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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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16 minutes ago, Ji said:
37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15.

Yep...euro shows all blue in the same areas that we talk about the ridge bridge smh

Had some hopes for that Ridge Bridge to defray some of the suckage. But alas, that was just another pipe dream.

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10 hours ago, benjammin said:

Keweenaw County in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, that little jut of land surrounded by Lake Superior. Other than the West that's where the snow is. 

Calumet
(Tamarack loc.)

Day: 1.9
Season: 231.8
On Ground: 47

That's where I plan on retiring to.

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Not a bad CAD signal on the Gfs Sunday morning.  Coming off lows around 10-15 Saturday morning.  Not a slouch airmass . Precip doesn't slide in till the afternoon but something to keep an eye on . 6 days out 

Sunday 12z

 

gfs-deterministic-east-t2m_f-1854400.png

Actually CMC and Gfs have single digit lows n+w fwiw Saturday morning 

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8 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Unfortunately, the precipitation arrives during the afternoon of the following day so the CAD better be stout

Actually same day.. just afternoon . Gfs erodes it quickly . Sunday I'm referring to

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https://m.jpost.com/International/El-Niño-could-hit-at-the-end-of-2020-physicists-warn-612747

El Niño 2020-21 Let's GO! And I don't mean these stupid fake ninos of the last couple years. Bonafide MOD NINO...(but not a super one...might not do us much good, lol)

And I don't care how this is 9 months too early...want long range? Here's your long range! :D:D:P

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Actually same day.. just afternoon . Gfs erodes it quickly . Sunday I'm referring to

Got it - could be close for some of our region

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t think I can remember a year with a more consistent, repetitive storm track

Don't worry.  when May comes around we'll have tons of lows bombing off the coast with rain in the 50s.

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18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t think I can remember a year with a more consistent, repetitive storm track

2011-12 was warm with unrelenting west tracks. Wasn't as wet as this year though iirc. 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

2011-12 was warm with unrelenting west tracks. Wasn't as wet as this year though iirc. 

Okay...so then what happened in the following year? (2012-13) Nina? (looks like that was crappy...but with 8.7 inches instead of 1.8, lol)

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay...so then what happened in the following year? Nina? (looks like that was crappy...but with 8.7 inches instead of 1.8, lol)

It wasn’t too bad. There was snow around Christmas, and I had over 20” in March but don’t remember much in between.

Its also the year @Bob Chill threatened to bring a flamethrower to my yard :lol:

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay...so then what happened in the following year? (2012-13) Nina? (looks like that was crappy...but with 8.7 inches instead of 1.8, lol)

12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. 

The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. 

The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years. 

True...I don't know of a another stretch where you could count on a 12" storm every 3-4 years...and a two-foot every 6-7 years. We had been able to time that with a watch...but, barring a bit of a miracle, it looks like that stretch may end this year...

And I'm well aware of the battle zone...but even around here...a year like this is particularly rough (and now it's been 4 years since the last big one...and we've only had to shovel once in the last 4 years)

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14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

True...I don't know of a another stretch where you could count on a 12" storm every 3-4 years...and a two-foot every 6-7 years. We had been able to time that with a watch...but, barring a bit of a miracle, it looks like that stretch may end this year...

And I'm well aware of the battle zone...but even around here...a year like this is particularly rough (and now it's been 4 years since the last big one...and we've only had to shovel once in the last 4 years)

Just missed 12" last year (at least in the DC area) with that Jan 12-13 storm (10.3" at DCA.) That's shovelable. Southern burbs won out big with that other storm in Dec. as well. 

DCA also had a 4"er in March of 2018. Shovelable too no? (with it being the first day of spring and all, can't recall if it melted in a couple hours or not)

 

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54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. 

The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years. 

Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked?

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked?

Yep, AK vortex stole our hopes and dreams. Even the -3 AO in March 2013 ended up with significant temp problems. Overall the Pac overwhelmed a typical friendly AO/NAO regime. It made up for it bigly in 2013-15 when the Pac overwhelmed a hostile AO/NAO regime. 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked?

Pacific looks terrible there.  

F7982D50-FBE8-4F9F-AAED-F2E3DB1C5286.gif

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Yeah I know. Sometimes I forget to specify my home measuring station of BWI

All good but what were...

BWI amounts 

March 2018?

November 2018 ?

Jan Last year ? 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, AK vortex stole our hopes and dreams. Even the -3 AO in March 2013 ended up with significant temp problems. Overall the Pac overwhelmed a typical friendly AO/NAO regime. It made up for it bigly in 2013-15 when the Pac overwhelmed a hostile AO/NAO regime. 

March 2013 kicked off the best 2 year stretch of weather mby has ever seen.  And by a country mile.

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, AK vortex stole our hopes and dreams. Even the -3 AO in March 2013 ended up with significant temp problems. Overall the Pac overwhelmed a typical friendly AO/NAO regime. It made up for it bigly in 2013-15 when the Pac overwhelmed a hostile AO/NAO regime. 

Funny thing is if you look at the anomalies in Dec 2010 the Pac and Atlantic were not that different from Dec 2012 but the blocking in 2010 was more west based which likely made the difference 

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20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

All good but what were...

BWI amounts 

March 2018?

November 2018 ?

Jan Last year ? 

March 2018: 6.7" (but 3 inches from the storm)

November 2018: 1.7"

January 2019: 7.8" (but only 4.8" from the storm that gave DC a foot)

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I have been trying to find some glimmers of hope in the LR, and the GEFS has been somewhat teasing the idea of some improvement in the Pac with a possible PNA ridge, but I don't like today's run and the GEPS looks even worse. Looking again like this will be another failed attempt, as the more anomalous +heights are already slipping back into the central Pacific by day 15.

EPS has not been enthusiastic at all and has been advertising a stronger AK vortex in the LR. Can see on this panel, 15 days from now, what is running the show. Look familiar? No legit cold even close. Looking more and more like it will be a lucky fluke or bust, maybe in early March.

1582588800-jzqmuhNmtJM.png

 

 

 

 

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