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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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Wow, you guys have lots more patience than I do. I prefer WINTER in winter. I grew up in Lancaster, PA...so am very familiar with the climate of the Piedmont/Coastal Plain. Vowed never to live in such a mild climate again! The wife has other plans.................... :P 

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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

The biggest weenie lives in the worst place for snow and here. That seems legit.

Long Beach probably has the same as Anthony. We've been getting an extra 1-2" on each event this season up here vs the south shore. And Ant has the heat island working somewhat against him too.

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Long Beach probably has the same as Anthony. We've been getting an extra 1-2" on each event this season up here vs the south shore. And Ant has the heat island working somewhat against him too.

I do to tbh. But the smaller events I still manage to get some accumulation. I just feel like he didn’t get the chance to measure the smaller events 

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Long Beach probably has the same as Anthony. We've been getting an extra 1-2" on each event this season up here vs the south shore. And Ant has the heat island working somewhat against him too.

Long Island can be tricky

 

last storm was snowing at my house in west Babylon while it was raining 2 miles south of me. 

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25 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Icon way east

Long range cras is over Chicago.  Blend the 2.   

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GFS verbatim is warm for the coast but with a low in that spot at that strength I think this would be mostly snow for everyone.

This could be big if it bombs out a bit earlier

 

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Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Oh man. It has days to trend more west to. Those trends. :lightning:

How far west do you want it? Lol 

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Remarkably consistent incremental westward shifts on last 4 GFS runs.

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Just now, Rjay said:

How far west do you want it? Lol 

A bit more west and bombing out earlier would be ideal but yea too much more west and we are going to get the boats ready and the way this winter is going that wouldn't shock me.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

A bit more west and bombing out earlier would be ideal but yea too much more west and we are going to get the boats ready and the way this winter is going that wouldn't shock me.

going to be interesting how the EURO reacts to whatever data is injected into it over the next couple of hours...…….

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Flow is fast and there's no blocking so it's very unlikely this keeps shifting west. 

A miss to the east is more likely imo. Surface on GFS indicates possible paste job but bc it's flying & bombing too late New England is more likely to score. 

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30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Flow is fast and there's no blocking so it's very unlikely this keeps shifting west. 

A miss to the east is more likely imo. Surface on GFS indicates possible paste job but bc it's flying & bombing too late New England is more likely to score. 

I doubt it shifts east again - I would think its going to be either side 50 -75 miles of where it is now and lock into that solution by late Wednesday when all the key players are onshore out west for better sampling …………..

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2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Long Island can be tricky

 

last storm was snowing at my house in west Babylon while it was raining 2 miles south of me. 

Yeah I am in Lindenhurst and this does happen from time to time.

 

6.4” on the year so far.

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I haven’t even bothered measuring. 

I haven’t decided what counts for accumulation here, in my heart at least. I’ve always been a stalwart for the driven street, but it’s painful hoping for it to stick sometimes. 

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Too many things need to go right for us to see snow in this set up. I just don’t see it happening. No model currently gives our area any snow. 

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7 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Too many things need to go right for us to see snow in this set up. I just don’t see it happening. No model currently gives our area any snow. 

Gfs does that was near a perfect run.

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8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs does that was near a perfect run.

Old saying rings true 4 days out you never want to be in the bullseye .once this potential storm is sampled  new data will be added to the models..in my opinion by wed oz or thur 12z much better idea of things...

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Well, I'm liking the fact that all 4 major global models at 0Z are at least now showing a pretty significant to major coastal storm this weekend (mostly Saturday late morning through the evening for the Philly-NYC region), but only one of them is showing significant snowfall.  The GFS shows a snow to rain storm with significant snowfall along and NW of 95, while the UK shows a monsoon of a rainstorm with 1-3" of rain (close to 1" well NW to almost 3" near the coast), and the Euro and CMC show a major storm a couple hundred miles off the coast, with just some modest rains near the coast, but huge rains offshore (1-2"), so the precip is certainly there with all 4 models.  

But we're about 5 days out and obviously much can change between now and the event, especially with the main players being well offshore of the NA continent.  As many have said with borderline antecedent temps this is a serious "thread the needle" scenario, so a major snowstorm is unlikely, but we all know powerful storms like this can essentially "generate" their own cold air via dynamic cooling with heavy precip rates and sometimes turn a rainstorm into a pastebomb of a snowstorm.  So, nobody needs to buy milk and bread yet (or a canoe), but this one is worth tracking and maybe it's our time to get lucky...or not.  The one thing that's starting to look likely is the potential for heavy surf and possibly minor tidal flooding (fortunately it won't be a full moon).  

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1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said:

Too many things need to go right for us to see snow in this set up. I just don’t see it happening. No model currently gives our area any snow. 

4 days away

Keep tracking

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I am a novice and I totally understand that there are many moving parts that must come together for this weekend to work out well for snow lovers.The way the winter has gone with these models = the only time I want to be in the bulls eye is on the day of the storm. The models that have shifted "way" West or OTS could easily show us different solutions in 24 or 48 hours. Lets see what the later runs today have to say, with 4 days to go yet A LOT can happen.

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