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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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37 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Made it to Bomoseen Vermont! Currently 0 outside! Have about 8 inches of snow on the ground here at the lake. Even here below average season but it looks great! Finally enjoying a winter weekend!

Such a great spot, I went to school at Castleton for a while. Have fun! Did they get the freezing mist other places near there got?

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It's still pretty breezy here, so temp's dropping at a snail's pace... only 8F currently. The HRRR holds that winds will go dead, or close to it, by 2 am. With sunrise before 7 now, that wouldn't leave a ton of wiggle room in the quest for <0F.

It's amazing how some years I need everything to go right for a subzero low, and in others they're a dime a dozen. I think I was pushing 20 nights below zero in 14-15.

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Made it to Bomoseen Vermont! Currently 0 outside! Have about 8 inches of snow on the ground here at the lake. Even here below average season but it looks great! Finally enjoying a winter weekend!

Is there fishable ice? 

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Just got in from Manhattan. Cold but not bitterly so. Ran into Janice Huff in the lower level at 30 Rock....was past her before I thought I should have asked her where all the snow went this year.....not sure she is an actual meteorologist or not.

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Some of us have never experienced subzero temperatures. JFK hasn’t since 1985.

17 here, officially the coldest night of the winter (so far).

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The next 8 days are averaging 35degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is  +7.6[41.6].         Should be +4.8[39.2] by the 23rd.        The last 15 days of February are averaging 36.5degs., or about Normal.     8" of Snow near the 27th.    There was no snow on the three prior runs, however.     February should end near +3.8[39.1].

18* here at 6am.     19* at 7am.   P is 1037.6mb.       21* at 8am.      24* by 10am.      26* by 1pm.        31* by 4pm.

 

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Models are indicating another Niño-like +AAM rise near the end of February and start of March. While it is a warm pattern in late January like we recently experienced, it can offer a +PNA  near the start of March. So this may be our last shot a getting a small snow event to close out the season. But there may not be any guarantees since it will still be combined with the lingering Niña-like Pacific background pattern. 
 

3ECE05EA-81F4-42C8-AA5D-C8B29BC7DE5D.thumb.jpeg.eb72df3dc4bf6fc85958438b951ec1dc.jpeg
 

 


 

 

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At least we can brag that we got some small El Niño-like element to the pattern. The coldest temperature of the season often comes in February during an El Niño. The low of 14 in NYC is officially the coldest of the season. The last time this occurred was was with the super El Niño in 2016 and weaker one in 2015.

Coldest temperature season in NYC

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Jan
Feb
Season
2019-2020 16 20 14 14
2018-2019 24 2 11 2
2017-2018 9 5 16 5
2016-2017 17 14 19 14
2015-2016 34 11 -1 -1
2014-2015 24 8 2 2

6BB3EEDA-0A83-4C02-A0C4-CE3E2D2256CF.png.f76cd78bfce4e66f8eba83f3b7d3ad81.png

 

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4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Currently 6.1, sub zero does not look like it’s happening tonight. In this pattern we may not get another shot at it this season. I can’t even remember the last year we didn’t go below zero. It’s been a long time.  

IMBY going back to 2005 the last winter I didn’t get below zero was ‘16-‘17 when I only made it to 0.  The other winters without any below zero readings are:

’06-‘07

’07-‘08

’09-‘10

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4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Currently 6.1, sub zero does not look like it’s happening tonight. In this pattern we may not get another shot at it this season. I can’t even remember the last year we didn’t go below zero. It’s been a long time.  

The only long term records for SE interior NY appear to be POU. Looks like the last time the seasonal minimum was this high was back in 1998.
 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 1937-04-30 10 4
2 1932-04-30 8 3
3 1998-04-30 6 8
- 1947-04-30 6 0
4 2020-04-30 5 76
- 1953-04-30 5 0
5 2008-04-30 3 0
- 2007-04-30 3 0
- 1944-04-30 3 0
6 2002-04-30 2 0
- 1992-04-30 2 0
7 2012-04-30 1 1
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4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Currently 6.1, sub zero does not look like it’s happening tonight. In this pattern we may not get another shot at it this season. I can’t even remember the last year we didn’t go below zero. It’s been a long time.  

Yeah, no good here. Bottomed out at 2F.

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21 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, no good here. Bottomed out at 2F.

Only made it to 5.1° so not even close. Looks like this will be the first season since I've been keeping temperature records that we don't go below zero. Just wondered if anyone has records in the HV as to the last season we didn't get below zero?

Just saw Bluewaves post above from Poughkeepsie records . Looking at those records it sees like 2007/08 was the last season I didn't get below zero. Another indicator of how absurd the temperatures have been since late December.

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5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Only made it to 5.1° so not even close. Looks like this will be the first season since I've been keeping temperature records that we don't go below zero. Just wondered if anyone has records in the HV as to the last season we didn't get below zero?

Just saw Bluewaves post above from Poughkeepsie records . Looking at those records it sees like 2007/08 was the last season I didn't get below zero. Another indicator of how absurd the temperatures have been since late December.

Like Rob, my last such season was 16-17, so not terribly long ago.

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8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Only made it to 5.1° so not even close. Looks like this will be the first season since I've been keeping temperature records that we don't go below zero. Just wondered if anyone has records in the HV as to the last season we didn't get below zero?

Just saw Bluewaves post above from Poughkeepsie records . Looking at those records it sees like 2007/08 was the last season I didn't get below zero. Another indicator of how absurd the temperatures have been since late December.

I quoted you earlier this morning with my records, see above. 

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19 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Only made it to 5.1° so not even close. Looks like this will be the first season since I've been keeping temperature records that we don't go below zero. Just wondered if anyone has records in the HV as to the last season we didn't get below zero?

Just saw Bluewaves post above from Poughkeepsie records . Looking at those records it sees like 2007/08 was the last season I didn't get below zero. Another indicator of how absurd the temperatures have been since late December.

Seems like the records closer your area only go back to 1998.

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 2020-04-30 5 76
- 1998-04-30 6 95
3 2008-04-30 3 0
4 2007-04-30 2 0
- 2002-04-30 2 5
6 2017-04-30 0 0
- 2012-04-30 0 5
- 2010-04-30 0 1
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models are indicating another Niño-like +AAM rise near the end of February and start of March. While it is a warm pattern in late January like we recently experienced, it can offer a +PNA  near the start of March. So this may be our last shot a getting a small snow event to close out the season. But there may not be any guarantees since it will still be combined with the lingering Niña-like Pacific background pattern. 
 

3ECE05EA-81F4-42C8-AA5D-C8B29BC7DE5D.thumb.jpeg.eb72df3dc4bf6fc85958438b951ec1dc.jpeg
 

 


 

 

Not saying it’s right but the last CANSIPS run wanted to pop a big Aleutian ridge in March, which would fit with the Niña background you talk about. Also, check out the PDO, it’s gone strongly negative since January. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020020100&fh=1

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models are indicating another Niño-like +AAM rise near the end of February and start of March. While it is a warm pattern in late January like we recently experienced, it can offer a +PNA  near the start of March. So this may be our last shot a getting a small snow event to close out the season. But there may not be any guarantees since it will still be combined with the lingering Niña-like Pacific background pattern. 
 

3ECE05EA-81F4-42C8-AA5D-C8B29BC7DE5D.thumb.jpeg.eb72df3dc4bf6fc85958438b951ec1dc.jpeg
 

 


 

 

We would have the mjo briefly in the cold phases and the -epo ridge further East. I don’t think it’s lasts long but perhaps we pull a March 2019 like weekend.

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You can see on the roundy plots a wave dies in 7 then a kelvin wave takes over in p8. But by the 11th you have a wave in p5/6 which it has been all winter 

5D5F0656-57E3-435F-A768-EADD8184F6AE.png

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