C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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6 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Lots and lots of blooming going on around DC right now. Strong sun. Really felt like Spring out there today.

You guys are really way ahead of spring schedule. So are we down in S Cen TX, 2 foot high grass in places, blooming, and leafout gettin underway! We've mowed the lawn TWICE already!

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WB 6z....trend north stopped for now.  Surface temps actually cooler than 0Z, but less precipitation.  GEFS support at 18Z yesterday has evaporated.

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Shame about late tomorrow into Saturday. The timing is just a little off. That storm is not that far off from actually being something for our region. Have generally seen some minor adjustments with the trough and heights in front of it the last couple of days that have improved the look somewhat though not nearly enough. Last nights run of the CMC actually had me going hmmmm..... for a moment. As it is, looking at the CMC would probably be suggestive of at least some flakes in the air for the area if not even a mulch covering/inch N/W of the cities tomorrow evening. 

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39 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Shame about late tomorrow into Saturday. The timing is just a little off. That storm is not that far off from actually being something for our region. Have generally seen some minor adjustments with the trough and heights in front of it the last couple of days that have improved the look somewhat though not nearly enough. Last nights run of the CMC actually had me going hmmmm..... for a moment. As it is, looking at the CMC would probably be suggestive of at least some flakes in the air for the area if not even a mulch covering/inch N/W of the cities tomorrow evening. 

Yea...I spoke about Friday night in the other thread since it's short range but your right it's real close but probably a miss . I still see evidence of possible Inverted trough or similar on some guidance so there's that unknown.  Here's that CMC you mentioned.  That 500 534dm closed contour isn't that far off OC :D

Btw...just ride the Hdrps...it gives you 2-3"

gem_z500_vort_eus_9.png

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Just got a chance to look somewhat on the models after taking a break with a casino trip. After looking over them I will officially go on the record to say that I am mildly interested in the potential from possibly 6 days and out through the extended. What we are seeing is an active pattern with some decent indications of the potential of lows training through the 50/50 region. Not really seeing indications of blocking so we are probably talking transient 50/50's. at best That being the case we would be talking about timing with any follow up energy driving into the east. Now getting the timing can be a difficult task (not to mention we have to get the temps to be agreeable) but if we can get several shots at it you just never know. 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...I spoke about Friday night in the other thread since it's short range but your right it's real close but probably a miss . I still see evidence of possible Inverted trough or similar on some guidance so there's that unknown.  Here's that CMC you mentioned.  That 500 534dm closed contour isn't that far off OC :D

Btw...just ride the Hdrps...it gives you 2-3"

gem_z500_vort_eus_9.png

The setup pretty much argues for an inverted trough somewhere through the general region though it probably favors to the north and east. For those that can possibly get underneath it they probably have a decent shot. Right now the temps look to be agreeable from 925 mbs and up. It's just the underneath it to the surface which is the sticking point. Get some rates and chances are good it can overcome that low level warmth. Know the CMC favors to the N/W of the cities at this time for the possibility of accumulating snow but I would not be surprised whatsoever if what we end up with calls of NE MD pummeling (if you consider an inch or two a pummeling. :) )

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7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Looking over BWI records...this would only be the fourth time on record that we've failed to crack the 2 inch mark. If we fail to get anymore this winter, then two of those times would have happened within the last 10 years, smh (the other time was 1972-73 where we only got 1.2 inches)

Knowing general probabilities is good for setting realistic long term expectations but useless for making shorter term forecasts.  For instance we know if we flip a coin 1000 times you will likely get about 500 heads. But within that there can be a run of tails. The long term trends don’t help predict each specific flip. Our snowfall has a lot of randomness. Over the long run it will even out but year to year using those probabilities is dangerous. 

Once we are in a specific pattern looking at analogs to that pattern is more indicative of expectations than the overall probabilities for all years.  Yes it’s rare to get really low snowfall like this overall BUT the analogs to this pattern have some of our worst snowfall years. Plus many of those years what little snow we got cake early before this pattern set in sometime in January. We had a few chances at that but mostly missed. Most of the analogs had very little or no snow the rest of winter once this pattern set in. So that data set is more useful and more pessimistic than the long term general probabilities. 

I will end on the positive that a couple of the analogs did luck into a snow in March. Not the majority but enough to say it’s possible. History suggests the chances for snow in years like this are early before the dominant winter longwave pattern sets in and very late as short wavelengths creates added chaos. 

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28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gotta go pull some wire :Dbut 6z Euro actually looks a bit better at h5 for Friday evening . More qpf as well

More like laying some cable.

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The inv trough has been the only thing worth keeping an eye on for a while with that. But that will be a meso scale feature guidance can’t pin down any more than the details on a line of thunderstorms from range. 

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48 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

More like laying some cable.

 

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I prefer laying pipe on the weekends:D

Y’all are right at the sun. Flying almost too close.  Watch it suckers. 

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I prefer laying pipe on the weekends:D

Short pipe is such a pain to lay. 

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I am SOOOO shocked the GFS shifted north to look like everything else...(actually its still south just not as crazy stupid south of all other guidance). 

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I am SOOOO shocked the GFS shifted north to look like everything else...(actually its still south just not as crazy stupid south of all other guidance). 
Looks like our tracking season is over
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8 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:
I am SOOOO shocked the GFS shifted north to look like everything else...(actually its still south just not as crazy stupid south of all other guidance). 

Looks like our tracking season is over

Probably...but there is a parade of systems in the long range, and the longwave pattern looks fairly volatile (not uncommon for March) all it would take is to get one to act as a 50/50 and time another one up and maybe.  So its not a total no hope pattern, but I certainly wouldn't expect anything.  

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Another legit snow headed this way tomorrow -- NWS Pit calling for 4-8" and NWS CRW calling for 5-10"

I know I've been harping on how our scarce snows this year seem to be timing out for weekenders well, but this is amazing.   One more good ski weekend (at least).

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40 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Another legit snow headed this way tomorrow -- NWS Pit calling for 4-8" and NWS CRW calling for 5-10"

I know I've been harping on how our scarce snows this year seem to be timing out for weekenders well, but this is amazing.   One more good ski weekend (at least).

Yes, it is amazing.  I was up at Whitegrass this past weekend the skiing was excellent, although snow was melting fast on Sunday.  Another great storm coming your way!

 

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2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

70s Monday?

 

Yes. Flakes with 70s 2 days later? Seems about March. 

 

80s showed up for the first time LR GFS. If only....

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10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Long range gfs has been a tease lately. 

 

Scand blocking coming up it seems, not  - NAO depiction though. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Just looked at the 12z Gefs and there is a signal for a possible sw getting south of  us and even cutting off centered on day 7 . Not a big signal but it's there. 

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29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked at the 12z Gefs and there is a signal for a possible sw getting south of  us and even cutting off centered on day 7 . Not a big signal but it's there. 

Cutoff lows can be fun. The later we get the more elevation dependent they become. There was one in April of 1987 that dumped 30” inches on us down in swva. It literally snowed for 4 days.

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked at the 12z Gefs and there is a signal for a possible sw getting south of  us and even cutting off centered on day 7 . Not a big signal but it's there. 

Again with the GEFS...lol The few times the GFS or GEFS shows a morsel of hope the Euro/Eps comes in and says "Nope!"

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Gfs gets a brief period of snow in here next weekend.  Actually h5 is radically different then previous runs once past day 6/7. It is an op run but still.  By hr 240 almost looks like it's trying to rotate a piece of the pv down towards the conus 

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11 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Cutoff lows can be fun. The later we get the more elevation dependent they become. There was one in April of 1987 that dumped 30” inches on us down in swva. It literally snowed for 4 days.

This.

I have been sayin this all winter, The Washington DC Metropolitan Region will get shellacked by snow this low sun season.

This is when it will happen, and it will be one to remember. You will be telling your grandkids about it.

It will be highly anomalous and it will absolutely destroy the DC Region with snow. It will be a total assault.

At the same exact time where I am, in Austin, TX, it will be 88 degrees with 68 dewpoints. I will love it, because I will go thru any hot humid weather so that DC can have tremendous anomalous snows and cold. I love DC so damned much, I'd happily go thru 105 degrees and 84 degree dewpoints in March here in Austin so that DC can have a once in 10000 year snow and cold! I would go thru ANYTHING for you guys in DC! I spent 55 years in that region!

You can take this one directly to the bank. Get those Jebman Shovels ready. Whatever it is that you drink to stay awake, you better stock up, because you are all gonna be doing some major-league model tracking!

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