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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS prob of 3 inches or more thru Day 16.  Note most of this probability is still 10+ days away.  I am going to be very disappointed if there is nothing inside of 10 days by the end of next weekend.

D41FC47A-AC76-4B98-9B7F-9D148CBD2AC2.png

That worthless map could be valid for any 15 days between any given November and March. For the love of might, stop posting it

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1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

That worthless map could be valid for any 15 days between any given November and March. For the love of might, stop posting it

Thanks! He can even just sleep through his 6 am postings.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Need the 12z map for comparison 

Low location plot looks good but under the hood sucks... lots and lots of rainstorms and half of them are sliders. Not a good run at all imo

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17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For all intents and purposes every one of these maps you post, no offense to you, look exactly the same.

I am frustrated as well that it always seems like 10 day plus.  However, it has also been a frustrating winter.  Let’s see if February puts us in a better mood.

96FA2A5C-FAD2-4E24-AED6-1DFBB43440DD.png

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Low location plot looks good but under the hood sucks... lots and lots of rainstorms and half of them are sliders. Not a good run at all imo

Probably couldn’t be worse than 12z. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see that one blow up. Might blow up into a rainer, but still the potential for a big storm is there imo.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Probably couldn’t be worse than 12z. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see that one blow up. Might blow up into a rainer, but still the potential for a big storm is there imo.

It's actually worse than 12z. It's an ugly run

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Just now, nj2va said:

Those lows in the GL tell me all I need to know even with a cluster of Ls off OBX...no way we see a frozen event here with that look.  

I’ll play devil’s advocate. We have no way to know whether the lows in the gl exist in conjunction with the coastal lows without looking at every member.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Those lows in the GL tell me all I need to know even with a cluster of Ls off OBX...no way we see a frozen event here with that look.  

EPS is keeping the streams separate so the solutions with a storm climbing the coast are very compact and warm with no big shield to the nw of the low. I'll post the control run in a minute. It's a good example

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How can it be worse than a run with no storm at all?

I'm not talking about the op as 18z only goes out 90 hrs. Eps goes out to 144

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll play devil’s advocate. We have no way to know whether the lows in the gl exist in conjunction with the coastal lows without looking at every member.

That’s fair.  But when the ensemble mean is “green” in the general GL region, it screams to me that the ensembles are favoring low pressure in that area when we’d need the opposite.  And with so many Ls up there vs so few near OBX, it makes me think a snowy solution here is unlikely.  i hope I’m wrong.

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The midweek thing keeps gaining strength and latitude.  Look at the 48 hour panel and compare it with the last several runs.  It would be a real miracle.. a long shot.. but at least something is trending in the direction for once...

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1 hour ago, frd said:

There have been times this winter, more so back in November and December where the vortex can become more prone to displacement events and elongations. Folks will look at the 10 hP winds GPH for clues as to what may happen down the road. During these times our weather was effected with cold intrusions.  

The animation above was focused more so on a possible split,  but note the orientation as well,  it becomes stretched and elongated and almost splits at 10 hP. But, there is more to it than that,  as the animation only focused on 10 hP.  But, yes, it can effect our weather is the short answer. But it would take pages to explain the various effects from each type of event and to cover both the SPV and the TPV, including coupling , top up event and a bottoms up event , and the geographic target zones of where each event is most likely to impact.  Some events favor the impacts targeting Eurasia, others Europe and some the Eastern US.     

Thanks for the info.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

@Ji keep an eye on early Feb.,  just as a period of interest , goes along with Simon Lee's post and HM's as well. 

 

 

 

 

  

I'm not going to hate on this, because I like cold any where, any time, any how (except when I am at the beach), but inwardly chuckling at the thought of another Jan-Feb fail followed by a random March cold outbreak bringing flurries and cold rain to the SE.  You guys can be more enthusiastic.

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