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Rjay

January 7th-8th Threat

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM is coming in more north and amped, big hit up to CNJ and Eastern LI. City is still meh

Very close

Keeps ticking north

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Very close

Keeps ticking north

This thing is juicy and bombing out, this would be a SECS if it was 75 miles more NW. This just seems like the winter the metro area can't get one to hit.

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5 minutes ago, sferic said:

Better run for the Catskills?

If you live in the catskills I'd be more closely tracking the weekend storm than this, this won't get that far north.  

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I don’t get why I can’t post my thinking here... why does it have to be deleted. Yanks and a lot of other guys post their maps and they don’t get deleted. 

49ADEA00-E047-4BFF-8767-282B7993892C.jpeg

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The forecast 500 mb pattern on the 1/7/2020 0z NAM has some similarities to that which was present on January 20-21, 1994.

NAM010720200z.jpg

Snowfall amounts on January 20, 1994 were as follows for select locations:

Atlantic City: 0.2"; Baltimore: 3.1"; New York City: None; Philadelphia: 0.2"; and, Washington, DC: 1.9".

At that time, a bitter Arctic air mass covered the East. This time around, that won't be the case. So, snowfall amounts will likely be lighter in Baltimore and Washington than they were back in 1994.

At present, taking into consideration the latest guidance and the forecast 500 mb pattern with some modifications, likely snowfall amounts for the January 7-8 system for the Middle Atlantic region include:

Atlantic City: 1" or less
Baltimore: 1"-2"
Harrisburg: 1" or less
Islip: 0.5" or less
New York City: 0.5" or less
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Sterling: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 1"-2"
Wilmington, DE: 1"-2"

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The forecast 500 mb pattern on the 1/7/2020 0z NAM has some similarities to that which was present on January 20-21, 1994.

NAM010720200z.jpg

Snowfall amounts on January 20, 1994 were as follows for select locations:

Atlantic City: 0.2"; Baltimore: 3.1"; New York City: None; Philadelphia: 0.2"; and, Washington, DC: 1.9".

At that time, a bitter Arctic air mass covered the East. This time around, that won't be the case. So, snowfall amounts will likely be lighter in Baltimore and Washington than they were back in 1994.

At present, taking into consideration the latest guidance and the forecast 500 mb pattern with some modifications, likely snowfall amounts for the January 7-8 system for the Middle Atlantic region include:

Atlantic City: 1" or less
Baltimore: 1"-2"
Harrisburg: 1" or less
Islip: 0.5" or less
New York City: 0.5" or less
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Sterling: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 1"-2"
Wilmington, DE: 1"-2"

Thanks Don.

I'm betting the over on Islip and AC. 

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Thanks Don.

I'm betting the over on Islip and AC. 

Islip should do well in this kind of setup they usually do. Atlantic City will probably have mixing issues but just to the west of them in SNJ could be the sweet spot. 

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5 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Non event for the board. Even ACY will have mixing issues.

I wouldn't say that just yet. This is really close to something interesting. The models this season have been horrendous.

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I wouldn't say that just yet. This is really close to something interesting. The models this season have been horrendous.

Let’s be real, models are not going to drastically change this close to the event.

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12 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Let’s be real, models are not going to drastically change this close to the event.

It has happened before. This is way too close to just dismiss it. Snj looks to be the prime spot with a few inches.

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21 minutes ago, David-LI said:

06z NAM looks great for the area, looks like a general 2-4

Hopefully it continues

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Good originating post: I'll drop my observations herein.  I've added a statistical graphic from the NWS.  It doesn't necessarily reflect ensembles issued after 0811z/8. 

NAM may be a little too strong but decent dendrite growth seen for an hour or 2 tonight in our NY metro area... am a little concerned about rain at the start, before being overcome top down with a change to wet snow, especially NYC.   You'll see later model guidance after this post, which hopefully directs us to a reasonable expectation of reality.  Right now, am thinking anywhere from 1-4" ne PA and nw NJ based on all the guidance i've seen so far. (event between ~6P-2A tonight).

Enjoy the day,  Walt

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-07 at 4.58.45 AM.png

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27 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Looks super warm though. Another car topper?

Yeah, your going to need good rates. So any real impact is south of the city where those rates will occur. Should look great in the trees again. Obviously even a 25 mile shift north will have huge implications. 

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