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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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19 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Nashville native here. Considering a chase to Springfield Friday. For some of you, I get why this is laughable...but where we are, there’s a pretty good chance we get shut out snow-wise this winter. I’m a winter fanatic so I don’t mind the driving if it leads to something. 2-4” for where I’m from is a big deal. Would help to get local input/insight. Who knows...this threat may evaporate in 24-36 making this post a moot point. 

Nashville is such an awesome place, my friend moved there last summer and I drove to visit him over Labor Day weekend. Saw a lot of Illinois license plates. :lol: Good luck!

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At the end of the NAM run, there is still solid snow falling from Cedar Rapids to Chicago/Milwaukee.

The last snow system lasted four hours.  This week's event has the potential to last 60 hours.  Now, if we could just pair the 1"/hr rates from the last event with the 48+ hour duration of this one, we'd really have something.

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

At the end of the NAM run, there is still solid snow falling from Cedar Rapids to Chicago/Milwaukee.

The last snow system lasted four hours.  This week's event has the potential to last 60 hours.

Just the extremely unique nature of this system attracts me. All it takes is a bit of an upward tick in qpf and all systems are a go

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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

I'd be much more concerned about the marginal airmass than qpf, but that's just me

I was just saying, perhaps with false optimism, that all it would take to make this much more interesting is a bit more liquid. I'm not saying that a lack thereof is the chief issue with the system

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18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

At the end of the NAM run, there is still solid snow falling from Cedar Rapids to Chicago/Milwaukee.

The last snow system lasted four hours.  This week's event has the potential to last 60 hours.  Now, if we could just pair the 1"/hr rates from the last event with the 48+ hour duration of this one, we'd really have something.

Have to admit I am skeptical of some snow event lasting 60hrs. And the NAM at this range whatever it shows is toss worthy.

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3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Have to admit I am skeptical of some snow event lasting 60hrs. And the NAM at this range whatever it shows is toss worthy.

I'm sure there will be some breaks.  Other models are showing a decent break after the initial wave.  Plus, the rotating spokes of energy will probably have dry moats mixed in.

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I'd be much more concerned about the marginal airmass than qpf, but that's just me
Looks like another disappointment...on a side note, we have the rare wind chill advisory in sofla, bitter cold maling it all the way to the se coast, this happens every few years..WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Wind chills are forecast to range from the mid 20s to mid 30s. * WHERE...Across South Florida. * WHEN...Tonight into Wednesday Morning.

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NAM meteogram wants 0.13” ZR followed by 1.26” QPF worth of snow here, I guess if it’s gonna be NAM vs GFS it might as well be as extreme as possible

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS just doesn't want to budge from the mostly-rain event.

but it has frozen precip on the outer edge of the precip shield ..odd

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The GFS just doesn't want to budge from the mostly-rain event.

The GFS stubbornly keeping 925 between 0 and +1C is really what it comes down to. The other models aren't doing that. On the midnight shift last night, the forecasters considered the GFS thermal profiles to be an outlier.

 

That said, the combination of weak and disjointed forcing and marginal BL conditions means that accumulations tomorrow night through much of Thursday night will likely be inefficient (lots of white rain). Would look to Friday and Friday night as the upper low gets closer while slowly deepening and the system develops better deformation precip for a bulk of the snow accumulation, wherever that max axis ends up.

 

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5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The GFS stubbornly keeping 925 between 0 and +1C is really what it comes down to. The other models aren't doing that. On the midnight shift last night, the forecasters considered the GFS thermal profiles to be an outlier.

 

That said, the combination of weak and disjointed forcing and marginal BL conditions means that accumulations tomorrow night through much of Thursday night will likely be inefficient (lots of white rain). Would look to Friday and Friday night as the upper low gets closer while slowly deepening and the system develops better deformation precip for a bulk of the snow accumulation, wherever that max axis ends up.

 

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Good point.  All it would take is some very minor low level cooling for the GFS to suddenly spit out quite a bit more snow.

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Euro Ensembles from the last couple runs quite a bit further south with best swath of snow (S Iowa to N Illinois) vs 12z GFS Ensembles (heaviest swath N Iowa to Green Bay or so).  Thermals on GFS probably factor in to this but pretty significant there.

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Euro Ensembles from the last couple runs quite a bit further south with best swath of snow (S Iowa to N Illinois) vs 12z GFS Ensembles (heaviest swath N Iowa to Green Bay or so).  Thermals on GFS probably factor in to this but pretty significant there.
Looking at ptype progs from individual members, such as on COD, the ensembles are still nothing like the operational.

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Comparison of 925 mb temps at 72 hours.  The 925 mb low is basically in the same spot on both models, but there is the noticeable difference in temps. 

925th2.us_mw.thumb.png.9bd88f84c877f77915e00322c851a7a9.png

925th.us_mw.thumb.png.d59905c7ef36d26e40d2df06f2ef51ca.png

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Comparison of 925 mb temps at 72 hours.  The 925 mb low is basically in the same spot on both models, but there is the noticeable difference in temps. 

925th2.us_mw.thumb.png.9bd88f84c877f77915e00322c851a7a9.png

925th.us_mw.thumb.png.d59905c7ef36d26e40d2df06f2ef51ca.png

FWIW the Euro is a blend but closer to the NAM especially north and west of the low.

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Euro has an 8" bullseye over Toronto. 

This is a complex storm with a lot of moving parts. Next few days will be interesting. 

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Just now, Thundersnow12 said:

Lake county gets the 10-11" bullseye this run. Nike lake enhancement signal. 

Verbatim it snows here from 6z Thursday till 12z Saturday 

This is one of those few storms where Kuchera probably gives you a better idea than 10:1 because even if precip type is right ratios will probably be 6-8:1 realistically on average.

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A fast moving clipper like wave comes in Saturday evening and drops another 1-2" across northern Illinois so verbatim the Euro has 8-12" for north central and northeast Illinois counting that feature. 

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5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Well, best case scenario might be that December 1992 event, but it's tremendously unlikely.  2-4" of plaster more likely than that, but still improbable.  EURO is almost a whiff to the south even though it's an outlier.

Not happening. Many places across the GTA saw ~20" with that storm. The Dec 92 storm was a full blown Nor'easter and was much stronger.

As it stands right now, 2-4" seems reasonable. 

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40 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Euro has an 8" bullseye over Toronto. 

This is a complex storm with a lot of moving parts. Next few days will be interesting. 

The thing is, if it doesn't snow 8" here you (or anybody) can't go into meltdown mode.

Even saying 2-4" is reasonable seems like you're going out on a limb.  Rain/slush, or even whiff, is just as reasonable.  We're 4-5 days out.

My forecast: precipitation likely on Saturday.  Some slushy snow accumulation is possible.  Details to be ironed out.

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I think we can safely toss the operational GFS 925 mb temps. That doesn't detract from the concern about how marginal the surface temperatures are for accumulation efficiency. Ratios would also be below 10:1 much of the time, so accumulated liquid precip as snow at an average 8:1 ratio might be the way to go. Not sure why the Kuchera map on WxBell has higher snow amounts than 10:1, since Kuchera method is supposed to account for more marginal setups to give lower than 10:1 ratios.

The 12z Euro favored time windows for the LOT CWA/Chicago metro would be later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, Thursday night into Friday morning and then later Friday afternoon-Friday night. There would likely be lulls in between these windows.



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