• Member Statistics

    15,889
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    bmoremdwx
    Newest Member
    bmoremdwx
    Joined

Recommended Posts

Over the past 7 days, Illinois has tested 98,279 people, with 16,728 positive cases (17%). Total current rate of positive cases is at 19.5%.

I don’t know if some people realize that those are 16,728 *currently* contagious/sick people. That amount of people is 40% of the capacity at Wrigley Field. And yeah, the majority of them will recover and be fine; but things are still a bit tricky right now to trust re-opening. I think it’s too easy to just pass off the daily numbers as being statistics instead of actual contagious people that could walk into a crowd & make things worse.

I feel for those that want some sense of normalcy; I want it too. I feel so bad for my Greek wife who lost her big family birthday trip to Greece. And good Lord, do I miss baseball. But we need some more time distanced. Just my 2 cents.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/23/2020 at 11:31 PM, Hoosier said:

Another thing that stands out is the very low number of cases in Tippecanoe county/Lafayette area.  Even with clearing out Purdue, there is still a pretty sizable population there.  And the testing rate per 10000 people there (blue map below) has been better than many other counties in the state.

I have noticed that cases seem to be growing pretty quickly around LAF now (total number still relatively modest though).  Perhaps it is the tentacles reaching out from Cass county or perhaps not, but it is hard to keep this thing down.  It is almost like when someone being chased by bees goes into the water and the bees wait for them to come up for air.  You can't keep yourself under water forever. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has anyone been checking into getting the antibody test?  I am thinking about getting one but may wait a bit.  I know some of them haven't been very reliable.  

As mentioned a while back, I was sick in March with a number of the symptoms and am curious to see if that's what it was.  Thing is that I was prescribed Azithromycin and saw a pretty rapid improvement after starting it, except for some shortness of breath which lingered longer.  To me that would point to it being something other than covid unless I was on the verge of getting over it anyway.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

373 employees at Triumph Foods (pork processing) in Missouri have tested positive but none are exhibiting any symptoms. You would think at least a few would be exhibiting some symptoms, no? The million dollar question continues to be just how many people in the US and worldwide have already been exposed to Covid and would have tested positive at some point over the past few months despite being asymptomatic? There's some serious holes in the data that need to be filled in order to truly understand the extent of the virus. Again, if testing was more readily available, in other words if every single person could get tested or get an accurate antibody test, only then can we fill these holes and not guess or rely on computer models.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ovweather said:

373 employees at Triumph Foods (pork processing) in Missouri have tested positive but none are exhibiting any symptoms. You would think at least a few would be exhibiting some symptoms, no? The million dollar question continues to be just how many people in the US and worldwide have already been exposed to Covid and would have tested positive at some point over the past few months despite being asymptomatic? There's some serious holes in the data that need to be filled in order to truly understand the extent of the virus. Again, if testing was more readily available, in other words if every single person could get tested or get an accurate antibody test, only then can we fill these holes and not guess or rely on computer models.

Was there a sick employee there that prompted the other employees to get tested?  Seems very unlikely that it will remain 0 for 373 on having symptoms. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Was there a sick employee there that prompted the other employees to get tested?  Seems very unlikely that it will remain 0 for 373 on having symptoms. 

According to the article on CNN.com, all 2000 employees at the plant were offered testing after it was made available to them by a partnership between the state health department and the local health department. There are obvious gaps in the news story as it never does mention if anyone was ever sick early on.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/2/2020 at 7:54 AM, Baum said:

Than there is this idiot:

https://youtu.be/28I5WyLp15o

He may be an idiot but on this his stance is shared by many who understand how the human immune system functions. Those compromised, or too scared should remain in their bubbles. Everyone else that can should be back to business. Strengthening one's immune defense against disease is another side of the coin getting very little air time. Just like the rest of western medicine..we wait for a pill from big pharma. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IHME model updated with a big increase in projected deaths.  Not surprising because it has been obvious now for a while that we are going to blow past the old number.

As more and more states start to reopen, our behavior is going to determine a lot.  I think this will be the main driving factor in terms of cases.  Spending more time outside helps by all indications, but not if you have a large chunk of society going back to living like we were months ago.  But I don't think we will be living like we were months ago, at least not many of us.  Masks will probably remain relatively commonplace and many people will tend to avoid areas they perceive as higher risk. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

He may be an idiot but on this his stance is shared by many who understand how the human immune system functions. Those compromised, or too scared should remain in their bubbles. Everyone else that can should be back to business. Strengthening one's immune defense against disease is another side of the coin getting very little air time. Just like the rest of western medicine..we wait for a pill from big pharma. 

We could do like Konstantin Chumakov suggests and see if we can induce broad spectrum, nonspecific partial immune protection by exposing the entire population to live attenuated poliovirus through the good old Sabin vaccine. It worked in the USSR, apparently. I’d be for it but I reckon that a fair whack of the aforementioned immunology cognoscenti that are advocates of strengthening one’s immune system would sh!t bricks

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/3/2020 at 8:52 PM, ovweather said:

373 employees at Triumph Foods (pork processing) in Missouri have tested positive but none are exhibiting any symptoms. You would think at least a few would be exhibiting some symptoms, no? The million dollar question continues to be just how many people in the US and worldwide have already been exposed to Covid and would have tested positive at some point over the past few months despite being asymptomatic? There's some serious holes in the data that need to be filled in order to truly understand the extent of the virus. Again, if testing was more readily available, in other words if every single person could get tested or get an accurate antibody test, only then can we fill these holes and not guess or rely on computer models.

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Jonger said:

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

We don't even try to social distance from the regular flu though.  I agree it's overhyped a bit, but your second sentence is just not true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Jonger said:

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

Personally speaking, it wasn't overhyped. I've had one friend die from it, although he had other high-risk health issues. I also have two other friends who have it. One was in the hospital for two weeks and the other is still in the hospital and has been there for four weeks. Both of these individuals were healthy and are middle-aged. There were times when the prognosis was grim for both and I thought I was going to lose three friends from it. I completely agree with the State of Indiana's response. I work in Emergency Management and we (along with the Health Dept.) head up the local response and PPE acquisitions. I continue to tell people that proclaim it is an overreaction because the numbers haven't hit computer model projections, "You're welcome." Because if nothing had been done, it would have been ugly, especially for the high-risk groups.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Jonger said:

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

I both agree and disagree. Of course the media overhypes just about everything because that brings good ratings. It's just what they do. But I don't think the health care system, doctors, scientists, etc, have been overhyping it. They have approached it with more of a common sense approach since we are dealing with a new virus that we have no clue what kind of potential long-term circumstances we may be dealing with. The politicians... well, they should all simply follow the advice of the medical experts, and not give in to pressure from their respective parties when making community based decisions, but that's never going to happen in this country.

I don't believe covid is more deadly than the flu, it is just far more contagious thus many more people can potentially catch it and thus die. If you are generally in very poor health from lifestyle choices or have a severely compromised immune system, odds are not in your favor of surviving either a severe case of covid or the flu. Plus, without a vaccine for covid, there is even more incentive to err on the side of caution right now.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, ovweather said:

I both agree and disagree. Of course the media overhypes just about everything because that brings good ratings. It's just what they do. But I don't think the health care system, doctors, scientists, etc, have been overhyping it. They have approached it with more of a common sense approach since we are dealing with a new virus that we have no clue what kind of potential long-term circumstances we may be dealing with. The politicians... well, they should all simply follow the advice of the medical experts, and not give in to pressure from their respective parties when making community based decisions, but that's never going to happen in this country.

I don't believe covid is more deadly than the flu, it is just far more contagious thus many more people can potentially catch it and thus die. If you are generally in very poor health from lifestyle choices or have a severely compromised immune system, odds are not in your favor of surviving either a severe case of covid or the flu. Plus, without a vaccine for covid, there is even more incentive to err on the side of caution right now.

The best data we have does point to it being more contagious and more deadly than the flu, but the exact rates are definitely up for debate.  We are not talking 50 or 100 times more deadly, but even a 0.5% IFR (which is a reasonable stab at it at this point) would make it multiple times more deadly than the flu.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jonger said:

This entire virus was overhyped. If the same scrutiny was placed on the flu every year, the numbers would be identical.

34k people died from the flu last year, nearly 70k from this in 9 weeks with nearly 3k a day at this point. Even the worst year in the last 10, 2 years ago had 61k cases.

You can't be any more wrong.

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Stebo said:

34k people died from the flu last year, nearly 70k from this in 9 weeks with nearly 3k a day at this point. Even the worst year in the last 10, 2 years ago had 61k cases.

You can't be any more wrong.

Lets keep some perspective here. There were about 330 million people in the US before this started, and there are still about 330 million people. Roughly 0.02% of the population has died.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Lets keep some perspective here. There were about 330 million people in the US before this started, and there are still about 330 million people. Roughly 0.02% of the population has died.

Yeah that's a good way to marginalize the 70k number as being insignificant. I see that happen universally by people who see this as no big deal. "Yeah but it's only 0.02% of people." Let's put it this way 70k people is over double my city dead in 9 weeks. Sounds a bit different when you put it in that perspective instead of turning it into a marginalized stat. Oh and this is with preventative measures on place too so realize how much worse it would be without them.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder exactly what percentage of the people who have lost family members to this illness hold the opinion that 0.02% isn't a high enough death toll to warrant our current preventative measures. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, ovweather said:

I both agree and disagree. Of course the media overhypes just about everything because that brings good ratings. It's just what they do. But I don't think the health care system, doctors, scientists, etc, have been overhyping it. They have approached it with more of a common sense approach since we are dealing with a new virus that we have no clue what kind of potential long-term circumstances we may be dealing with. The politicians... well, they should all simply follow the advice of the medical experts, and not give in to pressure from their respective parties when making community based decisions, but that's never going to happen in this country.

I don't believe covid is more deadly than the flu, it is just far more contagious thus many more people can potentially catch it and thus die. If you are generally in very poor health from lifestyle choices or have a severely compromised immune system, odds are not in your favor of surviving either a severe case of covid or the flu. Plus, without a vaccine for covid, there is even more incentive to err on the side of caution right now.

Good post!

Still a lot of uncertainty/questions surrounding the virus, which I am not sure we will ever know the answers to. In my opinion, a vaccine might cause more harm than good, since I think the virus will continue to mutate making it very difficult to protect against. Especially if they make the vaccine mandatory for all. It may be more effective to be more careful than many have been with hygiene and instead ensure that our immune system is as strong as we can maintain it. 

I think there is some validity to Jonger's post. We don't know if all of the reported covid deaths are because they tested positive for the virus irrespective of severity of other underlying conditions or deaths purely due to covid. We don't know if the same treatment is applied for annual flu-related deaths as is for covid. I am always cautious with sensitive data which can easily be "tweaked" to tell a slightly different story. Just my way of interpreting his post. 

Not downplaying this virus by any means, and I really feel for anyone that has been impacted by it. Unfortunately, in my opinion the ultimate goal was to bring the economy (US and most of the world) down irrespective of how many innocent lives are lost in the process.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think healthcare professionals in Italy would be ‘surprised’ by the suggestion that 150 physician deaths in three months from a novel infectious disease is comparable to the flu.

I don’t know, maybe given the much higher all-cause mortality and significantly lower lifespans for police and firefighters as an occupation generally, perhaps it is normal for thirty new york cops to die from flu in eight weeks.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This will be inherently more deadly than the flu because no one has any prior immunity from previous exposure or a vaccine like millions upon millions do every flu season, this is a fact that cannot be denied or argued.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

also disappointed but not shocked by the anti vaccination thoughts here.  it doesn't make your immune system weaker, it's provoking the exact same response in your body as if you actually got the disease, that's why it's effective.  Though maybe you are right and we should go back to having 15 million deaths a year due to smallpox and 500,000 deaths from polio each year.   There's a reason life expectancy has gone up so much in the past 100 years and its not because we're eating more cheeseburgers.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   1 member