemisphere, we're talkng mid August sun radiance by the end of this week, bathing mid latitudes. That's powdered bust-MOS-just-add-so-much-as-a-wan-sky.  You have to keep that in mind as a perpetual offset to any afternoon that offers a modicum of reason for more insolation. An error that is enhanced by the cold-captive audience's previous, seemingly unending gloomy suffering .. I get it.  We are just not able to lens the pattern through a different look. But the objective look and the subjective look seem to be in a strained marriage right now - lol.

This recent Euro's 00z depiction for Friday is comically different than the other guidance.  Speaking to that ... I mean, it's RH fields show by 3pm on Friday it's clear(ing) across the region, with 850 mb temperatures climbing to +5 to +2 SW to NE, with an ongoing off-shore light component flow, with RH plummetting... It could be 60 under a warm sun at that hour... Yet, look at the GFS!  holy shit...  wow.  That's what's gonna happen, right? Ha, could not be any more nape-angry butting heads to the Euro ... it's consistent too.  I know based on the above sentiment that it is easier to just assume the GFS is suddenly the good-to guy model of all time aplomb accuracy and glory ...but, the Euro is still inside of D5 with that different universal look. It's an interesting model battle.   But in fact, the Euro looks more "climate aware" for Thursday thru Saturday over all...so, it's an interesting model battle.  One has winter persistence look happening under an overal warming 850 mb tapestry... while the other (Euro) looks climate friendly and is a hugely different sensible appeal. Obviously I'm inclined to go with the Euro judging by the tenor of this, but I'll nod in favor of persistence because ...sometimes you just end up in f'ed patterns too. 

In either case though, the 850 mb total thermal layout is much, much different, which appears - to me - to be rooted in a loss of -EPO together with a bono fide seasonal flip in that regard, and it's possible the GFS type solutions are too strong anyway. As an afterthought, when we lose the 850 mb cold source, we also theoretically relax the ambient baroclinic instability ... --> weaker/pallid systems.  I guess we shouldn't consider that as room for optimism, either ?

 

Euro has rain Friday and Saturday . 

[powderfreak]

38/13 here at midday under full sunshine at the ASOS, lol.

Some cold air mass aloft....Picnic tables were mid-teens this morning with wind.

SLK just rose above freezing, ha.

At least its sunny out, didn't realize how much of New England was cloudy right now.

[It's Always Sunny]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

May be a few flakes to end. 

That's what you call a happy ending 

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

38/13 here at midday under full sunshine at the ASOS, lol.

Some cold air mass aloft....Picnic tables were mid-teens this morning with wind.

SLK just rose above freezing, ha.

At least its sunny out, didn't realize how much of New England was cloudy right now.

Hope that crap slides east soon.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember 5/6/96 in ORH....we had snow starting to stick to the mulch and trash can tops....but then it ended before it could really go beyond a trace officially.

Mother's Day weekend that year featured 2+ days of continuous snow in the St. John Valley.  A co-worker from Frenchville (home is about 1100') had over a foot.  CAR had 3-4". 

[Weather_or_Not]

I get unreasonably irritated when weather stations/apps claim it's full sun, when it is actually bright overcast. Today is one such day.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has rain Friday and Saturday . 

lol. All that effort he put into that and all you have is this? 

lol

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

38/13 here at midday under full sunshine at the ASOS, lol.

Some cold air mass aloft....Picnic tables were mid-teens this morning with wind.

SLK just rose above freezing, ha.

At least its sunny out, didn't realize how much of New England was cloudy right now.

Yeah, been crystal clear pretty much all day here.  Chilly but nice

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has rain Friday and Saturday . 

Flakes for you?

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Flakes for you?

We flake!

[powderfreak]

Late April evening... clear and cold, ha.

59" of snow depth at the picnic tables.

Sharp gradient from spring to deep winter.