weathafella Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The 00z and 12z GFS runs were about as different as possible with timing and dynamics. The 00z was a full on raining event for most in SNE, while the 12z GFS was a full on blizzard once the temps crashed to the coast with a 952mb low east of ACK, but still missed by 50+ miles from a tremendous event, even though I got over 3-4" of QPF from that track. It was the perfect track for me to receive 4 feet of snow, but cold air initially was lacking as we don't have a classic Quebec High. Happens what...every few years? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was a good storm to illustrate where going with the outlier is very risky. I remember NWS OKX was buying the euro. Ill be interested to see what I said in the thread that ginxy linked but I remember being somewhat skeptical of the euro by the time we were inside 36 hours. RGEM actually really did well on that storm IIRC. Showed the real strong deformation/fronto band from 495 to ORH to Eastern CT where is exactly where it ended up. It had a good winter overall. I was selling the EURO idea of a big NYC blizzard. Cweat and I were all over that. I remember I had to duck for cover in the NYC thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 That was just measuring forecast error from the NWS/NDFD to final numbers. Using a snowfall metric. If you want to talk SLP or upper level error im sure the numbers would be quite different. But yeah the snowfall FX is atrocious. 12" min Error was about 130/135mi E of where it ended up. And i do remember the models and the NWS went all in on EC/NAM. I wouldn't say they went all in on an outlier, i always thought of it as two camps really. ECMWF/NAM vs. GFS/CMC(all models). Either way they chose to ignore them completely and put 100% stock in the former. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was selling the EURO idea of a big NYC blizzard. Cweat and I were all over that. I remember I had to duck for cover in the NYC thread. Dodging 9mm caliber weenie rounds like the matrix in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thread the needle is the most overused term here. All storms in SNE are thread the needle Pretty simple concept...it just means that there is increased variability regarding potential track...less of that with a block, hence you don't have to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Euro is going bonkers down in Texas. I'm interested to see how it handles the early deep phase/ULL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro is going bonkers down in Texas. I'm interested to see how it handles the early deep phase/ULL. by the looks of H5. THIS is gonna be a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 996mb low on cape hatt at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 987 into deleware at 192! wow. coastal hugger? we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 The gfs weenie maps are LOL funny for the weekend threat. I know they’re garbage... but not a single flake on far western Connecticut and shows 2 feet in Plymouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: by the looks of H5. THIS is gonna be a bomb Yes. much better than 00Z, its coming right up the coast. Should be a big hit. We're still talking 180-204hrs. Ill be interested to see the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 euro looks good .. Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Yes. much better than 00Z, its coming right up the coast. Should be a big hit. We're still talking 180-204hrs. Ill be interested to see the EPS. yes this looks very wound up. maybe even to much so this run. great sign at this point out as mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Euro big hit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: euro looks good .. Miller A? yes classic on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 198 we have a 971mb south of long island. big bomb. could tell from the early stages. happy tracking !! EVERYONE except extreme COASTAL areas absolutely hammered this run. It was so amped. so dynamic. many cash in as temps will crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 LOL 964mb 204hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro is going bonkers down in Texas. I'm interested to see how it handles the early deep phase/ULL. Will it thread the needle? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Will it thread the needle? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: you forgot the ketchup!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro is going bonkers down in Texas. I'm interested to see how it handles the early deep phase/ULL. Looks like it's close to becoming a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 That’s mostly liquid in the coast. Not that it matters but just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said: Looks like it's close to becoming a cutoff. you are 100% right . looking at 168 it looks like it is just about to become a cutoff but by 196 that NS dives in quickly and perfectly to phase with it. I doubt we will replicate this solution verbatim again next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Meh on the euro.... looks like a Rainer for a good portion of SNE, especially East of ORH.... airmass is still eh Those evolutions usually suck here, sell miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Wow 6 plus from Greenwich long island to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s mostly liquid in the coast. Not that it matters but just sayin. Yea, not a fan of Miller A...someone in our area will get porked. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Meh on the euro.... looks like a Rainer for a good portion of SNE, especially ORH east It would be mostly snow just off the coast in E MA (prob near 128) and SW CT would do well but that is a classic setup for rain from SE CT to S RI and most of SE MA. Gonna change about 15 more times so totally useless anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Meh on the euro.... looks like a Rainer for a good portion of SNE, especially East of ORH why are we even looking at precip type verbatim atm? the signal is there for a significant storm. something we have not had to even track in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Wake me in 5 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Meh on the euro.... looks like a Rainer for a good portion of SNE, especially East of ORH Those evolutions usually suck here, sell miller A We will have dry slot and precip type issues, most likely, but lets get the storm first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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