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stormtracker

January 18th Event

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1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

guys the front thump 3k is clearly a lot drier, a met just confirmed this JFC

The “thump” doesn’t cone until about 12z Saturday. The 3k runs only to 6z Saturday. Is your met psychic? Sees the future?

Oops, sorry I forgot the “JFC”

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2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

guys the front thump 3k is clearly a lot drier, a met just confirmed this JFC

3k NAM shouldn’t even be looked at in this range. Precip isn’t even close to our area. 

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For the weeenies and non-experts out there.......can you please refrain from posting definitive statements re model runs? If you have to ask whether you are one of the experienced posters, the answer is NO. 

We have plenty of experts who can handle the analysis and mixing in bad analysis just causes confusion. 

 

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27 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

guys the front thump 3k is clearly a lot drier, a met just confirmed this JFC

You weren't addressing dry vs wet in your post. You said it showed all rain. (the ICON at least)

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19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The “thump” doesn’t cone until about 12z Saturday. The 3k runs only to 6z Saturday. Is your met psychic? Sees the future?

Oops, sorry I forgot the “JFC”

You’re making me proud.

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Just now, DCAlexandria said:

.2" of sleet is a big ole nothingburger

Like your weather posts?? 

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Seems prudent to monitor the latest forecasts for icy conditions Saturday/Saturday night.  No one is getting snowed in around the DMV this weekend.  But what do I know, I’m just a lawyer with a weather hobby.

i would also add as a fellow federal employee that while the NWS is conservative, they usually get it right within 48 hours or so of an event.  They know the analogs and have in-house methodology to hone in on a forecast.  Plus they have the added pressure to get it right with headquarters in their region.  Believe me they want to get it correct so they don’t have to hear about it.

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54 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Like your weather posts?? 

not a big fan of you but this post is spot on. well done. 

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6 minutes ago, mappy said:

not a big fan of you but this post is spot on. well done. 

I am trying to be good 

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4 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I am trying to be good 

Take what I said as a compliment :)

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6 hours ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffman is the best poster...not in the Mid Atlantic Sub Forum but the entire Board. His combination of ridiculous meteorology knowledge and his ability to teach it where its understandable(hello isotherm/HM)  and then his sense of humor to boot. And i dont say this lightly because Bob Chill is easily in the top 5 on the board. We are pretty lucky to have what we have here....the philly board has Ralph Wiggum lol:) 

And I thought I was smart from being able to read IKEA instructions and understand them

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This was my write up on my weather page. I’m not going to share the images but it was the 850 temps on the GFS.  Update on Saturday...I want to be more specific on what is going on and what may happen to make you understand a little so bare with me, this is long. So, the track of this storm that is going to go WELL west of our area is typically not favorable for wintry precipitation around these parts because southerly flow brings in warm air. But high pressure that I have circled in the last image is going to cause a cold Friday night and initially cold Saturday morning. That’s why I’ve been saying the earlier the precipitation comes in, the better. But eventually this warmer air coming from the south, wins out. 3 images here, the first is from 10am-1pm Saturday and shows generally light precipitation entering the area. The solid black line in these photos is the “32 degree line” in the upper atmosphere. Once this line pass any specific location, generally speaking, it cannon snow or sleet anymore and precipitation is rain or freezing rain. As you can see, as of 1pm that line has already crossed DC but it may still be cold enough for snow or sleet in Baltimore and pointe N&E. The next image is 4pm and this line has crossed Baltimore City so it’s now freezing rain or rain at that time and finally 7pm it’s crossed the entire state. So the problem we’re dealing with in terms of snow is a rapidly warming upper atmosphere the later in the day it gets. That combined with most models holding precipitation off until about 10am or later, equals not a great set up for an extended period of snow. If we can get this in earlier, then snow potential increases. I hope this makes you understand more. At this point, the best call is for 1” or less from I-95 and south. And perhaps up to 2” for near the PA line. Then a coating of sleet and perhaps extended ice to the north of 95. Cities, mostly plain rain after initial snow/sleet.

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Nam implies an all snow to sleet fest here . Hardly any zrain. 2m temps below freezing through like 9z Sun .  Juiced up a bit towards Charles town,  out near Winchester areas and eastern shore 

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Just now, Chris78 said:

The nam gives me 1.5" of sleet. That would be rare. Ussually sleet is short lived during the transistion from snow to rain.

If it still showing it Friday it might have legs . The soundings don't look like much of a deep warm intrusion . Just a sneaky thin layer around 800mb roughly..up here .

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nam implies an all snow to sleet fest here . Hardly any zrain. 2m temps below freezing through like 9z Sun .  Juiced up a bit towards Charles town,  out near Winchester areas and eastern shore 

Yeah. It is actually somewhat interesting out here in the Winchester area. Still time for improvement as well. 

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00z ICON continues to be a significant icing event for Saturday. At 12z Saturday the freezing line is wedged all the way down into NC. Doesn’t get above freezing in DC until 03z Sunday.  

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14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The nam gives me 1.5" of sleet. That would be rare. Ussually sleet is short lived during the transistion from snow to rain.

Nothing will top the Feb 07 sleetstorm that turned into a glacier. My friend was an xray tech and she worked two 18 hour days from slips and sled accidents. Lol

 

ICON is .5 qpf all frozen. I'm sure some is sleet. Models agree most of the area is below freezing for most of the precip. Mid 20s the night before will freeze the ground. Could be an interesting storm for not much snow

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

00z ICON continues to be a significant icing event for Saturday. At 12z Saturday the freezing line is wedged all the way down into NC. Doesn’t get above freezing in DC until 03z Sunday.  

Yea...its been colder then the nam I believe the past few runs . It also moistened up a bit out towards Charles town,  Winchester similar to nam .

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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

00z ICON continues to be a significant icing event for Saturday. At 12z Saturday the freezing line is wedged all the way down into NC. Doesn’t get above freezing in DC until 03z Sunday.  

It’s hard to put much stock in the ICON but it gives Deep Creek over 1” of frozen QPF.  I’m just rooting for an interesting event knowing that it won’t be all snow.

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00z ICON continues to be a significant icing event for Saturday. At 12z Saturday the freezing line is wedged all the way down into NC. Doesn’t get above freezing in DC until 03z Sunday.  


I feel like we’ve been in this situation with the ICON before. Anyone know if it has a cold bias?

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0z NAM and ICON are almost identical with temps/qpf through 0z Sun. Temps aren't even iffy over a large area. That's not common with storms like this. Might be a red flag. Gfs is almost 10 degrees warmer but gfs is bad with CAD

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