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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

9" of snow in Lake Pontchartrain could be a red flag but I'll ignore fow now

 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

9" of snow in Lake Pontchartrain could be a red flag but I'll ignore fow now

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-26 at 12.01.33 PM.png

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

9" of snow in Lake Pontchartrain could be a red flag but I'll ignore for now

Like how it rains in Boston and NYC and pours snow here.

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31 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Tropical tidbits isn’t even close to that lol

That’s exactly where some of want it.  Awesone!

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7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, I guess I’m just not sure how much potential this really holds even if everything does go perfect. What’s the top bar here? 3-6” of wet paste?

Depends what you mean. The most probable outcome is no snow. Way more still has to go right than wrong. And if we do get snow the most likely outcome is minor accumulation due to either temp issues cutting down accumulation or some issue like an unclean phase scenario cutting down QPF. But if you’re asking if it’s hypotheticall  possible to get a big snow...yea it’s possible. Rare. But there have been rare examples of similar thermally challenges setups where everything went perfect and Baltimore got like 8” of snow.  Kind of like when an average weekend golfer lines up for some 175 yard approach shot.  What are the odds that shot goes exactly how he envisions it and ends up right next to the hole?  I wouldn’t put money on it but every once in a while...

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14 minutes ago, PDIII said:

incoming on the GFS

I love it when we have to be confused about “which storm” a post is about. That’s at least a sign things are improving 

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6-12" followed by 1-2' within a week works for me. Idgaf what happens after that. It could be 70 degrees the rest of Feb and I'd be perfectly happy with the world

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24 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Wait...so I haven't delved into what the GGEM shows, but just looking at the image posted above by @Chris78, I would have thought all or mostly rain incoming.  How does it dump 6"+ over the area??  I know, I know...snow maps and all that, but still.

You can tell all the heavy snow SW of DC is in elevated regions. Then there is that band that starts near DC northeast. Just from that I can deduce that the system phases and the deform starts to crank from there northeast.  Gfs and gem shared one commonality. They were both slightly late on the phase to really bomb our area. But that’s not that uncommon. Unfortunately in many other setups we can get a 4-8” storm in its formative stages while Philly northeast gets 10”+. But with the temp issues this time the cutoff between lot of snow and nothing could be less forgiving. That is just one of many obstacles but 12z has been kind so far. 

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Appears the reason the gefs looks crappy next weekend isn't because of rain anymore. Its due the majority of members not having the southern wave come north. Similar to last night's euro.

Beyond that looks very intriguing. A lot of big storms of all flavors. Cluster stripes NC and S VA. I always like seeing that in the mix. It's a clue we may not need perfection with temps. Long way away and wtf knows where all this is going 

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39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

9" of snow in Lake Pontchartrain could be a red flag but I'll ignore for now

The GFS is in massive debt this year in the SE considering it still owes Jacksonville a blizzard from last month.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Appears the reason the gefs looks crappy next weekend isn't because of rain anymore. Its due the majority of members not having the southern wave come north. Similar to last night's euro.

Beyond that looks very intriguing. A lot of big storms of all flavors. Cluster stripes NC and S VA. I always like seeing that in the mix. It's a clue we may not need perfection with temps. Long way away and wtf knows where all this is going 

People who want clarity with things past 5 days will be disappointed but the big picture is the pattern looks less hostile in early Feb and we’re starting to get some random op runs and scattering of ensemble members with hits. That doesn’t suddenly mean I’m gonna forget the seasonal trend or lose my skepticism but it’s hard not to think we at least have more of a chance the next 2 weeks that we have at anytime this winter. Again low bar and all. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Its due the majority of members not having the southern wave come north. Similar to last night's euro.

I will believe post verification, but maybe there is an interval near the to, or prior to the weekend event, that the NAO actually goes negative. We can talk about block location versus the value, but at least the Atlantic looks interesting to a degree. Whether it plays a role in the outcome not sure.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

People who want clarity with things past 5 days will be disappointed but the big picture is the pattern looks less hostile in early Feb and we’re starting to get some random op runs and scattering of ensemble members with hits. That doesn’t suddenly mean I’m gonna forget the seasonal trend or lose my skepticism but it’s hard not to think we at least have more of a chance the next 2 weeks that we have at anytime this winter. Again low bar and all. 

Agree. It sure looks like next weekend is the beginning of an active period with both the NS and SS. We need less to go right for 2-3 weeks. Pile up the chances and see what happens. All 3 global ens looks similar too so we're not trying to ignore disaster by hugging outlier solutions. We do that well tho

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agree. It sure looks like next weekend is the beginning of an active period with both the NS and SS. We need less to go right for 2-3 weeks. Pile up the chances and see what happens. All 3 global ens looks similar too so we're not trying to ignore disaster by hugging outlier solutions. We do that well tho

Gefs walked back from the ledge day 16 too. Clear step towards the eps idea of where the pattern goes in mid February. Again not perfect but a pattern we can snow with a little luck. At least cold would be in the conus. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs walked back from the ledge day 16 too. Clear step towards the eps idea of where the pattern goes in mid February. Again not perfect but a pattern we can snow with a little luck. At least cold would be in the conus. 

Gefs has not been good this year overall. Very untrustworthy with just about everything. I look at it regularly of course but I have zero confidence with anything it puts out unless another ens looks similar. Sometimes I wonder if the times it gets it right D15 is an illusion of accuracy and is more a byproduct of coincidence than anything else. EPS has been very good this year. Some folks around here hate the EPS and call others model huggers. Which is silly because my only motivation is to try and be accurate and to do so you should weight the model with the best verification scores over the others. 

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Euro not digging the northern stream. Just shoots straight across southern Canada

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Safe to say that the euro won’t be close.  Southern SW gets left behind and squashed.

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