Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Just can't phantom waiting 10 to 15 more days for a decent chance ugh

 

1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

Phantom is more apropos than what you meant to say

 

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

The best Broadway play ever was The Fathom of the Opera 

 

1 hour ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

We know how the last act of the Phantom of the Snow opera plays out.

For those not in know^^

[Ji]

Remember when the mods erased banter from these threads. Entertainment always wins out

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I like these names over member user names. I think Bob is the only member to ever have a storm verify that someone named. The other 999 that posters name for other posters end up in the sh!tter. Some sort of curse.

PSU's infamous Jan 2011 storm is the high bar

[Chris78]

18 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Another one moves in a day later, lol.

That 4 day span may change alot of opinions on this winter. 

We'll except for @Ji

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 hours of timing could bring the weekend storm to the forefront of all the discussion. 

[Chris78]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

6 hours of timing could bring the weekend storm to the forefront of all the discussion. 

Im definitely not giving up. So many moving pieces. Especially the  northern stream

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Remember when the mods erased banter from these threads. Entertainment always wins out

Context matters 

1. It’s been awful

2. everyone is having fun with it 

3. Everything is still a loooong ways out

4. No one is being a jerk or antagonizing anyone 

5. No one is going overboard and trying to intentionally derail the thread. 

If people go too far and it turns ugly then moderation is needed. I’m not in favor of heavy mod. But in the past we have had a few people who didn’t have any concept of boundaries or common sense. Or they were intentionally trying to troll the thread over and over.  

[MD Snow]

Anybody have the UKmet from earlier today? 

[Weather Will]

WB UK 12z

3 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Anybody have the UKmet from earlier today? 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS prob of 3 inches or more thru Day 16.  Note most of this probability is still 10+ days away.  I am going to be very disappointed if there is nothing inside of 10 days by the end of next weekend.

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS prob of 3 inches or more thru Day 16.  Note most of this probability is still 10+ days away.  I am going to be very disappointed if there is nothing inside of 10 days by the end of next weekend.

For all intents and purposes every one of these maps you post, no offense to you, look exactly the same.

[C.A.P.E.]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For all intents and purposes every one of these maps you post, no offense to you, look exactly the same.

They always tell us the same thing- we suck at snow.

[stormtracker]

44 minutes ago, Ji said:

Remember when the mods erased banter from these threads. Entertainment always wins out

There's nothing going on.

[BristowWx]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

They always tell us the same thing- we suck at snow.

Yes but you can travel 100 miles north of the outer limits of our forum and they aren’t killing it either.  100 miles south and nothing but tears.  We all suck at snow.  Except for Maine.  They don’t suck. 

[PDIII]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes but you can travel 100 miles north of the outer limits of our forum and they aren’t killing it either.  100 miles south and nothing but tears.  We all suck at snow.  Except for Maine.  They don’t suck. 

Yeah Maine is doing great this year! 

[losetoa6]

18z Euro trying to bring back the mid week system as well . Gets light snow into sw Va and a bit even into NC . Ji will implode if the se forum gets a warning event lol.  It wouldn't surprise me if this is a sneaky little event in the end for possibly SW. Va . Up this way too little too late . FWIW  Hr 90 h5 looks a bit better early on for the weekend threat 

[Scraff]

Me waving goodbye to this weekends snow chance... 

[frd]

 

For the love of God, just once have this come true.  

I always say you have to have big digital snows show up fist and then have a Southward placement of them to feel there may be potential down the road. 

Total speculation, but if the EPS were to start gaining members and the numbers increase overall I say this period has merit. 

On a side note,  there also seems to be some connection at this time from a  pv elongation. 

 

 

 

[Ji]

52 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

There's nothing going on.

really? The 18z gfs just gave us 20 inches of snow lol

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

 

For the love of God, just once have this come true.  

I always say you have to have big digital snows show up fist and then have a Southward placement of them to feel there may be potential down the road. 

Total speculation, but if the EPS were to start gaining members and the numbers increase overall I say this period has merit. 

On a side note,  there also seems to be some connection at this time from a  pv elongation. 

 

 

 

thats a really cool animation

[C.A.P.E.]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

really? The 18z gfs just gave us 20 inches of snow lol

18z GEFS gave us like 3 over the next 16 days.

[frd]

Just now, Ji said:

thats a really cool animation

 

I know Bob and psu commented about HM recently struggling with the pattern , but I enjoyed reading Anthony's latest series of posts just now about the "potential " period of interest as it relates to the vortex, wave driving and maybe some pressure going forward.  I suggest you check it out. Very interesting series of events  in early Feb, but the timing could coincide better as HM mentions to the vacillation period that we have seen the past few months in a row between the  15 th and the 20th versus early in Feb. 

 

 

[cbmclean]

26 minutes ago, frd said:

 

For the love of God, just once have this come true.  

I always say you have to have big digital snows show up fist and then have a Southward placement of them to feel there may be potential down the road. 

Total speculation, but if the EPS were to start gaining members and the numbers increase overall I say this period has merit. 

On a side note,  there also seems to be some connection at this time from a  pv elongation. 

 

 

 

10 hP is the Stratospheric Polar vortex, right?  Does this actually influence our weather in any meaningful way?

[frd]

Just now, cbmclean said:

10 hP is the Stratospheric Polar vortex, right?  Does this actually influence our weather in any meaningful way?

There have been times this winter, more so back in November and December where the vortex can become more prone to displacement events and elongations. Folks will look at the 10 hP winds GPH for clues as to what may happen down the road. During these times our weather was effected with cold intrusions.  

The animation above was focused more so on a possible split,  but note the orientation as well,  it becomes stretched and elongated and almost splits at 10 hP. But, there is more to it than that,  as the animation only focused on 10 hP.  But, yes, it can effect our weather is the short answer. But it would take pages to explain the various effects from each type of event and to cover both the SPV and the TPV, including coupling , top up event and a bottoms up event , and the geographic target zones of where each event is most likely to impact.  Some events favor the impacts targeting Eurasia, others Europe and some the Eastern US.     

[frd]

 

@Ji keep an eye on early Feb.,  just as a period of interest , goes along with Simon Lee's post and HM's as well. 

 

 

 

 

  

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS prob of 3 inches or more thru Day 16.  Note most of this probability is still 10+ days away.  I am going to be very disappointed if there is nothing inside of 10 days by the end of next weekend.

That worthless map could be valid for any 15 days between any given November and March. For the love of might, stop posting it

[Grothar of Herndon]

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

That worthless map could be valid for any 15 days between any given November and March. For the love of might, stop posting it

Thanks! He can even just sleep through his 6 am postings.

[Buddy1987]

We need some Jebman positivity to kick off the 0z runs. ICON will lead us off with a healthy storm.

[Mersky]

18z EPS 

978 just off the Delmarva would make most happy 

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

18z EPS 

978 just off the Delmarva would make most happy 

Need the 12z map for comparison