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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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13 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

The main pieces of energy have yet to be well sampled. The models are just guessing at this point. I will start noticing trends from 00z overnight to 12z tomorrow and not before. And I'm not rooting for snow. Hoping that it doesn't snow actually. But realistically Miler A setups shouldn't be taken seriously or have white flags waived until you start seeing definitive trends within 72 hours of the storm. Just my opinion anyway.

The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals.

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16 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

 It's been consistent in showing a system for the fish. The 06z was only run to show a hit. 

There were other runs as well. At any rate, you don't want to be getting hits every time at this range, things are going to change.

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Just now, RDRY said:

The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals.

There isn’t a consensus, just a series of off the coast solutions. The solutions themselves have significant variation. 

And no, they’re not just guessing, but they’re far less accurate than they’ll be once samples on land. 

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2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals.

There isnt a consensus 4 days out.

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52 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

If I remember correctly the 2010 day after Christmas blizzard was written off until the day before it hit. It’s not over till it’s over.  

Never sleep on a Miller A, lol.  It was written off as a major snowstorm 2 days before it hit, with most solutions showing the storm going out to sea, some missing completely and some showing 1-2" for the 95 corridor and a few to several inches for coastal NJ and LI and SE New England, whereas 3-4 days before the event there was absolute model mayhem with complete misses and blizzards (especially on the Euro).  And then the epic 12/25 0Z runs all showed a huge snowstorm, about 36 hours before the event started.  Thread below.  

I was in Charlotte visiting family on Christmas Eve night after everyone went to sleep causally surfing the web and watching the model runs and every model showed a bomb for our area.  Best Christmas present I could get, lol.  I even convinced my wife and then 16 year old son that we should leave Charlotte after Christmas dinner so we could be home for the blizzard and we left around 7 pm getting caught in the snow a bit for the first 3-4 hours of the drive with several inches on even the interstates, but traffic was light and we outran the snow by about Durham and the rest of the ride was fine.  I got a couple of hours of sleep, played soccer the morning of 12/26, as usual for a Sunday, then sat back and enjoyed an incredible storm.  

Craig Allen had this to say after seeing the 0Z suite that night: "Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS."

 

 

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

There isn’t a consensus, just a series of off the coast solutions. The solutions themselves have significant variation. 

And no, they’re not just guessing, but they’re far less accurate than they’ll be once samples on land. 

They seem to have similar evolutions regarding northern stream interaction -- the northern energy lags behind on all of them.

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8 minutes ago, RDRY said:

They seem to have similar evolutions regarding northern stream interaction -- the northern energy lags behind on all of them.

That’s very true and what I was just looking at. Anyone got a good scientific explanation for why that northern energy is ducking our system? 

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I think we have to give this to Thursday for a final outcome. That said a lot has to go right for this to be something major so I'm still leaning OTS. I really am not interested in a 997 low at the benchmark with rain & snow showers.

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We know storms tend to trend west so the models are really not in an awful spot for 4 days out, I just don't know if a scraper will do it temp wise for the area.

We probably need a bomb closer to the coast in this type of scenario which is looking more and more unlikely but still not impossible.

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1 minute ago, Barman49 said:

I think we have to give this to Thursday for a final outcome. That said a lot has to go right for this to be something major so I'm still leaning OTS. I really am not interested in a 997 low at the benchmark with rain & snow showers.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk
 

Agree a weak low at or east of the benchmark is rain/snow showers. This needs to be sub 990 and tracking inside the BM for the majority of the subforum to have a chance.  Until I see that this is a non event.

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Euro really digs the northern stream further south here. H5 looked pretty good. 

It then tries to form another low with the northern stream energy. This isnt sorted out yet.

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Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Euro has not budged at all. Fish storm

You have to look at h5. This is closer to something  big.

SNE peeps are talking  about the run now. Check out the thread. 

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Euro really digs the northern stream further south here. H5 looked pretty good. 
It then tries to form another low with the northern stream energy. This isnt sorted out yet.
Closer to something than previous runs.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60 

Yeah looking at the setup now I’m more confident something interesting will develop even if only for tracking purposes  

 

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

5e307ab269ef4.png

 

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23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60 

Eps is further west than op. Really close.

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If you wanna raise your weather prediction verification scores, start predicting how many 50-Degree Days we might have in the next 15, instead of how many inches of snow are not going to accumulate.  

The PV rearrangement is going to give us dirty cold air that mixes with Pacific air, or never reaches past the EC and out into the Atlantic.     Our cold source region is HB.       The latest GFS does not even have a BN day it seems.      

I bet that if matters are not cleared up by the weekend (for what remains of the winter), major EC meteorologists will hold a 'secret' intranet conference or something and just call off the rest of winter.     That would allow them to share the blame, however it goes.      No more speaking with forked tongue.

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25 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Dr No.  Has there ever been a Dr Yes? 

Dr No has been awful this winter.  

I'm starting to hate winter.

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The trough is actually quite amplified but the flow is too progressive. Really could have used some ridging over Greenland. The lack of blocking is a major issue.

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