C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

6Z EPS.  Nice uptick!!!!  About 12 solid hits.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_ge_3-3539200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-3539200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-3539200.png

Too all or nothing for me....typically the nothing happens but we'll see in the coming hours how today goes

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One thing that is encouraging up to this point is that things have trended in a positive way over the last 48 hrs basically across all guidance. Which goes against the trend this winter. Famous last words. Hope 12z doesn't lay an egg. 

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4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

One thing that is encouraging up to this point is that things have trended in a positive way over the last 48 hrs basically across all guidance. Which goes against the trend this winter. Famous last words. Hope 12z doesn't lay an egg. 

Agreed.  Let's see if this is a trend in the right direction or just a blip.  25% chance on EPS 4-5 days out is good for us this winter, but that does not mean it snows.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's amazing. But totally believable this year.

528 is the new 540.  Although I would imagine if the column crashes have 528 would be a nice step towards actually seeing snow especially in March. 

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Euro looking diggy with the ns so far...

Its slightly further east 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is such a great setup that I don’t even know when we are talking about.

the Feb 2006 Feb MECS didnt show up on the models in a good way till Wednesday noon(JMA started first) and then it snowed Saturday. So ill give up on on it Wednesday night

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

the Feb 2006 Feb MECS didnt show up on the models in a good way till Wednesday noon(JMA started first) and then it snowed Saturday. So ill give up on on it Wednesday night

You knew this was how it was going to go...trend better for 3 days until we just needed one more bump in our favor to be looking good...and then it would start to slide the wrong way.  

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That phenomenon isnt just the gods toying with us though imo....there are always going to be adjustments from long range and trends one way and another...but when we start off so far from good...its likely when there are good trends they won't get there for us...they will simply make the miss look closer for a time before slipping away again.  

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That phenomenon isnt just the gods toying with us though imo....there are always going to be adjustments from long range and trends one way and another...but when we start off so far from good...its likely when there are good trends they won't get there for us...they will simply make the miss look closer for a time before slipping away again.  

look when southern sliders trend as far North as Fredricksburg...then end up missing Richmond to the south?

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

look when southern sliders trend as far North as Fredricksburg...then end up missing Richmond to the south?

The storm you are talking about never looked good for us...it was obvious it was going to stay to our south from 5 days out.  

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One thing to keep an eye on...all guidance is hinting at an inverted trough feature associated with this system.  Those are incredibly difficult for guidance to resolve at range...and those can sometimes produce some fluky results, especially in spring.  The palm sunday blizzard being the ultimate example.  It's one thing that could lead to a surprise somewhere and worth at least watching for.  

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12z EPS looks better wrt SLP, H5, qpf, but the snowfall is pretty much identical...seems to be because some of the really amped solutions are rain.  

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