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March Banter 2020


George BM
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41 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Actually, it looks like the death rate from corona is MUCH higher than the death rate in the flu study that you posted.  

Their Flu death rate from 13/14 to 16/17 was 1.3%, which is in line with the death rates from Coronavirus worldwide. Consider that the U.S. Flu death rate is only about 0.1%, so just the Flu itself is about 13 times as deadly in the Italian population.

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2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Their Flu death rate from 13/14 to 16/17 was 1.3%, which is in line with the death rates from Coronavirus worldwide. Consider that the U.S. Flu death rate is only about 0.1%, so just the Flu itself is about 13 times as deadly in the Italian population.

Coronavirus mortality rate right now in Italy is much more than that (8.5%), and they've only had 1-2 million cases of flu per year because the majority of people are vaccinated or have lingering immunities out of a population of 60M. Coronavirus is a novel bug with no population immunities.

Spain is shortly behind Italy right now and about to experience the same thing. As are lots of countries in Europe, and we're not far behind.

Honestly at the end of the day this becomes a raw numbers problem and not a percentage problem. Once you overwhelm hospitals (as you see in those videos I posted), then people are dying not just of COVID but of lots of other things that they can't get treatment for.

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15 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Their Flu death rate from 13/14 to 16/17 was 1.3%, which is in line with the death rates from Coronavirus worldwide. Consider that the U.S. Flu death rate is only about 0.1%, so just the Flu itself is about 13 times as deadly in the Italian population.

You said their “flu deaths in the past decade are not much different than coronavirus.”  Their flu death rate in the study you posted was 1.3%.  Italy’s death rate from Coronavirus has been over 8%.  

And the global death rate from coronavirus is over 3%.  

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Just a FYI: Italy is old AF. It's why their death rates are probably going to be the worst from this AND from other things. 

 

It doesn't mitigate the threat coronavirus poses to all countries, us included though, because the way that coronavirus threatens us is by wrecking healthcare systems.

Novel bugs with no population immunities, even if they are simple flus, are disruptive. When they carry a significant death rate, hospitalization rate, incubation period, it's even worse.

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Despite the old population, Italy still has one of the more advanced medical systems in all of Europe. Furthermore northern Italy is the wealthiest part.

In terms of respiratory viruses such as COVID-19, there's multiple factors that put people at risk aside from age. One is obesity, and well, if you take a look around this country, we've got plenty of that to go around, which doesn't boast well for rapidly spreading cases. I'm still rather confused at this comparison to the flu. The concern is with how fast COVID-19 spreads from person to person. Each carrier of the flu spreads it to on average 1.3 people, meanwhile each carrier of COVID-19 spreads it to 2.5 people on average. Not to mention the higher fatality rate. Italy having 300+ deaths per day would be much worse than any flu day even in the United States. Furthermore there methods of flu treatment are much more effective, and even if not entirely effective for the majority of the population, we have a vaccination for the flu. You can't even compare the two whatsoever

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24 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

You said their “flu deaths in the past decade are not much different than coronavirus.”  Their flu death rate in the study you posted was 1.3%.  Italy’s death rate from Coronavirus has been over 8%.  

And the global death rate from coronavirus is over 3%.  

Not sure why some people continue to insist on making this comparison. It is what it is. Let em have at it if it helps them feel better.

Yup, they are exactly the same, in one's  own truthiness I suppose. I give up.

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Despite the old population, Italy still has one of the more advanced medical systems in all of Europe. Furthermore northern Italy is the wealthiest part.

In terms of respiratory viruses such as COVID-19, there's multiple factors that put people at risk aside from age. One is obesity, and well, if you take a look around this country, we've got plenty of that to go around, which doesn't boast well for rapidly spreading cases. I'm still rather confused at this comparison to the flu. The concern is with how fast COVID-19 spreads from person to person. Each carrier of the flu spreads it to on average 1.3 people, meanwhile each carrier of COVID-19 spreads it to 2.5 people on average. Not to mention the higher fatality rate. Italy having 300+ deaths per day would be much worse than any flu day even in the United States. Furthermore there methods of flu treatment are much more effective, and even if not entirely effective for the majority of the population, we have a vaccination for the flu. You can't even compare the two whatsoever

Yet people here and elsewhere keep doing it and I can’t for the life of me think of why.

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Yet people here and elsewhere keep doing it and I can’t for the life of me think of why.

It reminds me of a quote I heard a little while back. Don't remember exactly how it goes but it was something like "Preparations before a plague seem alarmist, while preparations during/after a plague seem inadequate", and I mean I guess I see why people would object to what we're doing for COVID-19 if something like the flu can be terrible, but they're two different animals. Hospitals don't get as overwhelmed by the flu as they have in certain areas as COVID-19. Not to mention how it'll leave many with permanent respiratory problems. Also it's funny to see people compare this to the late 2000s Swine Flu. At this point in the outbreak the Swine Flu had 1500 deaths, somewhat close to a tenth of what we've already seen with COVID-19. 

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I’ve struggled with how to react to all of this, but I think it’s fair to say we all handle it differently. I do fall on side that feels I should be able to make my trips to store and take my own risk, but the guilt and fact can’t trust any of the data right now has me being cautious to not offend or escalate situation

I will say this this is a topic that instead of debating with each other we should just listen to each other’s views and truly respect it. So often we try to push our beliefs on folks like we got this all figured it out. It be much better place if we just said here’s where I’m at, but also look to understand each others perspective so we accommodate each other instead of trying to influence 

 

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Folks must realize the steps in place are being done to ensure we dont turn into the next Italy. Further, by doing this, we're able to keep essential businesses open. Keep the pipeline of goods flowing. Ya know, the stuff we absolutely need. No doubt the impact on businesses will be massive. 

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Wth?  Are these people stupid?

I know we don’t want government to compel behavior, but at some point it has to step in and stop this stuff.  Going to work or a grocery store is one thing.  Gathering en masse to look at trees, as beautiful as they are, is quite a different story.  

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8 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I know we don’t want government to compel behavior, but at some point it has to step in and stop this stuff.  Going to work or a grocery store is one thing.  Gathering en masse to look at trees, as beautiful as they are, is quite a different story.  

It’s the same reason we have to have moderators here in the winter. B)

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Hope all those with kids are ready for schools to be out till at least May... DCPS is closed till April 27th at the earliest now. 

Not trying to make fun of any parents or anything... just saying get ready for more staying at home trying to entertain them once school work goes by the wayside

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Hope all those with kids are ready for schools to be out till at least May... DCPS is closed till April 27th at the earliest now. 

Not trying to make fun of any parents or anything... just saying get ready for more staying at home trying to entertain them once school work goes by the wayside

Yep.  I expect schools to be out until next Fall.  

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