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Coronavirus

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21 hours ago, Scorpion said:

104? That’s absolutely insane, I’d be outraged. That’s dangerous. Worst flu I had I got to 104. Certainly not touching that vaccine.

Yea you better antivax. It’s unsafe! I should also say using anecdotes of an exceptionally rare outcome to justify your decision is unwise. I had a poor reaction and still think people need to get it. 

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5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Yea you better antivax. It’s unsafe! I should also say using anecdotes of an exceptionally rare outcome to justify your decision is unwise. I had a poor reaction and still think people need to get it. 

How right you are. With a efficacy rate of 95%, which is astounding, there is still that 5% that is susceptible.

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26 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

How right you are. With a efficacy rate of 95%, which is astounding, there is still that 5% that is susceptible.

The frequency of exceptionally adverse reactions such as that 104 fever is even more rare than that. Reading through the actual data, there are occurrences, but they didn’t even happen in a high enough proportion to have a documented frequency. 
 

The 95/5 doesn’t refer to the side effects, rather how likely somebody is to catch symptomatic covid after the vaccine.

The risks are overwhelmingly worth the rewards. 

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20 hours ago, Stebo said:

I wouldn't go down to 200 per day, but could we get down to 1000 by say May? I think so. Maybe even 500 or less during the summer. If the vaccine can be distributed much quicker then less.

You have to take into account a lot of variables to have the numbers fall so rapidly with the most important being the priority vaccination of nursing home residents. This program alone can prevent up to 40% of covid related deaths and except for the most frail individuals, I don't see there being much vaccine resistance in this group. Similarly in the 65+ cohort, by May the majority of these individuals who elect to receive the vaccine should be vaccinated. Again when polls have been done that study vaccine acceptance, it is extremely high in this group for obvious reasons. Then there's the rest of the population over 18 with comorbidities for whom the vaccine should be available by May. Having these cohorts vaccinated with the best efficacy vaccines from Pfizer/Moderna will dramatically bring down the death rate. If there's wide enough distribution by May, vaccination alone could cut the death rate by 75% or more.

I'm addition to vaccination, by May seasonal factors should also be favorable for reducing the natural reproductive rate of the virus.

Combining these interventions could cut the death rate from where it is now at roughly 3500 daily deaths down by 90% in a realistic scenario 350 or by 95% in a best case scenario 175.

 

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19 hours ago, hlcater said:

The frequency of exceptionally adverse reactions such as that 104 fever is even more rare than that. Reading through the actual data, there are occurrences, but they didn’t even happen in a high enough proportion to have a documented frequency. 
 

The 95/5 doesn’t refer to the side effects, rather how likely somebody is to catch symptomatic covid after the vaccine.

The risks are overwhelmingly worth the rewards. 

This point can't be emphasized enough and just to put the data out there, in the Pfizer vaccine trial 10 total cases of severe covid, 9 in the placebo arm and 1 in the vaccine arm, and in the Moderna vaccine trial 11 cases of severe covid all in the placebo group.

 

Just to reiterate, once people in both vaccinations were fully inoculated, they prevented symptomatic covid by roughly 95% and there was additional protection against severe disease. 

For fever the rates of fever over 104 F in the Pfizer study was approximately 1 in 10,000 which was actually the same incidence in both the vaccine and placebo groups. Definitely a rare event.

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3 of my relatives have gotten the first dose of vaccine.  All 3 had some side effects.  One had just a mild headache.  Another had a more severe headache.  The third person had a lot of fatigue.  All of these resolved pretty quickly.  Since they reacted to the first dose, I am figuring they are going to have side effects from the second dose as well, but hopefully nothing too bad.  One of them goes for dose #2 next week.

 

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IHME updated with 566k deaths by May 1.  Daily deaths drop below 1000 after mid-March and down to slightly over 200 per day at the end of April.  IHME has had trouble modeling the downside of the curve in the past, but obviously there's a difference this time with more and more vaccinations.  Let's hope the numbers come down that fast.

IHME has bombed the downside of the curb since its inception. I remember Wisconsin topping out at 750 dead and then no more after July. I bet we get close to a 750,000 to a million dead before this is over.


.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

3 of my relatives have gotten the first dose of vaccine.  All 3 had some side effects.  One had just a mild headache.  Another had a more severe headache.  The third person had a lot of fatigue.  All of these resolved pretty quickly.  Since they reacted to the first dose, I am figuring they are going to have side effects from the second dose as well, but hopefully nothing too bad.  One of them goes for dose #2 next week.

 

my mom got her second dose a few days ago. so far no side effects at all through the first and second shot other than a sore arm

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4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:


IHME has bombed the downside of the curb since its inception. I remember Wisconsin topping out at 750 dead and then no more after July. I bet we get close to a 750,000 to a million dead before this is over.


.

Depends on how fast we get vaccines into arms. 

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All metrics currently suggest continued dropping off the peaks earlier this month. Cases, positivity, hospitalizations all falling. Reasonable chance 7-day case average falls below 200k by end of the week. Would think deaths start a steady fall around by the end of the month. Numbers are at such a high level it will take time to get them down though, even with vaccinations coming.

The only thing that would throw a wrench in declining numbers IMHO would be increased prevalence in either imported or (potentially) homegrown variants with increased transmission rates. Natural selection will favor such variants as numbers drop overall. Hopefully even if this scenario does come of pass by that time a large percentage of the most at risk have bean vaccinated. This would significantly reduce mortality and hospital strain. 

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Long term, the virus likely becomes endemic producing mostly mild symptoms which people won't need to be tested for, like the over 4 endemic circulating coronaviruses. The exact path from here to there is a bit of a question mark, as it depends on both vaccine uptake and evolution of the virus.  We just don't have another pandemic coronavirus to definitively compare it to, although it has been suggested this is what actually happened in 1890. In that case there were waves of varying severity over 4-5 years before becoming endemic. Of course there was no vaccine then  nor did we have the tools to monitor virus evolution on short time scales.

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The quicker we can vaccinate the quicker we can get out of this. Its just that simple. 

You know we're probably not getting out of it entirely.  Less than 100% efficacy of vaccines plus the 30% of America or whatever the number is that will never take the vaccine will make sure of it.  

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4 hours ago, dan11295 said:

All metrics currently suggest continued dropping off the peaks earlier this month. Cases, positivity, hospitalizations all falling. Reasonable chance 7-day case average falls below 200k by end of the week. Would think deaths start a steady fall around by the end of the month. Numbers are at such a high level it will take time to get them down though, even with vaccinations coming.

The only thing that would throw a wrench in declining numbers IMHO would be increased prevalence in either imported or (potentially) homegrown variants with increased transmission rates. Natural selection will favor such variants as numbers drop overall. Hopefully even if this scenario does come of pass by that time a large percentage of the most at risk have bean vaccinated. This would significantly reduce mortality and hospital strain. 

How much of the drop is due to everything closing back up though, every time we try to reopen things it just explodes again.

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:facepalm:

Man Allegedly Hid From Coronavirus And Authorities In Chicago Airport For 3 Months

A California man was arrested Saturday and accused hiding in a restricted area of Chicago's O'Hare International Airport for three months. The man told police that COVID-19 had rendered him too scared to travel home to California, so he hid in the airport, surviving on food provided by strangers, the Associated Press reported.

United Airlines staff spotted 36-year-old Aditya Singh and requested identification. They said he removed his mask and presented a badge, which belonged to an airport operations manager who reported it missing last October, the Chicago Tribune reported.

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/18/958081547/man-allegedly-hid-from-coronavirus-and-authorities-in-chicago-airport-for-3-mont

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I frequently wear 2... a disposable and a cloth.  If I'm going to be quickly in and out of some place then I usually just wear one.

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Some "changes" with the mask mandate coming tomorrow.  They will be required on federal property and while traveling, such as flying.  Airlines already generally have mask requirements though.  Meanwhile, North Dakota recently ended their mask mandate at the state level.

I appreciate a different tone from the top, but I'm sticking with what I said months ago.  It's too politicized and hard to undo.  If you haven't been wearing a mask all this time, chances are you won't start wearing one in your day to day life now.   

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Just now, WestMichigan said:

Where did you hear that?

More like chatter in Ohio/Dewine. Cases are coming down and vaccinations will boom February/March. I think people are underestimating the Admin change in terms of production and distribution. There is already some signs of progress from the doses given out. My guess 50% of all citizenry will have it by May destroying transmission(along with seasonality).

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1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

Where did you hear that?

Anything is possible but I'd be surprised if the mask mandates are gone everywhere by May.  I think a lot more states could have them pulled back by then though (we already see that in North Dakota).  Some governors will probably be slower to end them.  Also have to keep in mind that the big box stores, etc. have their own mask rules, so there could be some inconsistencies even as the governors pull back.

The sociological aspect of all this will be fascinating to watch.  Once the mandates end, will some people choose to continue to wear one?  Also, if cases start to rise again after the mask mandates end, will there be a quick reaction by governors to do another mask mandate or will they ride it out?

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