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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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We " may " head towards p8 to open March if this wave doesn`t die like the last one just did in late Jan.

Although there are more 6 inch snows at KNYC in March than in December, the book has already closed for me on this winter. 

 

Why bother. 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

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Roundy plots have the wave collapsing on the boarder of p6/7. Then by March 1st another wave forms in p2. Phase 2/3 are cold in March but if the Pv is still uber strong  along with AO idk how the cold will get here.

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1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

Lowest barometric pressure I can find is 28.88 at several locations in NJ.

While strong, the low is really broad and elongated at the moment with a relatively large area of similar pressure readings. Lowest are Allentown and Mount Pocono at 28.85.

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Near 11 am, the warm front was pushing northward through the New York City area. The temperature in Central Park had reached 50°.  Temperatures in New York City ranged from 59° on Staten Island to 45° in the Bronx.

In addition, some record highs were tied or broken in the region:

Islip: 53° (old record: 52°, 1990)
New York City-LGA: 52° (tied daily record set in 1951 and tied in 1953 and 1955)
Westhampton: 53° (old record: 52°, 2018)

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6 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Wind gusted to 31 mph and temp up to 57 at noon at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Barometer 28.83.

We have a separate thread for the wind and storm obs

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3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

We " may " head towards p8 to open March if this wave doesn`t die like the last one just did in late Jan.

Although there are more 6 inch snows at KNYC in March than in December, the book has already closed for me on this winter. 

 

Why bother. 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

That's actually not quite true.

There have been 37, 6 inch or more events at KNYC in December and 31 in March. If you include April there are 38, 6 inch events from March 1 on which  does beat December by 1. I posted a breakdown in the banter thread by month.

 

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2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Icon shows a big snowstorm at the end of its run!

12Z GFS has potential - how do we get this to trend north ?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS has potential - how do we get this to trend north ?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

The Euro has your answer (but you're not going to like it) 

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7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The Euro has your answer (but you're not going to like it) 

This is the 12Z EURO

No HP in place - which one is correct GFS or EURO - based on seasonal pattern so far I lean towards the EURO right now

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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17 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The Euro has your answer (but you're not going to like it) 

 

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This is the 12Z EURO

No HP in place - which one is correct GFS or EURO - based on seasonal pattern so far I lean towards the EURO right now

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Euro keeps trending south and east.

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12Z Canadian looks similar to the GFS we haven't had a suppressed system with cold enough air in place so far - we need some help from that southeast ridge

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That's actually not quite true.

There have been 37, 6 inch or more events at KNYC in December and 31 in March. If you include April there are 38, 6 inch events from March 1 on which  does beat December by 1. I posted a breakdown in the banter thread by month.

 

 

 I believe either Don S or Uncle had shown where there were more in March than Dec.

I remember reading that in here. ( Possible It was combined as you say ) . 

 

 

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At 2:30 pm, temperatures were continuing to tumble after having set new daily record high readings in such locations as Islip, New York City (all three stations), Newark, Westhampton, and White Plains.

Some low pressure readings included:

Bridgeport: 28.73" (972.9 mb)
Danbury: 28.72" (972.6 mb)
Hartford: 28.65" (970.2 mb)
New York City: 28.82" (976.0 mb)
Newark: 28.80" (975.3 mb)
Poughkeepsie: 28.73" (972.9 mb)
White Plains: 28.74" (973.2 mb)

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly. Outside a cold shot next weekend This goose is cooked.

Pattern is so hostile-too much to fix...even if the pattern became 50% better, it might not help....confidence growing that we just torch right into March

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly. Outside a cold shot next weekend This goose is cooked.

Ugly is being nice. If that’s correct, no high latitude blocking at all, we go zonal and semizonal flow at the end of this month and all of Canada gets flooded with Pacific maritime air

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16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly. Outside a cold shot next weekend This goose is cooked.

Yes if you follow the eps.

There is a chance near the 14th. How many times have the eps been wrong ?

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Ugly is being nice. If that’s correct, no high latitude blocking at all, we go zonal and semizonal flow at the end of this month and all of Canada gets flooded with Pacific maritime air

How has the eps been this winter ?

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yes if you follow the eps.

There is a chance near the 14th. How many times have the eps been wrong ?

How many times has it snowed this winter?....yeah, I'll go with more futility.   EPS is the highest verifying model to answer your question.  Ignore it at your own risk

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How has the eps been this winter ?

It’s has its flaws but has been good overall. It’s first to correct in the medium range. The lower hgts moving into Ak is no good for us and has been a theme this winter. 

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