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Chicago Storm

Mid-week potential of something somewhere

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17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Gefs wetter

Oh the Op GFS is the easiest toss ever. We need to go back to the AVN model.

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Mix of rain and snow currently in Toledo.  Radar looking like we will stay in snow for the next 20 hours, albeit light to moderate for the most part.  Too bad our antecedent conditions weren't colder, otherwise this would be much different.  

 

Felt bad saying that after what those out west have dealt with over the past 24 hours.  Sorry guys.  

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33 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Oh the Op GFS is the easiest toss ever. We need to go back to the AVN model.

Honestly as cyclone said the other day, take this gfs to the woodshed. Cut the losses. It's a whole new level of ineptitude. It has a cold bias, yet storms track 500 miles south as they close in. That alone doesnt make sense.

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40 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Saw about 2 flakes leaving work a bit ago.  That was the extent of the storm system for here.  What a joke.

It's been snowing here off and on all day. Still no accumulation. Lol. This band pivoting over me is probably dumping at .000000001 in/hr

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12 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Enjoy.

1341ECB2-4D2C-4CC9-AF1E-A8D02F728BF5.jpeg

5131D09B-9B18-4ED4-ABBF-52531CC16E48.jpeg

Similar look where I’m at. Grass is about covered and roads and sidewalks have about an inch of slop. We also had flurries/snow since late morning although just recently started accumulating. It’s still February so I’ll take the mood snow.

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4 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Latest HRRR has ~8” in Toronto by 6z Thurs and still snowing. Heaviest amounts centred from Hamilton to Oshawa including Toronto.

Feeling more confident with 6-10”.

Late February 1984 in Toronto. Some similarities. Temperatures in the low 50s Fahrenheit on the 23rd-24th, followed by 36. 4 cm (14-15") of snow on 27th-28th, followed by temperatures in the 20s to end the month.

February 1984.PNG

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21 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm going with 6-8"

Fair enough.  Under 6" is probably debbie-downer territory given this sampling of 18z models (Kuchera):

18z GFS = 11.7"
18Z NAM = 7.7"
18Z 3k NAM = 8.9"
18Z RGEM = 6.3"

 

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5 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Late February 1984 in Toronto. Some similarities. Temperatures in the low 50s Fahrenheit on the 23rd-24th, followed by 36. 4 cm (14-15") of snow on 27th-28th, followed by temperatures in the 20s to end the month.

February 1984.PNG

That was a much more impressive storm though:

022900.png

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Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

That was a much more impressive storm though:

022900.png

This is kind of a poor mans version for sure, I would say this had the potential to be a wrapped up biggie like that in that location even.

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I got .85" on my measurement for this mornings wave, official airport recording was .8"

 

Calling for 2-3" tonight, I told most to wxpect 1 1/2 or less, excluding the morning snow which would melt off, and did.

 

I'll give winter until Palm Sunday to show itself, after that I am Spring or bust.

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40 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Late February 1984 in Toronto. Some similarities. Temperatures in the low 50s Fahrenheit on the 23rd-24th, followed by 36. 4 cm (14-15") of snow on 27th-28th, followed by temperatures in the 20s to end the month.

February 1984.PNG

I like how you didn't use YYZ. It was a 5" storm at YYZ lol. Seems like a WNY special. I don't think there's any radar reanalysis maps that go back that far. 

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Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

HRRRGL_prec_kuchsnow_036.png

 

And, allow me....  :weenie:

HRRR has been solid this year. 

Back to back winters with a footer? I say we do it. If we see 12", it'll be the snowiest winter since 08-09 at YYZ haha. 

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2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

HRRR has been solid this year. 

Back to back winters with a footer? I say we do it. If we see 12", it'll be the snowiest winter since 08-09 at YYZ haha. 

RAP and HRRR have value, but when they run out to 36 hours it's sort of their clown range.  I wouldn't bite on anything like that yet.  

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Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

RAP and HRRR have value, but when they run out to 36 hours it's sort of their clown range.  I wouldn't bite on anything like that yet.  

Fair point.

Let's see if NAM 3km and RGEM are in the same ballpark as HRRR. 

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Already 32° here by Toledo. I think the weather people were off and misleading on their 2-4” in the local area. Column has already cooled considerably, I think 5-6” is going to be the number for the majority of the area

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