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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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Yea Eps definitely keeps the door cracked open for Friday. A sizable # of members give 2 inch+ to parts of  the forum(around 14 east of the Apps)  With a solid 5 days out still worth tracking any positive changes imo. 

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ICON has trended positively its last three runs for the Friday threat. It has been the most disjointed over the last 24 hrs. Now develops a coastal and get's snow into interior new England. 

Through 72 hrs on 0z GFS SS system is slightly further north/west while NS is further south. 

IMO we want the SS to slow down in order for the northern stream to catch it, phase and pull it up the coast before going out to sea. 

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6z GFS continued improvement for Friday to this untrained eye.  Cold as always is the big issue as I see it

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z GFS continued improvement for Friday to this untrained eye.  Cold as always is the big issue as I see it

Agreed. Better look at h5. Trough is further west. Close to something better. Been trending the right way for like 7 runs in a row now. That’s something we haven’t seen all year. 

 It’s march. I’ve seen flakes falling from the sky like 3 times all year. I don’t care about 3”. My bar for any storm at this point is seeing flakes falling from the sky. Also, half the fun for me is tracking. And it looks like we might actually have something to track this week! 

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Didn't get a chance to look at Gefs but I liked the change at h5 in with the  Eps . It has the ns sw diving a bit further south and west and  earlier. That's what we want to see .

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

6z GFS continued improvement for Friday to this untrained eye.  Cold as always is the big issue as I see it

The biggest issue is any phasing appears to occur well offshore. Even the CMC trended that way. Still some time, but given the progressive nature of the flow, probably not happening.

We will get our wind though.

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march 10-day threats? lol good luck with that. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Didn't get a chance to look at Gefs but I liked the change at h5 in with the  Eps . It has the ns sw diving a bit further south and west and  earlier. That's what we want to see .

Looks like 06z continues the trend...getting close to some interaction with the ss wave on the latest run.  Maybe this is a long shot but it will keep me interested as long as we keep seeing baby steps.  If we can start to see the 2 interact just a little bit I would think we may see the ns dive further south as a result.

PvYKEco.jpg

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march 10-day threats? lol good luck with that. 
The 93 storm was nailed 10 days out
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49 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The biggest issue is any phasing appears to occur well offshore. Even the CMC trended that way. Still some time, but given the progressive nature of the flow, probably not happening.

We will get our wind though.

Cape Cod crush job incoming. 

Maybe the wind can blow the moss of my trees.  So wet, even after the recent dry several days.

Meanwhile, the last 30 day AO state and amplitude suggests a warm March. 

The CPC recently updated the 30 day outlook to mild across wide areas of the country for March.   So, for now the focus becomes what of April?  Some analogs suggest a cooler April after a mild March.  Personally bring me dryness and sun in April and no eternal 15 days in a row of dark depressing cloudy days.   

    

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