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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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That lead energy is going to be there and it's going to rob the system behind it of moisture/dynamics. So, two things need to happen:

1) The lead energy needs to speed up and move out quicker (not really happening on the 12z GFS).

2) The two vorts behind it need to sync up cleaner, with the northern vort diving down (that clearly is happening).

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Well our turn to colder weather now features 5 50-Degree Days and No Snow for the first two weeks of February(12Z, GFS).      Average T is 39degs. for the period, or 6degs. AN.      I told you that we should be guessing the number of  50-Degree Days, not the number of inches of snow that will not be accumulating.

The MJO sucks, TC's suck and the atmosphere does not know whether it wants to react to a weak El Nino or react to a non-existent  La Nina.          Any storm will be by accident and not predictable on a coherent basis, well in advance.          The PV will rotate away after this period and we will have our old friend the SE Ridge back in town to entertain us.

Give me back January already---the SE Ridge does not look so good with a long grey beard.

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2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Well our turn to colder weather now features 5 50-Degree Days and No Snow for the first two weeks of February(12Z, GFS).      Average T is 39degs. for the period, or 6degs. AN.      I told you that we should be guessing the number of  50-Degree Days, not the number of inches of snow that will not be accumulating.

The MJO sucks, TC's suck and the atmosphere does not know whether it wants to react to a weak El Nino or react to a non-existent  La Nina.          Any storm will be by accident and not predictable on a coherent basis, well in advance.          The PV will rotate away after this period and we will have our old friend the SE Ridge back in town to entertain us.

Give me back January already---the SE Ridge does not look so good with a long grey beard.

11/12 redux is pretty much what we're getting.  Zero cold air, not a single telleconnection in our favor, a couple weak cutters, yawn yawn yawn.

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54 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Admit it... You still feel that little tingling of excitement... You want to suppress it... You want to ignore it... But the weenie in you can't be denied... 

Even the biggest weenies after ongoing and “ long term” disappointment  eventually shrivel. As always .... 

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Just now, Barman49 said:

Looks better. I'm looking forward to the especially tonight's NAM run. Still a long shot but Euro pulled me back in.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk
 

This def a long shot but still close to track. I mean , what else do we have to track? 

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah I mean just look at the dramatic improvement at h5 on the GFS, Canadian and now Euro. You have to stop letting it bother you when people tell you its over. Ironically it's usually me saying it.

I know its most  likely over but we are all snow starved. 

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Seriously? Look at h5 or check out the SNE thread. Seems like they dont think it's over but everyone in here has given up.

Long shot but the models this winter have been a joke.

Just trying to point out that words matter. You could've described that way differently and still been positive about the changes at 500 mb. To me, you implied everyone in the NE got snow out of that solution.

It's much closer to what the EPS has been showing. Going to have to rely on perfect dynamics to get accumulating snow in what will be a garbage air mass.

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

Just trying to point out that words matter. You could've described that way differently and still been positive about the changes at 500 mb. To me, you implied everyone in the NE got snow out of that solution.

It's much closer to what the EPS has been showing. Going to have to rely on perfect dynamics to get accumulating snow in what will be a garbage air mass.

Agree

I'm trying to hold out hope.:)

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