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January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Alek trolling aside, something like this is a reasonable concern imo.  Somebody is probably going to get screwed with how this pivots, just a matter of where.  On the 18z RAP, it has the better band settling south with minimal time spent over Chicago.

18Z-20200124_RAPNIL_prec_ptype-1-21-100-100.gif.e1cad0983fa3735c0e23dba7bf235c16.gif

Probably Alek.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Alek trolling aside, something like this is a reasonable concern imo.  Somebody is probably going to get screwed with how this pivots, just a matter of where.  On the 18z RAP, it has the better band settling south with minimal time spent over Chicago.

Loop compared to past runs. It is consistently stepping back to reality.

HRRR is doing so as well.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Alek trolling aside, something like this is a reasonable concern imo.  Somebody is probably going to get screwed with how this pivots, just a matter of where.  On the 18z RAP, it has the better band settling south with minimal time spent over Chicago.

18Z-20200124_RAPNIL_prec_ptype-1-21-100-100.gif.e1cad0983fa3735c0e23dba7bf235c16.gif

It is also the RAP which is pretty low grade these days compared to other models. 

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Alek trolling aside, something like this is a reasonable concern imo.  Somebody is probably going to get screwed with how this pivots, just a matter of where.  On the 18z RAP, it has the better band settling south with minimal time spent over Chicago.

18Z-20200124_RAPNIL_prec_ptype-1-21-100-100.gif.e1cad0983fa3735c0e23dba7bf235c16.gif

It'll be me. I've come to terms with it. Enjoying my cold rain today. 

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31 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

It'll be me. I've come to terms with it. Enjoying my cold rain today. 

We already know that though.  :(  I'm talking about somebody coming in on the low end or less than forecast/modeled.  On the 18z NAM it is more like Milwaukee instead of Chicago on the RAP.

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55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We already know that though.  :(  I'm talking about somebody coming in on the low end or less than forecast/modeled.  On the 18z NAM it is more like Milwaukee instead of Chicago on the RAP.

I've prepped for this exact situation. I'm old and have seen how this can kind of event more than likely plays out.

Nice steady rain cleaning up the driveway nicely 

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3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

EC just issued a rainfall warning for us. Gonna be a soaker tonight. 

As for snow, it all comes down to sfc temps. I think areas near the lake will get next to nothing. Both 12z NAM 3km and HRDPS have ~2.0" for YYZ. HRRR has nothing. What do you think? 

I'm not particular hopefully with the primary ul divergence/llj surge of precip to yield any snow.  We might have a better shot tomorrow night with the wrapround.  That being said, you up in Vaughan have a better shot than those of us closer to L Ontario.  

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