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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ahahaha... 

word

In my own proclivities to lament the futility of winter as February's age on are only new to new users, I can honestly say, if this all went 82 F until next October 10th, I couldn't be happier.  I mean, don't folks get enough abuse?  haha... But I'm still not sold that we won't get a cruel reminder here a couple of times over the next three weeks - it looks shaky now, but I feel my arguments around late season climo for blocking is clad enough that with an AO that is easing down, there's possibilities. 

I wouldn't mind snow/cold into April...I mean the last time that happened we had a monster severe wx outbreak only a month later. 2018 was wild...I think we even had snow showers down in Danbury around mid-April.

I've always wondered this (I think I kinda had done some research with this a while back) but I would think we stand a better chance of having an active/early start to convective season if we're colder deeper into spring. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's plenty... Under the right conditions, sure it is. 

In fact, routinely on radiatively cold mornings at mi casa ... I leave the driveway in the valley at dawn ...it may be 22 F on the dash therm, and as I wend my way through Devens...the elevation changes by 30 or 40 feet, and it'll be 27 F... then, back down to 23 F at the Nashua River ...sometimes with ground fog, then back to 31 F out west toward 190 S.

thanks. I was thinking my Davis temp sensor was off. It's an old unit (16yr)

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12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't mind snow/cold into April...I mean the last time that happened we had a monster severe wx outbreak only a month later. 2018 was wild...I think we even had snow showers down in Danbury around mid-April.

I've always wondered this (I think I kinda had done some research with this a while back) but I would think we stand a better chance of having an active/early start to convective season if we're colder deeper into spring. 

Heh... no thanks.  

More power to you :) but ... we can have a severe rare events here regardless - I realize you're being partially tongue-in-cheek, but goes without saying, snowing on April 7 doesn't mean anything to a lightning bold on May 10 ... 

Unfortunately, there is no 'want' or fulfillment therein in this climate up here.  We kind of have a "geological tuck" circumstance over eastern N/A really... Particularly N of the Va Capes (roughly) and all over eastern Canada and the Maritimes down through New England. The normal torque budget of the wind has a built in anti-cyclonic curl that's always there, ... offering a folding force that wants the flow to bend N ... and NE at least excuse.  It's probably why we BD so frequently here... we can drill it into small scale causality...and be right - but technically, that foundation is sort of there because the prevailing N-hemispheric westerlies naturally want to turn anti-cyclonically around the continents... The have the same issue in eastern Asia/Japan, too... The flows in these regions rise up (tendency ) in latitude as they encounter the land, then...around a flattish arc and that tendency then descends upon exit.  SO anything that happens inside there has that constructive (destructive) interference going on relative to the small details taking place.   They don't backdoor in Seattle or San Francisco nearly as frequently for a reason... 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... no thanks.  

More power to you :) but ... we can have a severe rare events here regardless - I realize you're being partially tongue-in-cheek, but goes without saying, snowing on April 7 doesn't mean anything to a lightning bold on May 10 ... 

Unfortunately, there is no 'want' or fulfillment therein in this climate up here.  We kind of have a "geological tuck" circumstance over eastern N/A really... Particularly N of the Va Capes (roughly) and all over eastern Canada and the Maritimes down through New England. The normal torque budget of the wind has a built in anti-cyclonic curl that's always there, ... offering a folding force that wants the flow to bend N ... and NE at least excuse.  It's probably why we BD so frequently here... we can drill it into small scale causality...and be right - but technically, that foundation is sort of there because the prevailing N-hemispheric westerlies naturally want to turn anti-cyclonically around the continents... The have the same issue in eastern Asia/Japan, too... The flows in these regions rise up (tendency ) in latitude as they encounter the land, then...around a flattish arc and that tendency then descends upon exit.  SO anything that happens inside there has that constructive (destructive) interference going on relative to the small details taking place.   

That's a very good point..and further emphasizes the reasoning of why we BD more frequently during the transition seasons. 

Very interesting too about eastern Asia/Japan...that would probably explain why that area is a major area of interest for those who monitor MT?

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15 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

thanks. I was thinking my Davis temp sensor was off. It's an old unit (16yr)

Could be that too. 16yrs is a long time and those older sensors lose quite a bit of accuracy as you get near and below 0F. 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's a very good point..and further emphasizes the reasoning of why we BD more frequently during the transition seasons. 

Very interesting too about eastern Asia/Japan...that would probably explain why that area is a major area of interest for those who monitor MT?

OH I don't know... I just know that the WPO is partially motivated into index changes by the torque budget and the flow orientation coming off the massive Asian continent - which can be a bit complex with several massive mountain cordilleras and what have us completely destroying any laminar flow types at planetary scales... yikes!  But, the flow still tends to be NW in the N. Japan Sea and there are big winter storms and NE plume loading in north Japan ... origin roughly Kamchatka/far eastern Siberia...  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH I don't know... I just know that the WPO is partially motivated into index changes by the torque budget and the flow orientation coming off the massive Asian continent - which can be a bit complex with several massive mountain cordilleras and what have us completely destroying any laminar flow types at planetary scales... yikes!  But, the flow still tends to be NW in the N. Japan Sea and there are big winter storms and NE plume loading in north Japan ... origin roughly Kamchatka/far eastern Siberia...  

That's a part of the glob where I would really like to focus on more weather wise. I think having a strong understanding/background on how short-term weather is performing across this area of the globe (this includes how the jet is behaving) can significantly increase medium (maybe even into the long-term spectrum...depending on what your definition is separating medium/long-term) range weather forecasting across the CONUS. 

But the WPO is a great place to start...I've been thinking of doing alot of stuff with NAO/AO...but I kinda want to revert and focus more on the western Pacific region. Isn't there some sort of (strong) correlation between behavior of the jet there and how it will respond here (like a 10-14...or 14-18 day lag)? Low  east Asian MT anomalies/AAM anomalies eventually result in low Rocky mountain MT/AAM anomalies down the road = trough digging through the west?

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's a part of the glob where I would really like to focus on more weather wise. I think having a strong understanding/background on how short-term weather is performing across this area of the globe (this includes how the jet is behaving) can significantly increase medium (maybe even into the long-term spectrum...depending on what your definition is separating medium/long-term) range weather forecasting across the CONUS. 

But the WPO is a great place to start...I've been thinking of doing alot of stuff with NAO/AO...but I kinda want to revert and focus more on the western Pacific region. Isn't there some sort of (strong) correlation between behavior of the jet there and how it will respond here (like a 10-14...or 14-18 day lag)? Low  east Asian MT anomalies/AAM anomalies eventually result in low Rocky mountain MT/AAM anomalies down the road = trough digging through the west?

I believe so... I've had better personal success anticipating Pacific circulation tendencies by considering whether the WPO --> EPO ( circuited through the northern arc of the total basin space obviously ) with time lags.   I've seen these bigger negative EPO index progs, fail more times when the WPO was positive ...and vice versa ( succeeds ) when the WPO was falling and slipped negative ( or even just falling is usually good enough), first.  I mean like everything in correlation and causality in this atmospheric maelstrom, there's exceptions and there are no 1::1 between indices... But, the stronger correlations tend to have a kind of "connective tissue" like that.  etc.... It's like a recurving Atlantic hurricane season lends to +NAO state in early winter as Lance Bozart et al statistically showed years ago - the link there is a the dumping of latent heat into the Icelandic low tend to curl up into the lower arctic domain and you end up that way... There's all kinds of these loaders around -   ...If the WPO tanks obviously negative and lasts ... I take an NP/EPO downward modulation more seriously than if these latter attempt to do so without the leading WPO is all - ... but I don't ignore them altogether for that lower percentage occurrence(s). 

Heh...just jugglin' the indices

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you stop lifting.Guess what.  The muscle turns to jello

And when you keep running the knees turn into meh..

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

And when you keep running the knees turn into meh..

Yeah there is a fine line. I know runners who went to shit from running too much. In 10 years we’ll be looking for a more handicap accessible GTG because Kevin’s cartilage is chalk dust. 

  • Haha 6

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I believe so... I've had better personal success anticipating Pacific circulation tendencies by considering whether the WPO --> EPO ( circuited through the northern arc of the total basin space obviously ) with time lags.   I've seen these bigger negative EPO index progs, fail more times when the WPO was positive ...and vice versa ( succeeds ) when the WPO was falling and slipped negative ( or even just falling is usually good enough), first.  I mean like everything in correlation and causality in this atmospheric maelstrom, there's exceptions and there are no 1::1 between indices... But, the stronger correlations tend to have a kind of "connective tissue" like that.  etc.... It's like a recurving Atlantic hurricane season lends to +NAO state in early winter as Lance Bozart et al statistically showed years ago - the link there is a the dumping of latent heat into the Icelandic low tend to curl up into the lower arctic domain and you end up that way... There's all kinds of these loaders around -   ...If the WPO tanks obviously negative and lasts ... I take an NP/EPO downward modulation more seriously than if these latter attempt to do so without the leading WPO is all - ... but I don't ignore them altogether for that lower percentage occurrence(s)

I remember too a while back reading some research into how there seems to be a pretty decent link between how these Pacific teleconnectors evolve and Atlantic teleconnectors, however, there were some major questions/lack of understanding...some believed if that understanding could be solved we could long-range forecast with great accuracy. 

There is also this one index...I think it's the Pacific-Transition (PT)...it's like a fall signal with data only available between Sept - Nov or maybe Sept - Dec...but some research showed a very high correlation to the fall phase of this index and winter pattern over the CONUS. 

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13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Someone needs a climo lesson 

It's certainly different but it's not THAT different. Not like we're comparing NE to the lower Mid-Atlantic or BOS -DCA. There's a big difference there obviously.

 

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boston's snow climo is twice that of NYC.

I respect your opinion, knowledge and work you put behind your forecasts but that's just plain wrong. It's not twice the amount of NYC. More, yes. But not double

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9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

And when you keep running the knees turn into meh..

You just mix it up... 

Problem is obvious; everyone dies and there is end to all this that is inexorable, and knees are part of that, ...as is everything in the body... the sun and planets..etc.  But, we can conserve things and make them last longer and get more enjoyment out of the journey, if we employ some common sense and modulation based on science and personal limitation and so forth. 

Example, I figured out that if I Elliptical for 50 minutes at level 14 on day one, then on day two ... stationary bike for 50 minutest at level 10, then day three...run 4 1/2 miles... by day four, I can Elliptical again because it's been four days since I did and those particular muscle aren't bitching about it...  SO, I take a day off every ten days or so, but otherwise, this rotation with some light free-weight work and abs, keeps my weight down under 200 and that feeds back to helping joints and so forth from that wear and tear.  And everything else is improved under the hood with also a willingness to explore healthier dietary sourcing... blah blah... not intending to preach...But, we should all be determining what our personal bio-physiological limitations are, and working to just below that level - anything else is bullshit, unless you are chained up in a dungeon.  

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3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It's certainly different but it's not THAT different. Not like we're comparing NE to the lower Mid-Atlantic or BOS -DCA. There's a big difference there obviously.

 

I respect your opinion, knowledge and work you put behind your forecasts but that's just plain wrong. It's not twice the amount of NYC. More, yes. But not double

It's pretty dang close to double. Boston is well up in the 40's to probably around 50. NYC is somewhere in the mid 20's

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It's pretty dang close to double. Boston is well up in the 40's to probably around 50. NYC is somewhere in the mid 20's

If you are going by official first order climate site, then BOS is not double....NYC is 25.1" and BOS is 43.8" for the 1981-2010 normals.

If you go by general metro area, then it's probably close to double. The general metro area of BOS is almost completely west of the climate site at Logan, so their snowfall is going to be skewed a lot higher than NYC's general metro area.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's pretty dang close to double. Boston is well up in the 40's to probably around 50. NYC is somewhere in the mid 20's

NYC is 27

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I think NYC needed a specific amount this year to raise their 30 year average to 30.

NYC is so vast the snowfall amounts in the City itself vary a lot.

Coastal Brooklyn is probably closer to 22 while the Bronx around 30.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you are going by official first order climate site, then BOS is not double....NYC is 25.1" and BOS is 43.8" for the 1981-2010 normals.

If you go by general metro area, then it's probably close to double. The general metro area of BOS is almost completely west of the climate site at Logan, so their snowfall is going to be skewed a lot higher than NYC's general metro area.

yeah definitely depending on what the reference location is...although I thought BOS was a bit higher. But Ray wasn't flat out wrong in that saying that...plus I'm pretty sure Ray was going by general metro area 

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Did anyone come close on their seasonal snowfall forecast for New England? I know Isotherm nailed the pattern perfectly, however was curious about snowfall (conscious that we still have March).

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure the N/stream is being handled right... I could almost see this thing correcting toward an early Chicago curl as a deep low that then rots and fills over two days spitting lows that run out south of a failed warm frontal cool sector that's "might" be corrected toward greater arming surface pressure over Ontario... That could satisfy the mid latitude R-wave argument that way, too -

Thought about this as well. Obviously now at a point that little can be discounted, but what steers me away from this is the progressive tenor of season as well as the teleconnections AND global guidance, which all point to this thing chugging along—not racing,  but certainly not your bowling ball-esque type evolution. Yes we have robust amplitudes, but she will be moving...

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13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did anyone come close on their seasonal snowfall forecast for New England? I know Isotherm nailed the pattern perfectly, however was curious about snowfall (conscious that we still have March).

When winter is over, we’ll have a looksy.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah definitely depending on what the reference location is...although I thought BOS was a bit higher. But Ray wasn't flat out wrong in that saying that...plus I'm pretty sure Ray was going by general metro area 

Yeah I mean...you can kind of compare the different regions....the Paramus/Ridgewood/Paterson zone would be about the equivalent to the Bedford to Reading area in relation to BOS. I think those areas of NJ average probably low 30s while Bedford to Reading is around 60 inches...so mabye slightly less than double. You go further inland up into like Wantage NJ, thats about the same distance/direction to New Ipswich, NH and similar elevations over 1000 feet. Again, probably a bit less than double (low to mid 40s vs 80ish). Due west around 40 miles at similar elevation might be some place like Chester, NJ vs ORH....that's prob mid/upper 30s against 70ish.

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29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah definitely depending on what the reference location is...although I thought BOS was a bit higher. But Ray wasn't flat out wrong in that saying that...plus I'm pretty sure Ray was going by general metro area 

The general area of Boston (north of the Pike and west of 95) is def a lot more then similar areas around NYC (mainly NJ). Coastal areas south of the Pike are pretty similar however IMO

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That look next week is probably the tastiest we’ve seen since the new year. Hopefully we can cash in at least.

Fixed

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Just now, dryslot said:

Nice blizzard hr 300 on the 12z GFS.........lol

Showed something similar on the 6z.  Way better than the cutters showing up 2 days ago.  I'll be up in NNE the 1st-8th so I will be keeping an eye on this.  

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