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Snowstorms

January 17-18 Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I see models are initializing weaker with the high than it actually is. For example 0z hrrr has a 1042mb high when it's actually 1047mb. Curious if that's why some of these models are warning surface temperatures too quick. Could be slower with a stronger departing high

Most guidance was around 1046/1047mb for 0z, so I wouldn't say they are really off much.

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1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

Taking this to the bank right now

6D96471E-CCCB-4387-A726-E84F851631EC.png

On the door step of this, the King, and we are complaining??  LOL.  Man, what a bunch of spoiled brats.  

Pertaining to the Northern Sub folks of course.  I"m at the southern edge of this and would gladly take half of it.  

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I think it is useful to look at that 12/1/07 storm for at least one thing. 

I went back and checked the obs at ORD, and they had like 7 hours of freezing rain.  There was fairly decent southeast sfc flow like there will be this time.  It was 28 when freezing rain began, so it took a number of hours to go from 28 to above 32.  Not that we're going to get a repeat outcome at ORD... that's not what I'm saying... but somebody farther south perhaps, depending on just how robust that warm layer aloft is and how much sleet cuts into the freezing rain time.

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2 hours ago, Chambana said:

Recap of this storm for Champaign 

1) Ice accretion early on Friday evening 

2) Saturday temps warm to the lower 40’s with 1.5” rainfall 

3) temps crash after precipitation ends causing flash freeze, with the cold snap on brown ground

4) the packers are in the NFC championship game

5) I hate this winter. It sucks. 

Every winter there sucks. I'm telling you, worst winter climate in North America. 

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Tick up in plumes at ord, still a huge spread tho with a few different camps. Can't honestly say I feel confident about my call, gonna need lackluster guidance to verify

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Locked n’ loaded in SEMI on the 00z NAM. Plumes ticked up a bit too at DTW and Selfridge. Could be a respectable little storm here. 

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well hopefully 0z nam isn't close to being right. Lol. Very unimpressive. Seems to be the trend this winter

:yikes: ~0.50” of liquid equivalent imby. That’s quite a bit drier then what was being modeled this morning. 

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Home Depot's Kitchen sink plumes just went through the roof for here on the 18Z runs,  a majority on the  on the kitchen side.  :weenie:

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Just now, OrdIowPitMsp said:

:yikes: ~0.50” of liquid equivalent imby. That’s quite a bit drier then what was being modeled this morning. 

Yea who knows. Precip field looks nice expanding in southern Plains but it does have to get through a lot of dry air from departing surface high

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29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Tick up in plumes at ord, still a huge spread tho with a few different camps. Can't honestly say I feel confident about my call, gonna need lackluster guidance to verify

Huge spread is an understatement. Rarely I feel you will see 6”+ spread this close to an event

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21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well hopefully 0z nam isn't close to being right. Lol. Very unimpressive. Seems to be the trend this winter

model watching time has ended, imho. 

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Huge spread is an understatement. Rarely I feel you will see 6”+ spread this close to an event

what's your call?  say .5" downtown....

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25 minutes ago, Baum said:

model watching time has ended, imho. 

Well hrrr might be the only one worth watching for shorter term trends. Honestly models tend not to do well with these tricky mixed precipitation events 

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z RGEM looks like it's coming in a tad warmer so far.  

Then it sort of flatlined/reversed after 24 hrs.  Good news.  :snowing:

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RGEM has bee fairly consistent the past several runs. GEM has been in close to lock site with to.


.

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Shows 6-8" of snow along/north of I-80.  Wow.

I think it's really going to be rate dependent tomorrow night for us.  Even moderate won't be enough to get it done past a certain time... will need heavy precip to have a shot.

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think it's really going to be rate dependent tomorrow night for us.  Even moderate won't be enough to get it done past a certain time... will need heavy precip to have a shot.

Even my office calls this a very impressive WAA scenario as currently modeled. Admitting that the traditional method generates more than the going call. Also pretty much said they went low-end with amounts. 

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6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Even my office calls this a very impressive WAA scenario as currently modeled. Admitting that the traditional method generates more than the going call. Also pretty much said they went low-end with amounts. 

They did and im pretty irritated they went with a WWA and not watch TBH.

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7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Even my office calls this a very impressive WAA scenario as currently modeled. Admitting that the traditional method generates more than the going call. Also pretty much said they went low-end with amounts. 

The RGEM is nice but I am expecting it to be overdone on the southern end with some of those snow amounts.  For every time when warm air aloft underperforms, you can probably come up with 8 or 10 times where it doesn't.  So, planning on sig mixing/ice here and will be pretty surprised if it doesn't. 

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